Elon Musk Betting Odds: New Political Party Gathers Pace
Betting sites are scrambling to set their odds on Elon Musk launching a new political party as his public fallout with Donald Trump intensifies.
Musk has threatened to create a “new political party that actually cares about the people” if Congress passes Trump’s trillion-dollar spending bill.
The world’s richest man is no stranger to frontline politics after serving as Trump’s right-hand man during the 2024 US election campaign. He even donated $250 million to the Republicans.
But Musk and Trump endured a sensational relationship meltdown this spring, leading many to wonder what the billionaire’s next move will be.
Musk is no longer leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) but is wedded to the idea of slashing federal spending.
Around 120,000 employees have lost their jobs since DOGE was created.
He argues Trump’s spending bill, which would end Medicare for 20 million Americans and cut taxes for the super wealthy, would wipe out those efficiencies and go against one of the Republican Party’s core manifesto pledges to cut spending.
Trump is proposing a $5 trillion rise in government spending to cover his proposed tax breaks.
And this has triggered a fresh round of threats from Musk.
Elon Musk New Party Odds
After saying any Republican who backs the bill “should hang their heads in shame”, Musk went on to tweet: “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”
This is a significant threat from one of the world’s most influential people, who helped Trump get elected last November.
There are, in theory, three ways Musk can derail Republican lawmakers whom he helped get into office last year.
The first is to fund rival candidates in the GOP primaries before the 2026 midterms, which is a threat he’s made before.
The second is to back Democrats in the election, which seems unlikely.
The third is to launch his own party to run in the midterms.
Political betting sites have already slashed their odds on Musk launching his own party this year from 4/1 (20% probability) to 23/20 (46.5%).
The shift in such a short space of time reflects a growing expectation that Musk will give it a shot.
Will Musk Defeat Trump?
Launching a new political party in America is fairly easy, but actually delivering a substantive impact is almost impossible.
The Republican and Democratic parties dominate US politics to such an extent that very few independents ever make it to Congress, let alone representatives of rival parties.
If Musk were to launch his own party, it would likely cost billions of dollars to become established. He’d need to source candidates for hundreds of districts across the country in time for the midterm elections in November 2026.
Then, of course, they’d have to win those elections to make his gamble worthwhile.
The Democrats are already tipped at 1/7 with betting apps to win the most seats in the House of Representatives, so Musk would likely take seats off the GOP were he to pitch candidates in these races.
That could significantly diminish Trump’s power in the lower chamber.
But what about the Senate? A handful of Republican seats are up for election in 2026, with more available on the Democrat side.
Musk could feasibly push down the middle to hoover up votes from both parties.
And yet, even if Musk’s new party prevented the GOP from commanding majorities in Congress, it still wouldn’t dethrone Trump.
It would merely lock the president into a perpetual stalemate.
Perhaps Musk is just playing hardball, trying to scare Republicans into not voting for Trump’s spending bill.
Should it pass, it undoes six months of work at DOGE. Maybe all this is just bravado – two rich men publicly going at each other to save face.
Yet Musk has the money to launch a significant rival party against the Republicans.
No wonder the bookies are watching this drama closely.
