Extra Champions League Spot Odds: Which League Will Get An Additional Slot?
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The Champions League will take on a new format next season and the best betting sites have opened a market on which two countries will be granted an additional qualification berth.
There will be 36 rather than 32 teams taking part in Europe’s premier competition from next season onwards.
One of those extra places will come through the qualifying rounds, while another will be awarded to the third-place finisher in the league that ranks fifth in the UEFA coefficient.
The remaining spots will go to the two top-performing countries in this season’s continental competitions. Each win in either the Champions League, Europa League or Europa Conference League brings two points, while a draw is worth one.
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Additional points are on offer depending on overall progress in the three aforementioned tournaments, which are all treated equally for the purposes of the coefficient.
For instance, a side would win an extra point for their league by advancing to the semi-finals this week.
The total points a league achieves is then divided by the number of sides it has in European tournaments, giving an average score per team.
So, which two countries will be awarded a fifth qualification spot in the 2024/25 Champions League? Let’s take a look at the market offered by football betting sites.
Italy Almost Certain To Have Additional Place
At odds of 1/6, Serie A is almost certain to be granted a fifth Champions League place. That is despite the fact that no Italian teams managed to advance to the last eight of that tournament this term.
One of AC Milan or Roma is guaranteed to reach the semi-finals of the Europa League, however, and Atalanta lead Liverpool 3-0 at the midway point of their tie. Over in the Europa Conference League, Fiorentina are favourites to progress ahead of Viktoria Plzen.
With a significant lead in top spot, it is not hard to see why betting apps believe this is almost a done deal for Serie A.
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Germany Narrow Favourites To Finish Second In Ranking
The coefficient pendulum swung back in Germany’s favour last week. As such, the Bundesliga is now priced at 4/6 to land an extra place in the Champions League for the inaugural edition of the new-look competition.
There are two head-to-head ties between German clubs and English teams taking place this week, and the outcome of those could go a long way to determining which country gets an additional spot.
Bayern Munich host Arsenal on Wednesday, before Bayer Leverkusen travel to West Ham United 24 hours later.
Borussia Dortmund's progress to the Champions League semi-finals at the expense of Atletico Madrid, will enhance the Bundesliga's chances of gaining an extra place in next season's competition.
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English Clubs Have Work To Do In Europe This Week
In an unwelcome piece of news for the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, England is by no means guaranteed a fifth Champions League berth next season.
With Liverpool and West Ham needing to overturn three and two-goal deficits this week, the remaining Premier League clubs have work to do. Indeed, the hopes of the league could hinge on Villa, Arsenal and Manchester City, whose ties are still very much alive.
Remember, second-leg victories for Liverpool and West Ham could still be important even if both clubs are ultimately eliminated, since any win on the night is worth two points.
For now, England is priced at 5/4, while City are favourites on new betting sites to win back-to-back Champions League titles.
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France Outsiders In Race For Extra Champions League Spot
France has a substantial gap to make up on Germany and England, as odds of 9/2 indicate. Realistically, Ligue 1 needs all three of its remaining representatives to do well to have a chance of landing that precious fifth place.
In order to help PSG, Marseille and Lille progress in Europe this season, Ligue 1 postponed their weekend fixtures ahead of this week's second legs. And it certainly helped PSG, who won 4-1 at Barcelona to advance to the Champions League semi-finals.
Marseille are up against it, with Benfica holding a 2-1 advantage going into this week’s Europa League quarter-final, second leg, while Lille find themselves 2-1 down to Aston Villa in the Europa Conference League.
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Spain Have Mountain To Climb In Coefficient Standings
There are no Spanish clubs remaining in the Europa League and the Europa Conference League, and Barcelona and Atletico Madrid were eliminated from the Champions League on Tuesday night.
La Liga’s only remaining hope in Europe this season lie at the feet of Real Madrid, who travel to Manchester City after their enthralling 3-3 draw in the Spanish capital last week.
Even if there had been an all-Spanish Champions League final this season, it would not necessarily have been enough for the league to climb into the top two of this ranking.
As their league sole representatives, winning the Champions League might not be enough for La Liga (5/1) to be given an extra place.
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