Wimbledon Odds: Djokovic And Nadal Way Ahead of Norrie and Kyrgios
Betting on Wimbledon men’s singles is once again focused on Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal as the pair carve their path to the final heading into the second week.
Betting sites have made no secret of the fact these two are way ahead of the chasing pack in the odds.
Djokovic has been the odds-on favourite to win Wimbledon since before the tournament started, while Nadal has been second-favourite ever since he won the French Open in June.
The veteran duo remain at the top of the men’s game and their continued success has arguably stifled the ‘Next Gen’ cohort from claiming their share of the grand slams.
However, Djokovic and Nadal’s longevity is also testament to just how gruelling a tournament Wimbledon’s men’s singles competition is.
Long five-set matches on energy-sapping grass isn’t for everyone, and it’s no surprise the likes of high-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime fell in the early rounds.
Heading into the second week, there’s a very real feeling that we will witness a first Djokovic-Nadal Wimbledon final since 2011.
And here’s how the odds are shaping up ahead of the quarter-finals.
Tennis betting sites have rarely ever priced a player as low as 1/3 to win Wimbledon with the fourth round not even complete. However, that’s how confident UK bookmakers are that Djokovic will win the championship here.
The Serb has a 75% chance of claiming what would be a 21st grand slam, according to the bookies and his path to the final so far has been relatively smooth.
Bar individual dropped sets against Kwon Soon-woo and Tim van Rijthoven, Djokovic has rarely been troubled.
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On Tuesday he faces 10th seed Jannik Sinner in the quarters on Centre Court. Djokovic beat the Italian in their two meetings last year without any trouble. At 1/3 his odds can’t really get much shorter, but they might actually expand if Djokovic faces Nadal in the final.
The only reason they’re so small right now is uncertainty over whether Nadal will make it to Sunday. If he doesn’t, the best bookmakers will be all-in on a Djokovic triumph.
Nadal was 7/1 to win Wimbledon when the tournament began, and his odds (now 4/1 on betting apps) are falling in line with each round he cruises through. The concern, though, is whether the Spaniard can maintain his muscular dominance over opponents on a trickier surface than his favoured clay.
Nadal is a workhorse that grinds opponents into the dust, but it’s now 12 years since he last won Wimbledon.
Concerns over a post-Roland Garros injury seem to have abated, but Nadal certainly has the tougher route to the final compared to Djokovic.
Bypass Botic van de Zandschulp on Monday and he could face 11th seed Taylor Fritz in the quarters, and then potentially Nick Kyrgios in the semis.
It’s going to be a brutal week for Nadal, which will likely end with him coming up against Djokovic seeking his fourth straight SW19 title.
Love him or hate him, there’s no denying Kyrgios attracts attention at Wimbledon. And the Australian has perhaps never had a better chance of winning a grand slam than he does this summer.
Kyrgios has overcome the hostility of the Wimbledon crowd to get past Tsitsipas and now faces the exciting American Brandon Nakashima in the last 16.
Win that and he’ll fancy his chances against Cristian Garin or Alex de Minaur in the quarters.
Is this Kyrgios’ year? Paddy Power are perhaps being kind by placing him as the third favourite at 8/1, but that reflects his path to the final.
Should Nadal fall before the semis, then Kyrgios is the best-placed player to face Djokovic come Sunday.
Such is the quality gap between Djokovic and the rest of the field that UK bookmakers are giving fourth-favourite Cameron Norrie just a 4.3% chance of winning Wimbledon 2022.
That’s even with Norrie already securing a place in the quarter-finals, where he will play unseeded Belgian David Goffin.
Norrie is now the “last Brit standing” and has flown under the radar, as attention in the early rounds focused on Andy Murray and Emma Raducanu. At 26 the Johannesburg-born Londoner has never made it this far at SW19… or any other slam for that matter.
Beat Goffin - over whom he has a 1-0 record - and Norrie will likely play Djokovic in the semis. He will be the big underdog here, and Djokovic is used to playing the villain on Centre Court.
If he somehow overcomes the Serb then he might have Nadal to contend with in the final. From this perspective, it’s understandable that Norrie is priced so high by bet365 at 25/1.
Best of the Rest
As 10th seed, Sinner earned his place in the quarter-finals after battling past Stan Wawrinka, John Isner and Carlos Alcaraz. But Djokovic will likely be a step too far for the Italian.
He is 11/2 with BetVictor to beat Djokovic, let alone to win the entire tournament at 22/1. In reality this could be the end of the road for Sinner, but punters may be tempted by his big price to cause an upset in the quarters.
One outsider who has witnessed plenty of movement in the tennis betting markets is De Minaur.
His odds fell from 30/1 to 20/1 with William Hill after he beat Liam Broady in the third round. Get past Garin on Monday, and he’ll perhaps see his route to the final open up.
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