Makerfield By-Election Odds: Favourite Burnham Far From Being A Certainty

As we enter the closing stretch of the most consequential by-election ever, betting sites rate Andy Burnham as the 1/4 favourite (William Hill) to hold Makerfield for Labour, and thus take a big step towards becoming the next Labour leader and prime minister.

Such odds may justify the 'strong' label, but not 'certainty'. 

In the last 25 by-elections for Westminster, two favourites were turned over at shorter odds - Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip; the Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham. Reform went into the Runcorn and Helsby by-election at similar odds, and only won by six votes.

Labour Lead Across All Polls

Considering that constituency-level polling is notoriously difficult, the consistency is pretty remarkable. This is becoming a common theme when Reform are a leading contender.

In Runcorn and Helsby, their average from two polls was 38%. Their result was 38.72%. In Gorton and Denton, they averaged 28%, and scored 28.7% at the by-election. 

If that is the case again, Burnham surely wins. The target to win is at least 44% and they are averaging 39.6%.

Makerfield By-Election Betting Odds:

Odds correct at time of publication at 1.15pm on June 15, 2026

Restore Britain Vote Could Collapse In Reform’s Favour

There is, however, an important difference with this by-election. In the other two, there was no strong far-right alternative and Reform very efficiently monopolised that segment of the vote. 

This time, Restore Britain have run a serious campaign and have made a polling impact. If it collapses to below 5% and switches to their ideological bedfellows in Reform, that 44% target becomes much more realistic. 

As this poll shows, their vote is more persuadable than the others, too.

By-Election Turnout Usually Favours Opposition Parties

As ever, turnout could be the decisive factor. In both by-elections and May’s local elections, Reform voters turned out reliably. 

That isn’t surprising. The common theme of by-elections is motivated opposition to the government. Furthermore, the demographics one associates with Reform are very reliable voters - older, homeowners, long registered at the same address. 

In contrast, Labour are historically poor at getting their vote out for opposite reasons. Their voters are generally younger, more likely to be renters, less likely to be registered.

More generally, governing parties very rarely retain their general election vote share in by-elections. In Runcorn and Helsby - a good indicator because Labour had no serious rival for the non-Reform vote - Labour’s share fell by around a quarter compared to the 2024 general election. Nationwide, they are currently polling at around half that 2024 number.

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Labour Relying On Burnham Factor

Of course, the Burnham factor may counter these trends. Whilst representing Labour, he isn’t really representing the government, and is in some ways running against it. 

He has unique local credentials and is hugely popular in the region. Were he not the candidate, Reform would be more or less certainties to win.

For what they are worth, and these should always be taken with a pinch of salt, the ‘vibes’ do point to Burnham. 

The campaign is reportedly confident and it seems the parliamentary party is readying itself for a coronation, rather than dreading what would be a catastrophic defeat which would plunge Labour into a perhaps irreversible crisis.

All things considered, the signals are that Burnham will get over the line, but with all those known unknowns, he does not appeal as a bet. For those who wish to take him on, a couple of plausible alternatives to backing Reform may appeal. 

These are bets that could plausibly come in, even if Burnham wins. Both are on Labour’s vote share. Star Sports offers 11/4 about under 44% and Ladbrokes goes 7/4 about the 40.00-44.99% band.

Separately, 8/13 about Restore Britain scoring under 10% with Star Sports looks banker material. They haven’t polled that high as yet and one must expect at least some sort of squeeze on their vote in the final days.

Who will win the Makerfield by-election? Leave your comments in the box below!