Makerfield By-Election Odds: Stakes Could Not Be Higher As Burnham Plots Return

Throughout the past decade or so of high political drama, the betting community has been treated to some of the most fascinating and consequential by-elections in history. 

Only recently, we saw Keir Starmer's position destabilised by Labour’s third place in Gorton and Denton. Previously a Plaid Cymru gain in Caerphilly signalled a decisive shift in Welsh politics. 

Now, in Makerfield, we have a truly unprecedented contest and scenario moving forward.

Burnham Short Odds-On To Win Makerfield

At the time of writing, betting sites rate Andy Burnham a 4/11 chance (William Hill) to hold the seat for Labour, compared to Reform at 3/1 (Betfred) and 12/1 for their far-right rivals Restore Britain (Star Sports).

The voters of this Greater Manchester constituency are doing more than merely choosing a new MP on June 18. They are probably choosing or rejecting a new prime minister. 

Makerfield By-Election Betting Odds:

Victory here could be the making of Andy Burnham, whilst defeat might signal the irreversible demise of the Labour Party. A victory for Reform would alter their status to 'government-in-waiting'.

In addition to the political fallout, there are huge implications across a wide range of betting markets, which may be on the verge of settlement or could drag on for years.

Leadership Is Burnham’s For The Taking

Let's start with the obvious - the Labour leadership and next prime minister. During that chaotic week following the local elections, Labour MPs made it quite clear where they would like the party to go next. The answer is not Wes Streeting.

The health secretary’s resignation was well trailed and clearly part of a choreographed plan to unseat Starmer and gain a headstart on rivals. 

But Streeting didn’t trigger a leadership contest, because he knew he would lose. He may not even have had the required 81 endorsements from MPs.

The so-called 'soft left' faction of MPs were ready to put up an opponent if Streeting moved - probably a reluctant Ed Miliband. 

Angela Rayner put her own ambitions aside and joined forces in pushing to get Burnham back into parliament, as she had done prior to his rejection by the party's ruling body of his candidacy in Gorton and Denton.

Subsequent polls of members have confirmed that any of these three alternatives would thrash Streeting in a contest.

Now that Burnham has his chance, it is safe to assume that if he wins Makerfield, he will soon replace Starmer. Given the scale of support, he may win unchallenged.

Labour Dare Not Take Makerfield For Granted

Victory in Makerfield, however, is far from certain. This is not some ideal, cherrypicked constituency, as had been speculated. 

It is one where Electoral Calculus were projecting a big Reform win. This plan is a huge gamble on Burnham’s unique appeal in the region.

Burnham is vastly more popular than his party in the region where he has been mayor, elected three times with no less than 63% of the vote across Greater Manchester. He even has local ties dating back to his schooldays. 

Just as his chance can't be measured like a generic Labour candidate, this can't be framed as a normal by-election.

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The government candidate is a critic of the government, running on a 'change' ticket. 

Locals are well aware they are voting for a new prime minister, which will put their own constituency on the map, and potentially deliver meaningful benefits to the area.

One might also draw similarities with the performance of party leaders in their own constituencies at general elections. They consistently outperform their parties.

These are considerable advantages and promising news for those who followed the strong advice in April, on these pages, to back Burnham at 11/1. He remains the tip and we aren’t hedging.

Defeating Reform Would Boost Burnham’s Brand

If he pulls it off, the ‘King of the North’ will arrive in Westminster as a conquering hero; the man who beat Reform and can do so across hundreds of marginal constituencies with similar demographics and dynamics. 

Already in expectation, the odds about Labour winning most seats have crashed across the board, with Betway's 9/4 now the best offer.

Presumably, Burnham’s supporters would then take whatever means necessary, either via a direct challenge or behind the scenes, to force out Starmer. 

A contest, or coronation, would take place over the summer, with the new PM in place by the Labour conference at the end of September. 

That process explains prohibitive odds of 8/13 about a July-September exit, and 2/7 about 2026 (Star Sports). 

But this timeline is no certainty. What happens if Burnham loses?

Burnham Loss Could Save Starmer And Plunge Labour Into Deep Crisis

In short, all of those markets are transformed. Burnham might seek another seat but his reputation would take a huge hit. Reform will likely go odds-on to win most seats at the next general election. 

The panic among Labour MPs would accelerate, although they might well stick with Starmer for the time being. Expect those odds-on quotes about his exit date to disappear.

Another market with transformative potential is the date of the next UK general election. Currently 2029 - the latest it can be - is 6/5 with one of the betting apps.

If Labour lose Makerfield, expect this to harden up, as they will want the longest possible term in government. 

But if Burnham wins, having run on a change ticket, he may well want to seek his own mandate, especially if receiving a boost in the polls during an early, honeymoon period as PM. 

Speculation would be inevitable and Betfred's 11/2 about a 2027 election will attract plenty of interest. 

As ever in politics betting, the settlement of one market creates new ones and increases the salience of others. 

Who will win the Makerfield by-election? Leave your comments in the box below!