Tanya Stevenson's Welsh National Ante Post Preview, Odds & Analysis
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‘Tis the season to be jolly, and the 2023-24 jumps season so far has been full of fun, so many notes made by yours truly already.
My life is full of numbers and stats, always has been, always will be, brought up where my first languages were odds, percentages and betting on all sport not just greyhounds and horseracing.
For example, all eyes on Ally Pally from Friday, the PDC World Darts Championship that’s me sorted in between the great sport on our courses.
At least the weather wont scupper that!! Nor should it stop the Welsh Grand National. Generally if it missing out on it's actual date, Wednesday December 27, it will get another crack in January and betting sites have odds at the ready for this year's renewal.
Monbeg Genius at 6/1 seems like value, he ran a superb trial for this when finishing third at Newbury. I know many of you, me included would have preferred he won at Newbury but that didn’t happen, so move on and stare down 6/1 at this point when on the day he could be half those odds through weight of support and facts.
It still resonates that he was third to Corach Rambler and Fastorslow in the Ultima at Cheltenham, he is unbeaten in three runs at Chepstow and half the winners since 2000 have course form.
Jonjo O’Neill has won the race twice 2002 Mini Sensation and 2010 Synchronised. He is the rightful favourite and should be shorter in my mind.
I went back quite a way to check out how favourites priced 3/1 or shorter fared, since 1988 there have been 18 favourites in that bracket, of which an encouraging eight won, four finished second and two were third.
So only four were out of the first three! Should his price contract that much, there are no fears.
The reason for picking the Welsh Grand National as my first ante-post column was the sheer exuberance of two horses on Saturday just gone, one Chambard at Aintree and the other Nassalam.
Let’s start with Chambard who is unlikely to run at Chepstow, for good reason, connections see the value in going to Sandown for a lucrative Veterans race prize in January.
He’s not been to Chepstow before, it's been stated he will appreciate the extra week and connections will want to get compensation after unseating at the ninth in the race last year. It’s one to remember for Sandown.
While attention was being drawn to Aintree and Sandown on Saturday, Nassalam ran a peach of a race to win the Welsh Grand National Trial, he was eased near the finish.
Caoilin Quinn did not fuss he just let Nassalam flow, it was a joy, the way he attacked the fences, sheer enthusiasm, no inhibitions, just beautiful fluency, perhaps all was there to see in his Grand Sefton fourth the race before.
The penalty on that effort ought not be too much of a hindrance.
He did it on heavy ground, he has to be another who contracts in the market, quite simply he is overlooked in plain sight.
Truckers Lodge ran another belter at Sandown and there is no question he loves Chepstow, if he takes his chance on December 27, he will be running in the race for the fifth time.
He was second in 2019, seventh in 2020, third in 2021 and fourth last year, he will be hard to keep out of the frame but I would be tempted like Chambard to go to Sandown.
Mind you he is a sprightly 11-year-old but the age stat counts against him as since 1993 only four horses aged 10 or over have won.
At present Paul Nicholls has four entered, I would be chuffed if Broken Halo was allowed to take his chance as approaching two out he looked a massive danger to stable companion Truckers Lodge.
Currently priced at 66/1 with betting apps surely that gives out more about his chances of going to Chepstow than that if he ran in the race? 66-1 would be huge.
There will be mentions and shout outs for Iwilldoit and Highland Hunter who were first and second in 2021, Iwilldoit is always going to be a danger as he won the Classic Chase at Warwick off a 383 day break.
He ran an eye-catching second in a hurdle at Aintree in November, I just think the weight will anchor him this time.
Highland Hunter unseated rider at the Chair in the Becher Chase, only six fences through the 21 so it was too early to tell how he would have gone, though there was support in the market.
Since 2000 stats highlight the need to finish in the first four on previous run before Chepstow.
Which also applies to The Big Breakaway last year’s second, who found himself pulling up at Aintree, in fairness he was hampered at the Chair and he showed some sparkle for a few fences before he got tired.
The Galloping Bear could well set the early pace, a Surrey National winner he loves a test of stamina, he was brilliant when second in the Eider Chase earlier in the year but had to concede too much weight to Kitty’s Light in the end. He has yet to complete in two runs at Chepstow which is a negative.
Only now do I mention Super Survivor, he is second favourite, 27 down the list for a race with a maximum of 20, he has only had four races over the bigger obstacles and I sense he wouldn’t want it coming up heavy, he was a non-runner at Ffos Las in the West Wales National on soft due to that being unsuitable ground.
He has definite improvement but has a lack of experience in a big field, yes that old cliché plus being only 7/1 with horse racing betting sites would be a deterrent.
One of the reasons is that at 40/1 is Make Me A Believer, he is two places above Super Survivor, he too has only had four races over the bigger obstacles, he can handle heavy though.
And back in 2021 he was third to Adrimel and Mint Condition in a Grade 2 Hurdle at Warwick.
His Exeter win last time has been franked by some good performances by those behind him so weighing up the 7/1 Super Survivor or the 40/1 Make Me A Believer, preference is for the latter. I digress.
This fabulous race is only two weeks away. Nassalam is the pick at 10/1 generally. There’s a couple of outsiders to ponder, Make Me A Believer 40/1 and Broken Halo at 66/1.
Coral Welsh National - 27th December 2.50pm Chepstow
Ante Post Selection - Tanya Stevenson
Nassalam To Win - 10/1 @ Bet365
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