Valero Texas Open Betting Tips: 5 Panel Selections From TPC San Antonio
With just one week to go before the 90th edition of the US Masters, the PGA Tour heads to TPC San Antonio for the Texas Open.
Brian Harman is the defending champion and can be backed at 66/1 on betting sites to retain his title, but a high-quality field makes it an excellent curtain-raiser ahead of the trip to Augusta.
Nine players from the world’s top 20 are honing their skills before the year’s first major, including Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley and Collin Morikawa, making his first appearance since pulling out of The Players Championship after one hole with a lower-back injury.
Fleetwood, Aberg and Henley are all priced between 14/1 and 16/1, while 2021 champion Jordan Spieth is a best-priced 18/1. Morikawa, meanwhile, is available at 20/1 with Bet365 at the time of writing.
The Panel have already picked out five each-way tips for next week’s Masters and they have three outrights for this week’s Texas Open betting tips.
There have been several triple-priced winners in recent years such as JJ Spaun (2022), Corey Conners (2019) and Andrew Landry (2018), who were all 200/1 when they won the Texas Open.
But, with many elite players using this tournament as preparation for Georgia, The Panel are not looking too far down the field for potential winners.
The par-72 Oaks Course plays in excess of 7,400 yards and recent winners have fared high in the Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green metrics, so our body of experts are looking in those areas for their selections.
The dense brush and mature oaks lining every fairway punish the wayward driver, and the elevated, firm greens will swallow up any approach that isn't precisely struck.
Wind is usually a factor in Texas and thunderstorms are expected over the first three days, with Saturday the worst of the lot, according to the forecast, although Sunday looks dry.
It promises to be an exciting four days in the build-up to The Masters, and in addition to the three outrights, The Panel have selected one first-round leader and a top 20 for this week’s Texas Open predictions, which begin with an elite ball-striker.
Texas Open Betting Tips: Straka Fits The Bill
Sepp Straka has been very consistent since missing the cut at The American Express in his opening event of the season and is expected to go well this week.
The Austrian has four top 20s in his last five PGA Tour events, including a runners-up spot at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he finished just one shot behind champion Morikawa.
Straka also had an excellent week at The Players Championship where a weekend 72-71 ensured a share of eighth spot at Sawgrass.
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His performances at the Oaks Course hardly catch the eye, but he finished just outside the top 20 in his last visit three years ago and his game seems suited for this lay-out.
The world number 12 is an accurate sort, finding fairways 62% of the time, and is inside the top 15 in both the SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green statistics this season, skills which should come in useful on this difficult track.
He is up against some tough competitors, but this four-time PGA Tour winner looks worth a whirl at 25/1 with several betting apps.
Texas Open Betting Tips 1: Sepp Straka 25/1 (Each-Way) - With Betfred (Five Places)
Texas Open Betting Tips:
- Sepp Straka 25/1 (Each-Way) - With Betfred (Five Places)
- Alex Noren 40/1 (Each-Way) - With BetMGM (Six Places)
- Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (Each-Way) - With Coral (10 Places)
- Denny McCarthy 50/1 First-Round Leader (Each-Way) - With William Hill (Five Places)
- Kim Seong-hyeon 5/1 Top 20 - With BetMGM
Texas Open Predictions: Noren A Dark Horse
Alex Noren enjoyed a fantastic 2025 in which he won the British Masters and the PGA Championship at Wentworth in the space of four wonderful weeks.
Those victories mean Noren has 12 European/DP World Tour titles to his name, yet surprisingly the 43-year-old Swede has never won on the PGA Tour.
He went close in December, though, when he lost a play-off to Hideki Matsuyama at the Hero World Challenge and his form in the last few weeks has been consistent.
Twelfth place at Riviera came in between two top 30s at Pebble Beach and Bay Hill, and he also played well at Sawgrass where he never shot over par all week.
Noren has a decent record at the Oaks Course where he followed a T15 in 2023 with a T14 a year later and his SG: Tee-to-Green and Approach numbers are good enough to suggest he could go well.
Adding fuel to the fire, his average scoring at TPC San Antonio over the last five years places him joint second-best among all players with at least eight rounds on the course.
Noren’s driving accuracy percentage is similar to Straka’s and, at 40/1, he could be a danger in a high-class field.
Texas Open Betting Tips 2: Alex Noren 40/1 (Each-Way) - With BetMGM (Six Places)
Texas Open Tips: Take Thorbjorn To Fell Oaks
The last of this week’s outright tips is another Scandinavian with plenty of European Tour titles to his name, yet is still chasing his first on the PGA Tour.
Thorbjorn Olesen is a proven operator at TPC San Antonio. He finished 14th here in 2024 and then improved to a tied-fifth last year, which came in the brutal, wind-swept final round where only seven players finished under par on Sunday.
That's not luck. That's course fit. And it's no coincidence when you consider that Olesen is, at his best, an exceptional links-style ball-striker who has repeatedly shown the ability to manage his game in windy conditions.
He arrives this week in fine nick. He was tied 14th at last week's Texas Children's Houston Open, where he registered +1.40 strokes gained with his approach play across the tournament - that ranked ninth among all players who made the cut.
The Dane’s SG: Tee-to-Green aggregate across the Texas swing has been excellent and positions him well for a course that values exactly that metric above all else.
Olesen ranks inside the top 25 in both the SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green standings, and looks excellent value at 50/1 to end his PGA Tour title drought, although The Panel are taking the 10 places with Coral at a slightly lower price.
Texas Open Betting Tips 3: Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (Each-Way) - With Coral (10 Places)
Texas Open First-Round Leader Tips: McCarthy To Hit Ground Running
The tee-off times have yet to be published at the time of writing and with the wind expected to pick up in the afternoon, players from the morning wave could have an advantage, although they may have to contend with rain.
In any case, The Panel like the chances of Denny McCarthy to top the first-round leaderboard after Thursday’s play at 50/1 with Ladbrokes.
McCarthy has an excellent record at San Antonio where his average scoring round of 70.06 is second only to Spieth among all players with at least 16 rounds on this course.
Furthermore, the American has made fast starts here before, sitting just two shots off the lead after the opening round in 2022 when he made seven consecutive birdies on the back nine for a closing 63 to force a play-off with Akskay Bhatia which he lost.
McCarthy tied for fourth after the opening round two years ago and although he has not been hot on a Thursday lately, he played well at the Houston Open (T12) and Copperhead (T26), and should do well at a course he loves.
Texas Open Betting Tips 4: Denny McCarthy 50/1 First-Round Leader (Each-Way) - With William Hill (Five Places)
Texas Open Top-20 Tips: Kim Can Compete Again At San Antonio
Kim Seong-hyeon’s scoring average at TPC San Antonio is exactly the same as Noren’s (70.5) which makes sense as they both finished in the same places in their two appearances in 2023 and 2024.
Unfortunately, the South Korean’s Approach and Tee-to-Green numbers have not been great this season, but he produced one of his best performances on the PGA Tour recently, finishing seventh at the Valspar Championship where his Strokes Gained figures were positive almost across the board.
Kim struggled at MemorialPpark last week, but The Panel are hopeful the memory muscle will kick in when he enters the Oaks Course property and that he can dig deep for another big display.
He finds fairways around 59% of the time and his putting has been very good this year, so The Panel are on board Kim finishing in the top 20 for a third successive time at 5/1 with BetMGM.
Texas Open Betting Tips 5: Kim Seong-hyeon 5/1 Top 20 - With BetMGM
Who do you think will win the Texas Open? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below!
