US Midterms Primary Odds 2026: Will Platner Scandals Derail Democrats?

Four more states are holding primaries this week. Maine, South Carolina, Nevada and North Dakota will select candidates to fight November’s mid-term elections. 

Besides the short and long-term betting implications, watch out for signals which will tell us plenty about the condition of US politics and what it takes to win nowadays, specifically in November.

The biggest headlines at this stage revolve around a race which will prove pivotal in determining which party controls the Senate. 

At present, betting sites rate that close to a toss-up, with the Republicans available at a best-priced 4/5 with William Hill, compared with 21/20 for the Democrats (BetMGM).

    

All Eyes On Maine

If the Democrats don’t win Maine, it is extremely unlikely they will win the Senate. 

The betting currently favours them, and polls record their presumptive nominee 5% upwards ahead of long-term incumbent Susan Collins. 

However, the nature and history of their candidate carries both serious risk, and potential reward, to their prospects both in Maine and nationally.

Maine Senate Odds:

Graham Platner’s campaign has been phenomenal. This 41 year-old Marine Corps veteran blew away the incumbent Governor Janet Mills with an energetic, populist campaign. 

Undeniably progressive, Platner is for universal healthcare, strengthening unions and attacks the power of billionaires in politics. 

Significantly, given his military background, Platner is against US involvement in what he calls "pointless wars". 

He has the backing of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and is drawing huge, passionate crowds to his rallies.

Multiple Scandals Could Plague General Election Campaign

Platner is, however, plagued by scandals from the past. Earlier, he shrugged off various extreme and offensive online comments, plus revelations of a tattoo, since covered, which resembled a Nazi symbol. 

In the past fortnight, it has emerged he sent multiple women sexual messages and the New York Times reported allegations of threatening behaviour towards women.

All these allegations have been either denied or dismissed as being in his distant past, when he was suffering from PTSD. 

There has been some febrile talk of him withdrawing, without any realistic substance. The campaign continues to march full steam ahead, with many of his vocal supporters dismissing the scandals as an 'establishment witch-hunt'. 

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He will win the primary and, according to betting signals from the US, by well above a 50% margin.

Take out the left-wing positions and it all sounds rather Trumpian. Perhaps, exactly the standard-bearer Democrats require to cut across the political divide and appeal to at least some of Trump’s MAGA base by shedding their toxic 'DC elites' image. 

Historic sex scandals, in particular, do not seem to matter these days.

Equally, however, often the primary process fails to weed out candidates who later become a liability. 

Many of those DC elites are panicking. The well-oiled Republican war chest will throw everything at Platner, and his controversial backstory is sure to remain one of the prominent stories moving forward. 

Could Iran War Bring South Carolina Into Play?

In South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham is in a similarly dominant position in his Republican primary, having already seen off what was once billed as a serious challenge from Project 2024 architect Paul Dans, and gained President Trump's invaluable endorsement.

Again, though, this race is interesting moving forward. South Carolina is usually a deep red state, but the Republicans are merely strong, rather than overwhelming favourites. 

In the event of a 'blue wave', or even tsunami, the latest odds suggest this state could become vulnerable.

South Carolina Senate Odds:

Plus, as one of the most pro-war voices in Trump’s circle, Graham's result in November may be hampered by the widely unpopular Iran conflict. 

There is much talk of MAGA being split over the war, since Trump has reversed his former anti-war positioning. 

At present, that seems more of a division among the hyper-engaged X/podcast audience than grassroots Republicans, who continue to support Trump overwhelmingly on every front. 

But the independent voters, who determine every close race, are strongly critical of the Trump administration, especially the war, and Graham’s positioning could be a liability with them.

Mace Set To Pay Price For Crossing Trump Over Epstein Files

We have just seen the remarkable power of the Trump endorsement, when Kentucky representative Thomas Massie was defeated after falling foul of the president, by leading the campaign to release the Epstein files. 

That ongoing scandal looks set to take out another prominent South Carolina Republican.

South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Odds:

Nancy Mace was once regarded a Trump loyalist and even attracted some chatter around the betting to be his running mate in 2024. She was the early favourite to win the gubernatorial race. 

Her vote to release the Epstein files, however, has made the president an enemy and he has just endorsed the state’s lieutenant governor, Pamela Evette. 

Mace could still plausibly make a run-off against Evette, but her likely heavy defeat will send another clear message to Republican candidates everywhere. 

Cross Trump at your peril.

* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.