US Election Swing State Odds: Betting Has Harris And Trump Close In Pennsylvania

UK betting sites expect the Democrats to win the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania at the 2024 US election but aren’t sure Kamala Harris will be the next president.

Pennsylvania is considered a must for Harris if she is to beat Donald Trump this November.

The state carries 19 electoral college votes and polling data suggests it’s a toss-up between Harris and Trump right now.

PA famously voted for Trump in 2016 before swinging back to the Democrats and Joe Biden four years later. 

This time, the former president is tied with Harris on 47% in the state, but he has a large lead over his rival with male voters.

Political betting sites have been tracking the Pennsylvania odds for months and expected Trump to walk the state before Biden exited the race earlier this summer.

Now the Keystone State is back up for grabs and both parties are throwing millions of dollars in campaign funds at Pennsylvania voters in an attempt to earn their support.

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Pennsylvania Election Odds

Latest Pennsylvania Election Betting Odds

Two months out from the election and there is not much to split Harris and Trump in the Pennsylvania betting markets. 

The Democrats currently lead with odds of 5/6 at Betfred, compared to 10/11 for the Republicans.

That suggests a 2.1% lead for the Dems, which is well within the margin of error that pollsters carry when they predict the election results.

In reality, Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck here. Interestingly, the bookmakers currently rate Trump as more likely to win the overall election (5/6), even if Harris wins in PA.

Harris needs to win Pennsylvania. The 19 votes that the state carries is crucial for her drive to claim 270.

Trump can rely on other swing states to make up ground if he loses here, but Pennsylvania is all-or-bust for Harris.

Who Will Win Pennsylvania?

Accurately predicting the Pennsylvania presidential election result is almost impossible at this stage. 

August saw both candidates lead by a few points in selected polls, but neither carved open a clear, consistent lead.

This state could be decided by a few counties, and a few thousand voters. There are three ‘pivot counties’ that have flipped red and blue over the past two decades. 

Barack Obama and Trump each won Erie County, Luzerne County and Northampton County in 2012 and 2016 respectively. Trump then retained Luzerne in 2020.

Combined, these three counties alone are responsible for 6.6% of the state’s overall turnout and provide a major swing effect depending on which way they turn.

So, who will win Pennsylvania? Betting apps think Harris will edge it but realistically this state is on a knife edge. 

That’s a worrying position for the Dems to be in, while Trump’s team will be happy with where they’re at this close to the election.

Why Is Pennsylvania A Swing State?

Between 1860 and 1932 Pennsylvania was a reliable Republican state in the US presidential election. Franklin D. Roosevelt changed all that when he won with 56.88% of the vote in 1936. 

Since then the state has swung red and blue, with the Democrats enjoying a spell of loyalty between 1992 and 2012.

Trump’s remarkable victory in 2012 bright Pennsylvania back into play as a core swing state. 

The Democrats have started to rely on PA’s 19 electoral college votes, but now they have to scramble for them.

The state has a heady mix of voters due to its diversity. Rural counties generally backed Trump in 2020, while Biden claimed the votes of those living in cities. 

Meanwhile, Philadelphia usually supports the Dems and Pittsburgh backs the GOP. The difference between Biden and Trump was about 80,000 votes four years ago.

However, the true reason PA is a swing state is because of the smaller urban areas of Harrisburg, Allentown-Bethlehem, Erie and Scranton that regularly flip.