Tuchel's Penalty Five: Data Says England Finally Have Shooters To End The Hurt
Germany are home. The Netherlands are home. Between them, they tell the full story of how penalties end your World Cup.
Germany were unbeaten in four World Cup shootouts before 2026, the benchmark for penalty excellence, and it still was not enough.
The Netherlands have a World Cup shootout record (one from four) that mirrors England's, and it was not enough either. Different histories, identical result.
England did not need the lottery against Norway. Jude Bellingham's extra-time winner settled a 2-1 quarter-final and spared Tuchel's side a shootout altogether. The theory stays untested, but the opponent has changed and the stakes have gone up.
England face Argentina in the World Cup semi-final on Wednesday, 15 July, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and this is a different order of test. Argentina have won six of their seven World Cup shootouts, the best record of any nation left in the tournament, and Emiliano Martinez has never lost one. If this goes to penalties, England are not facing a rival hoping history repeats. They are facing the side history actually favours.
Gambling.com's BetBuilderAI has run the numbers on England's entire squad and produced an optimal penalty order.
The findings are striking. This is the highest-converting group of five penalty takers England have ever had available at a World Cup, and the recommended order has a logic that goes beyond pure statistics.
Why This Order And Why It Matters
Harry Kane (1st penalty) is the obvious call and the right one. 88.4% career conversion rate, 24 penalties scored for England, and a tournament that already has him two goals behind the Golden Boot pace after his spot-kick against Mexico in the last 16.
When Kane walks up first, there is no cold-start problem. England score, and every taker that follows does so knowing the pressure is already on Argentina.
Ivan Toney (2nd penalty) This is where BetBuilderAI's data makes its strongest case. At 93.5%, Toney has the highest penalty conversion rate in the squad. Not marginally higher. Significantly.
Placing him second means England can post two penalties before the shootout has drawn breath. That combination, Kane then Toney, is as close to a guaranteed 2-0 start as you can engineer with five spot-kicks, and it is exactly the kind of fast start that puts doubt in front of a goalkeeper as decorated as Martinez.
Bukayo Saka (3rd penalty) carries a number and a narrative. The number is 84.2%.
The narrative is Euro 2020, when Saka stepped up for the fifth kick at Wembley, missed, and handed Italy the trophy.
Since then, he has been perfect for England: five penalties, five goals. The miss is four years old. The data says it is dealt with.
Marcus Rashford (4th penalty) at 91.3% makes the case for itself. His career conversion rate is the second-highest among the five. The Barcelona move has brought him back to a level England had largely stopped expecting.
He has something to prove at international level. Put him in a high-stakes fourth kick and that motivation becomes an asset.
Jude Bellingham (5th penalty) rounds it out with a conversion rate of 80% and a temperament that makes the percentage feel conservative.
Bellingham has spent his entire career seeking out the biggest possible moment, and he has already provided two of England's biggest so far this tournament, doubling up against Mexico and striking the extra-time winner against Norway.
The fifth kick, the one that can seal it or extend it, is the position that demands exactly that profile. It would be strange to put him anywhere else.
History Is Bad. Context Got Worse. But The Data Is Good
England's World Cup penalty record is one of the sport's bleakest statistics. Now it faces the toughest possible opponent.
One win from four penalty shootouts at World Cups is the number England carry into every knockout game that gets tight.
Germany had one of the great penalty reputations in world football, unbeaten in four World Cup shootouts before this summer. It did not save them.
The Netherlands have a World Cup shootout record identical to England's, one win from four. It did not save them either. No history is bulletproof. No reputation survives a bad night on the spot.
Argentina are the exception that tests that rule. Six wins from seven World Cup shootouts is the best record left in the competition, and it is not just the outfield players.
Emiliano Martinez has never lost a shootout in an Argentina shirt, saved three penalties across the 2022 quarter-final against the Netherlands and the final against France, and remains the closest thing football has to a genuine penalty specialist between the posts.
The good news for England is the trend is moving in the right direction.
Three wins from four in major tournament shootouts under Sir Gareth Southgate, including a perfect five from five kicks against Switzerland at Euro 2024.
And the group of players available to Tuchel carries conversion rates that previous England managers could only have imagined: Toney at 93.5%, Rashford at 91.3% and Kane at 88.4%.
Jordan Pickford is behind them, fully fit and with no fresh injury concerns in the squad heading into Atlanta. He saved in 2018 and he saved in 2024.
He is not a passive presence in a shootout, and this is the first time this tournament England's own goalkeeper will be matched against a rival with a comparable reputation.
The Bottom Line
Germany went out on penalties. The Netherlands went out on penalties. Nobody is safe, not even a team with a good record. England have, according to the data, the best penalty squad in the nation's World Cup history. Argentina, on the data, have the best penalty pedigree in this tournament.
The order BetBuilderAI recommends is not arbitrary. It front-loads the pressure with two elite converters, delivers the Saka redemption narrative at the midpoint, and ends with the one player in the squad who would genuinely choose to go last.
Argentina will not roll over, and Messi, expected fit after a knock in the quarter-final, ensures this semi-final will not be settled by reputation alone in normal time either. The knockout round is where tournaments are decided, not won.
However, if their clash with Argentina ends with spot-kicks, England's argument is not faith or tradition or "it's coming home." Their argument is with the numbers, against the one side whose own numbers say they should be favourites.
Argentina have Martinez and a shootout record most nations would kill for. England have Toney at 93.5%, Pickford in goal and BetBuilderAI tells them exactly who to pick and when.
Use the data. Get the order right. That is all that is left to do.
