Tuchel's Penalty Five: Data Says England Finally Have Shooters To End The Hurt
Germany are home. The Netherlands are home. Between them, they tell the full story of how penalties end your World Cup.
Germany were unbeaten in four World Cup shootouts before 2026, the benchmark for penalty excellence and it still was not enough.
The Netherlands have a World Cup shootout record (one from four) that mirrors England's, and it was not enough either. Different histories, identical result.
The 2026 tournament has delivered one clear lesson - history does not protect you, but preparation might.
England face DR Congo in the World Cup Round of 32 on Wednesday (5pm UK time). If it goes to penalties, history says be nervous. The data says the preparation is there, if Tuchel uses it.
Gambling.com's BetBuilderAI has run the numbers on England's entire squad and produced an optimal penalty order.
The findings are striking. This is the highest-converting group of five penalty takers England have ever had available at a World Cup, and the recommended order has a logic that goes beyond pure statistics.
Why This Order And Why It Matters
Harry Kane (1st penalty) is the obvious call and the right one. 88.4% career conversion rate, 24 penalties scored for England.
When Kane walks up first, there is no cold-start problem. England score, and every taker that follows does so knowing the pressure is already on DR Congo.
Ivan Toney (2nd penalty) This is where BetBuilderAI's data makes its strongest case. At 93.5%, Toney has the highest penalty conversion rate in the squad. Not marginally higher. Significantly.
Placing him second means England can post two penalties before the shootout has drawn breath. That combination, Kane then Toney, is as close to a guaranteed 2-0 start as you can engineer with five spot-kicks.
Bukayo Saka (3rd penalty) carries a number and a narrative. The number is 84.2%.
The narrative is Euro 2020, when Saka stepped up for the fifth kick at Wembley, missed, and handed Italy the trophy.
Since then, he has been perfect for England: five penalties, five goals. The miss is four years old. The data says it is dealt with.
Marcus Rashford (4th penalty) at 91.3% makes the case for itself. His career conversion rate is the second-highest among the five. The Barcelona move has brought him back to a level England had largely stopped expecting.
He has something to prove at international level. Put him in a high-stakes fourth kick and that motivation becomes an asset.
Jude Bellingham (5th penalty) rounds it out with a conversion rate of 80% and a temperament that makes the percentage feel conservative.
Bellingham has spent his entire career seeking out the biggest possible moment. The fifth kick, the one that can seal it or extend it, is the position that demands exactly that profile.
It would be strange to put him anywhere else.
History Is Bad. Context Got Worse. But The Data Is Good
England's World Cup penalty record is one of the sport's bleakest statistics. It just got more loaded.
One win from four penalty shootouts at World Cups is the number England carry into every knockout game that gets tight.
Germany had one of the great penalty reputations in world football, unbeaten in four World Cup shootouts before this summer. It did not save them.
The Netherlands have a World Cup shootout record identical to England's - one win from four. It did not save them either. No history is bulletproof. No reputation survives a bad night on the spot.
The good news for England is the trend is moving in the right direction.
Three wins from four in major tournament shootouts under Sir Gareth Southgate, including a perfect five from five kicks against Switzerland at Euro 2024.
And the group of players available to Tuchel carries conversion rates that previous England managers could only have imagined: Toney at 93.5%, Rashford at 91.3% and Kane at 88.4%.
Jordan Pickford is behind them. He saved in 2018 and he saved in 2024. He is not a passive presence in a shootout.
If Germany's elimination tells England anything, it is that the goalkeeper matters as much as the five takers. England have a good one.
The Bottom Line
Germany went out on penalties. The Netherlands went out on penalties. Nobody is safe. England have, according to the data, the best penalty squad in the nation's World Cup history.
The order BetBuilderAI recommends is not arbitrary. It front-loads the pressure with two elite converters, delivers the Saka redemption narrative at the midpoint, and ends with the one player in the squad who would genuinely choose to go last.
DR Congo will not roll over. The knockout round is where tournaments are decided, not won.
However, if their clash with DR Congo ends with spot-kicks, England's argument is not faith or tradition or "it's coming home." Their argument is with the numbers.
Germany had history, but the German players are on their way home. England have Toney at 93.5%, Pickford in goal and BetBuilderAI tells them exactly who to pick and when.
Use the data. Get the order right. That is all that is left to do.
