AFL Betting Tips Round 10: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 10 Predictions:
- Melbourne By 1-39 Points - 2.25 With Bluebet
- Fremantle vs Geelong Over 173.5 Points - 1.9 With Unibet
- Brisbane -25.5 Points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
- Collingwood By 40+ Points - 4.0 With Bet365
Talk about a ‘bad beat’ Saturday night was a heartbreaking evening for followers of this blog as an after-the-siren goal from Cam Rayner and Anthony Scott’s goal against Carlton with 15 seconds remaining knocked out two of our selections in the space of five minutes.
Fortunately, the Suns covered the 40+ margin set by betting sites with consummate ease, and at a very good price (3.1), to spare some damage.
There’s another cracking top-four Friday night fixture to open Round 10 and we’ll be hoping we can head into the weekend with some winning bets off the back of it.
We’ve taken another look at our favourite bookmakers, who are fortunately anticipating some much more competitive games this week after an average winning margin of 46 points across last week’s round.
Port Adelaide Power v Melbourne Demons, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
Two teams with more wins than a dictionary in recent weeks will both look to make another statement about their Premiership credentials at the Adelaide Oval, where Port Adelaide Power (W7 L2) have won five of their six games in 2023 with the Showdown as the only exception.
They’re on a run of six straight wins, albeit four of them against teams currently outside the top eight, so how they respond this week against a tougher opposition will be telling.
Ken Hinkley’s men will certainly want to do better than the three consecutive losses suffered to Melbourne across the two previous seasons as well as their 71-point humbling to Collingwood in Round 2.
Melbourne Demons (W7 L2) bounced back from a surprise Magic Round loss to Essendon with four victories of their own, covering the line on AFL betting sites in their two games as the designated away side during that period, and the Dees have started as favourites in all seven of their wins this year.
As the team with the second-best defensive record in the comp, they should have more than enough to shut down Jeremy Finlayson and Charlie Dixon, which doesn’t leave Port with a great deal of scoring options.
But with these sides quite evenly matched on paper, it does seem sensible to tack on some extra value by backing your preferred pick by a 1-39 point margin.
If you’re confident of a humble Melbourne victory and after a value bet, you may also like to know that the last nine meetings between these teams all finished ‘unders’, as have the majority of Port Adelaide’s games this year.
Tip: Melbourne By 1-39 Points - 2.25 With Bluebet
Value Play: Melbourne -6.5 / Under 170.5 Points - 3.8 With Ladbrokes
Fremantle Dockers v Geelong Cats, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
Fremantle Dockers (W4 L5) took advantage of a soft couple of weeks, notching up two wins against lowly Sydney and Hawthorn to move closer to the eight.
Despite their ladder positions at the time, Freo started as big outsiders against Sydney (3.9) and after covering the line just twice in their first seven games, appeared on the up.
It could all come crashing back to earth unless they can defeat a current top-eight team for the first time in 2023 at a home venue where they have already been humbled by North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.
The Dockers have led at the quarter time break just once this year (one for punters who like an early payout), so there’s little wonder that better sides have been able to put them away.
But they’ve hit their straps up forward with dual 100+ points scores contributing to seven of their nine games this year finishing ‘overs’.
The same thing (seven of nine) can be said about the Geelong Cats (W5 L4), who have a habit of either scoring or conceding large this year.
The winning team on the day has put up an average of 110 points in Geelong’s matches, which is already two-thirds of the way to covering the total points mark offered by Unibet.
Geelong are expecting a few ins to boost their chances, star forward Tom Hawkins has 12 goals from his last four games against the Dockers, and Hawkins and Cameron started this round occupying the top three of the Coleman Medal race. All signs point to a big scoring affair.
Freo spearhead Michael Walters has booted the Dockers’ first goal in two of their last five games and has been kept goalless by the Geelong defence just three times from 15 head-to-head appearances.
Tip: Over 173.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
Value Play: Michael Walters First Goalscorer - 16.0 With PlayUp
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
The 24th ‘Q-Clash’ sees the Brisbane Lions (W7 L2) looking for a ninth consecutive head-to-head win over their little brothers.
But more importantly, depending on Melbourne’s result the day before, they could potentially be shooting for the top of the ladder after six straight wins.
All but one of those six consecutive wins have been by a margin of at least 26 points, which is what Ladbrokes are asking them to cover this week with an injury list that features only floating defender Daniel Rich.
Despite starting this round second only to the Lions for clearances (40.2 per game) in 2023, the Suns have failed to use the ball efficiently, being last in the competition for effective disposal and fourth-worst for inside 50s.
Three wins from their last four games would have restored confidence in the camp, and has the top eight within reach for the first time this season, but another step up will be required with those three victories all against teams below them on the ladder during the week.
A big effort will be needed from Jack Lukosius, who recorded multiple goal hauls in two wins as well as their opening goal in three games this year.
Tip: Brisbane -25.5 points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
Value Play: Jack Lukosius First Goalscorer - 15.0 With PlayUp
Carlton Blues v Collingwood Magpies, Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)
After a deluge of hype surrounding how far the Carlton Blues (W4 D1 L4) were going to improve in 2023 after their ninth place finish last year, their finals credentials are quickly running out.
North Melbourne and West Coast, who are hardly better than their state reserves teams at the moment, are their only scalps from the last six rounds of football that has seen them average a score of only 64 points in the four losses.
Two weeks after losing as favourites to Brisbane - they’re expected to face a much sterner test against another top-four side when top-of-the-ladder Collingwood Magpies - who haven’t lost a home and away game in Melbourne since May 2022, take them on at the MCG.
Granted, six of Collingwood’s eight wins have fallen within the 1-39 point margin band, but one of the two exceptions was last week against GWS (65 points) who are arguably faring better than the Blues in the last month.
The line offered by bookmakers is anticipating a tight clash - understandable as neither team has won this matchup by more than 30 points since 2015 - but on current form we’re willing to take a risk and back Collingwood on Bet365* to blow their rivals out of the water.
Jamie Elliott last kicked Collingwood’s first goal back in Round 2, but has form for making an early impact with the opening goal of this fixture twice since the start of 2021 as well as the third goal in the other 2021 head-to-head, he could bob up early.
Tip: Collingwood By 40+ Points - 4.0 With Bet365
Value Play: Jamie Elliott First Goalscorer - 14.0 With PlayUp
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