AFL Betting Tips Round 15: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 15 Predictions:
- Brisbane Lions By 1-39 Points - 2.4 With Bluebet
- Fremantle-Essendon Under 155.5 Total Points - 1.9 With Bet365
- Collingwood By 1-39 Points - 2.15 With PlayUp
- Hawthorn +23.5 Points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
Punting is a funny old game, isn’t it? Round 14 was an appalling one for our main tips, with three of the four well off the mark, but three player props - including a first goalscorer at a price of 19.0 and Cody Weightman to kick 3+ goals at 3.6 - left our followers coming out well on top at the end of the weekend!
The split rounds can be difficult to negotiate with fewer games to pick from, but Round 15 will have a couple of interesting top-eight clashes after Melbourne host reigning Premiers Geelong on Thursday evening.
Our favourite betting sites have laid down the gauntlet and we’re rising to the challenge with another four pairs of best bets for this weekend’s action.
St Kilda Saints v Brisbane Lions, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
We have landed some good bets this year off the back of Port Adelaide’s scintillating record at Marvel Stadium, and there’s another opportunity here to punt on another interstate side with a strong recent history under the roof.
St Kilda Saints (W8 L5) and Brisbane Lions (W9 L4) have had indifferent months after asserting themselves as Premiership contenders earlier in the year, both recently dropping points as favourites on AFL betting sites.
The Saints continue to make life hard for themselves by being level or behind at the half-time break in four of their last five matches and, after being held to just 70 points by Richmond last week, went into this round as one of four clubs to average fewer than 80 points a game.
Brisbane’s 26-point triumph against Carlton back in Round 8 was their fifth win from six visits to Marvel Stadium since the start of 2021.
As the league’s fourth-toughest defence (80.2 points conceded per game) going into this match week, they too should be a test for an opposition only ahead of West Coast for total scoring shots in 2023.
It was inaccurate kicking rather than inadequate defending that saw them fail to cover the line for a third consecutive game last week (97-81 against Sydney), and they should have the slight edge this week.
For someone who has cleared 3+ goals three times in his last 11 games in addition to four two-goal hauls, 4.6 from Australian betting sites for Dan Butler to get another 3+ this week looks a good price.
Tip: Brisbane Lions By 1-39 Points - 2.4 With Bluebet
Value Play: Dan Butler To Kick 3+ Goals - 4.6 With Ladbrokes
Fremantle Dockers v Essendon Bombers, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)
At their best, the Fremantle Dockers (W6 L7) are a worthy finals contender.
Their four-game winning streak gave birth to promises of a new beginning, but surprise losses to Richmond and GWS following their week off will have them outside the eight for at least another two weeks.
They’ll be hoping the returns of Sean Darcy and Michael Frederick help them rediscover better ways.
In a sign of head coach Justin Longmuir’s desperation to reset their season, he has turned to night-time training sessions to get them in the zone for this important Saturday night meeting with Essendon Bombers (W8 L5), who have cleared their own hurdle earlier in the season to win four on the trot.
Bet365 have set a very modest for this game, and we feel it may not be conservative enough: the Dockers’ last three matches have all finished with fewer than 155.5 total points (as have four of Essendon’s last five games) as have four of the most recent five head-to-heads!
Essendon spearhead Kyle Langford is perhaps not as short as we would have expected to kick the first goal (13.0) considering he has done it in three of Essendon’s last six games, but we’re instead going to take the best price we can get for Fremantle’s Jye Amiss to boot 3+ for what would be a fifth time from six games at Optus Stadium.
Tip: Under 155.5 Total Points - 1.9 With Bet365
Value Play: Jye Amiss To Kick 3+ Goals - 3.0 With Ladbrokes
Collingwood Magpies v Adelaide Crows, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
Along with Adelaide’s rival the Power, Collingwood Magpies (W11 L2) have broken away from the pack in recent weeks, though the week off last week came as an opportune time to reset after a humiliating setback against Melbourne in which the losing margin of four points was quite flattering.
Back to the home dressing rooms they go, and it should be of great advantage against an interstate opposition after they had won 16 consecutive home and away games at the MCG prior to that meeting with Melbourne, while covering the main pre-match line in 10 of the last 13 in which they were the home side of the day.
The Magpies have the wood over the Adelaide Crows (W7 L6) with seven consecutive head-to-head victories, though Adelaide kept their place in the eight prior to their bye round with three wins from eight starts as underdogs in 2023.
They put up the biggest winning margin of the season with a 122-point demolition of West Coast, though as Collingwood learned against Melbourne just a fortnight ago, thumping the Eagles is no guarantee of a win in the following week.
But as the fourth-best attack (95.2ppg) and sixth-best defence (81.8 conceded per game) heading into this round, they should give a good account of themselves - even though they’re without a win at the MCG from five attempts since 2018.
On that basis, getting a better price for the 1-39 point Magpies win (2.15) with PlayUp than the line appeals.
Collingwood’s Bobby Hill has booted his team’s opening goal three times in 2023 and continues to chip away with goals in four of his last five games.
Tip: Collingwood By 1-39 Points - 2.15 With PlayUp
Value Play: Bobby Hill First Goalscorer - 14.0 With Ladbrokes
Gold Coast Suns v Hawthorn Hawks, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)
Which Gold Coast Suns (W6 L7) side are we going to see this weekend?
There was a bye round in between their successful double in Darwin which was followed up by a truly embarrassing 10-goal loss to Carlton that intensified rumours of the board seeing if Damien Hardwick is interested in a return to coaching any time soon.
Taking the second quarter and their 38% kicking accuracy out of the equation, it was in parts a competitive effort on an otherwise forgettable day.
The side with fewer disposals than any other team in 2023 need to get busy and add to their outstanding record of seven wins from their last eight games as the favourites and home side of the day.
Three of Hawthorn Hawks’ (W4 L9) four wins this season have come within their last four weeks, two against sides that are currently challenging for the top four.
On that basis, it would be a tough call to write them off even despite losing their last six games away from either Victoria or Tasmania.
The absence of James Sicily to suspension for three games will hurt, particularly as they have lost six of their last seven games without him, but the exception was against, you guessed it - as pre-match outsiders against the Suns in 2020!
Hawks forward Luke Breust is clearing at least three goals in half of his appearances this year, which makes the 3.9 offered by Unibet for him to do it again very generous.
Tip: Hawthorn +23.5 Points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
Value Play: Luke Breust To Kick 3+ Goals - 3.9 With Unibet
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