AFL Betting Tips Round 19: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 19 Predictions:
- Essendon-Western Bulldogs Under 169.5 points - 1.90 With Bet365
- Richmond-Hawthorn Under 162.5 points 1.90 With PlayUp
- Brisbane by 1-39 points - 2.28 With Bluebet
- GWS Giants by 25+ points - 2.90 With Ladbrokes
The siren for the start of the final quarter has sounded and the final six rounds of the 2023 AFL season are upon us.
Collingwood inched away from Port Adelaide at the top of the table, and could extend their lead to a valuable eight points when the two teams meet in Adelaide this weekend as betting sites have odds at the ready.
The loser of the Saturday evening clash in Perth between Fremantle and Sydney could see their dwindling finals chances come to an end, whilst Brisbane now have to ward off Geelong from a top four challenge after their last gasp loss to Melbourne last round.
Half a win separated sixth from 11th heading into this round, which gives all nine games of the weekend crucial weight in the race for what could be the last eight-team postseason.
Two of those clubs packed into the middle of the ladder on 36 points open proceedings on Friday night in Melbourne and that’s where our AFL Round 19 predictions begin as we look for some potentially profitable AFL betting markets.
Essendon Bombers v Western Bulldogs, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Essendon Bombers (W9 L8) and Western Bulldogs (W9 L8) are both clinging onto their top eight places after disappointing performances of varying degrees last week, and Australian AFL betting sites understandably have them priced almost evenly for this important game.
Whilst this fixture won’t be ultimately decisive with another five rounds to come, the losing side is going to be approaching next round with four losses from their last six games and a lot of negative momentum as a consequence.
Essendon were picked apart by Geelong in the first quarter last week and there was no looking back as, for the third time in four weeks, they failed to score 75 points.
Perhaps the only other thing consistent about their season is that the pre-match favourite has won 76% of their matches this season!
The task ahead of them now is to improve against the sixth-best defence in the competition and a side who themselves have consistently recorded scores of between 75 and 86 points in eight of their last 10 outings.
If that scoring trend is to continue, and Essendon can’t snap their recent struggles against top-eight opposition, the sides between them may not get close to 170 total points.
After he was tied down by the Cats last week, Zach Merrett is presented with an opportunity to clear 30+ disposals for the sixth time in nine games, and the 1.87 offered by Bet365 for ‘over 29.5’ is far juicier than other 30+ disposal markets.
Tip: Under 169.5 total points - 1.90 With Bet365
Player Prop: Zach Merrett 30+ disposals - 1.87 With Unibet
Richmond Tigers v Hawthorn Hawks, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
The 11 next to Richmond Tigers’ (W8 D1 L8) name on the AFL ladder going into Round 19 belies just how close they are to a sixth finals appearance in seven years.
They, Carlton and GWS have all won at least four of their last five matches, and with diminishing returns coming from St Kilda, Essendon and the Bulldogs above them, there’s a sense that the middle section of the ladder could flip onto its head.
They could all but formally put a pen through a forgettable Hawthorn Hawks (W5 L12) season this weekend with what would extend their unbeaten run against the Hawks to five games (W3 D1).
It’s 12th versus 16th in terms of points scored in 2023, with Richmond failing to break a ton in five straight games including a sluggish 38-point win against rock bottom West Coast.
They were hoping to welcome Tom Lynch back from his broken foot this week but will have to continue waiting, whilst 34-year-old Jack Riewoldt has just 12 goals from his last 11 games.
If one player is going to spoil the ‘unders’ for us, it’ll likely be Hawthorn spearhead Mitch Lewis, who has now kicked 3+ goals in five of his last eight games following a trio against the Roos last week. Ladbrokes have by far the best price available for those who fancy him to do it again.
Tip: Under 162.5 total points - 1.90 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Mitch Lewis to kick 3+ goals - 2.70 With Ladbrokes
Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
The dreaded P-word (‘pretenders’) has been slapped upon the Brisbane Lions (W12 L5) after having now lost to fellow top four clubs Melbourne and Port Adelaide this year, and there’s another hunter lurking in the bushes.
After succumbing to their much publicised MCG hoodoo last week, the Lions are back up north in Brisbane where they maintain a perfect eight wins from eight by an average margin of 44 points, covering the -13.5 that is asked of them this week in each of the most recent seven.
Ironically, they were triumphant by 44 points the last time Geelong played them in Brisbane, and whilst the Cats are yet to defeat an interstate side on their own turf (their only win outside of Victoria was against West Coast during Adelaide’s Gather Round), just one of their seven defeats across the season have been by a 40+ point margin.
Brisbane’s offence has taken a step up in recent weeks with Jack Gunston hitting his straps, whilst Eric Hipwood has chipped in consistently at home with exactly two goals in each of his last four games at The Gabba.
Tip: Brisbane by 1-39 points - 2.28 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Eric Hipwood to kick 2+ goals - 1.98 With Unibet
GWS Giants v Gold Coast Suns, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
It’s probably high time we stop referring to this as an expansion derby, but it’s always fascinating to compare the meandering progression (or regression) of the league’s two newest clubs.
As the only side to have won their last five matches heading into this round, GWS can boast they’re the in-form club of the competition, even if there are still questions to be answered with four of those five wins coming against sides below them on the ladder.
But as far as this match is concerned, that plays into their hands.
If percentage is to come into play in a logjammed ladder come seasons’ end, the Giants are going to have to improve significantly on theirs (99%). Games against the Suns and Swans in coming weeks could present that opportunity.
Backing them to win handsomely against a Gold Coast side in transition is a bold move given 10 of the Giants’ games this season produced a margin of under 15.5 points to either team, but 25+ is a margin they have covered in all but one of the last seven meetings between these sides (GWS: W6 L1).
If you fancy a first goalscorer ‘throw at the stumps’, Levi Casboult has booted the Suns’ first goal in four of their last eight games (which includes the first of the match three times).
Tip: GWS Giants by 25+ points - 2.90 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Levi Casboult First Team Goalscorer - 9.0 With Unibet
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