AFL Betting Tips Round 22: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 22 Predictions:
- Adelaide +21.5 Points - 1.9 With Bet365
- Carlton-Melbourne Under 166.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
- Fremantle by 1-39 points - 2.25 With Bluebet
- Port Adelaide-GWS Either By Under 15.5 Points - 2.9 With Ladbrokes
Hello footy fans! The race for the final eight shows no signs of abating, with just one win separating sixth from 12th heading into the third-last round of the season.
The league will certainly be patting themselves on the back for jettisoning a week of preseason for an additional home and away week with Round 24 promising to be one of the most exciting in recent years. Perhaps there is room for a ‘wildcard’ round after all!
But for now, our focus must remain on Round 22 and the hundreds of markets offered by AFL betting sites around the country.
We can only hope the player props this week treat us as well as they did last weekend, with three of our four goalkickers coming good. On that note, here are our best bets for this coming weekend of footy.
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
The Brisbane Lions (W14 L6) were successful but hardly inspiring in Perth last weekend when failing to cover the line for a fifth consecutive week.
A top-two place will likely depend on upcoming clashes with fellow finalists Collingwood and St Kilda, but first they’ve got to deal with a budding finals contender that has won two matches on the trot.
Whilst this time they have the advantage of The Gabba, where they maintain a perfect nine wins from nine matches, are the Lions a better side now than they were when losing by 17 points away to the Adelaide Crows (W10 L10) earlier this year?
Their effort against the Suns two weeks back suggests not. Meanwhile, Adelaide defeated the Gold Coast by 28 points just last week, and that followed a Showdown trouncing of their South Australian rivals that has them rising at an opportune time.
Whilst there’s not much juice in our suggested player prop, it certainly appears to be a safe multi filler. Joe Daniher has 14 multiple-goal hauls to his name in 2023, but more importantly, eight of them have been in Brisbane’s nine home outings.
Best Bet: Adelaide +21.5 points - 1.9 With Bet365
Player Prop: Joe Daniher to kick 2+ goals - 1.55 With Unibet
Carlton Blues v Melbourne Demons, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)
Two of the AFL’s best defensive units of 2023 clash heads with this Carlton’s (W11 D1 L8) last chance to sneak into the top four and Melbourne’s (W14 L6) final opportunity to grab a home qualifying final.
With that in mind, betting sites have set a fairly modest total points score in the mid-160s, which is well above some of the totals that have been produced in Melbourne’s eight consecutive wins over Carlton.
Their previous matchup this year saw the Dees win 61-44, whilst only three of the last 10 H2Hs prior to that cleared 165 total points.
Carlton have not conceded more than 76 points in any of their seven straight victories, though their ability to get the ball forward will be restrained by the return of Clayton Oliver.
Despite kicking at least two goals in each of his last four games for a total of eight times this year, the price that bookies are offering for Jesse Motlop to do it again is simply too good to refuse.
Best Bet: Under 166.5 total points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Jesse Motlop to kick 2+ goals - 2.85 With Ladbrokes
West Coast Eagles v Fremantle, Saturday, 8:10pm (AEST)
The Fremantle Dockers (W8 L12) must win their last three games to maintain an already very remote chance of getting into the top eight and can probably count on a fifth consecutive win against derby rivals West Coast Eagles (W2 L18) to move one step closer.
But since losing the April derby by 41 points, the Eagles have made significant inroads throughout the second half of the season as their remarkably long injury list continues to shrink.
This week veteran Shannon Hurn - who last played in their narrow home win over North Melbourne - returns to bolster their defence, whilst captain Luke Shuey was tracking (but not confirmed) to be in the side at time of writing.
Fremantle firmed significantly as favourites throughout the week but have scored fewer than 80 points for six consecutive weeks (W1 L5), which brings into question their ability to clear a 40+ point margin for a third time this season.
In their last six matches, West Coast have suffered only two significant blowouts, taking St Kilda and Essendon the full distance in addition to that breakthrough win against North Melbourne.
After 35 touches against Brisbane last week, Fremantle’s Caleb Serong has cleared the 31.5 disposal line that firms have set for him this week in five of his last seven games. Add to that a haul of 35 in the previous derby and we’re confident he can do it again.
Best Bet: Fremantle by 1-39 points - 2.25 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Caleb Serong over 31.5 disposals - 1.87 With Unibet
Port Adelaide Power v GWS Giants, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)
The weekend concludes with a fascinating battle between one of the worst form sides in the competition and another making a late but formidable charge for finals football with seven wins from eight games.
Port Adelaide Power’s (W14 L6) 13 consecutive wins earlier in the season built up enough of a buffer to ensure that they could still get the double chance in September even with three more losses to go with their four in a row.
An 8-1 home record against interstate opposition this year should remind their players they still have the upper hand against the GWS Giants (W11 L9), though the odds during the week suggest it’s going to be a tight contest.
That’s something the Giants have experienced more than any other side this season: 60% of their matches have seen winning margins of less than 16 points, which includes each of their five wins as pre-match outsiders in 2023 (W5 L4).
More conservative punters are reminded that exchange betting sites also offer the option for either team to win by under 24.5 points at a reduced price.
We’re going to finish off our player props this week with a low stake roll of the dice, and take the 10.0 on offer from Unibet for Sam Powell-Pepper to kick Port’s first goal, as he has done on a team-best six occasions this season - four of them at the Adelaide Oval.
Best Bet: Either team to win by under 15.5 points - 2.9 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Sam Powell-Pepper First Port Adelaide Goalscorer - 10.0 With Unibet
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