Premier League Relegation Odds: Everton, Leeds And Burnley Scrapping To Avoid The Drop
The relegation battle will still be a live issue on the final day of the Premier League campaign, and betting sites are constantly updating the odds to reflect how things stand.
There were no real winners at the bottom of the table at the weekend. Burnley suffered a 1-0 loss to Tottenham Hotspur. Everton had two players sent off in their 3-2 defeat by Brentford.
Meanwhile, although Leeds United rescued a point against Brighton & Hove Albion with an equaliser in second-half stoppage time, they are still the favourites to join Watford and Norwich City in the Championship next term.
Southampton were not in action at the weekend – they face Liverpool on Tuesday – but results elsewhere mean they are now mathematically safe from the threat of demotion.
That will come as a relief to Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side, whose form has nosedived in recent weeks. Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace have also got themselves safe and are looking up at the top half rather than over their shoulders at the drop zone.
So, which of the three contenders will fall through the trapdoor? Let’s assess each of their chances of finishing above the dreaded dotted line.
Leeds Show Character But Fate Is Out Of Their Hands
When they saw their team fall behind to Brighton on Sunday, Leeds fans must have feared the worst.
They had lost three games on the bounce prior to the visit of Graham Potter’s side, and another defeat would have left them in an extremely precarious position. Pascal Struijk’s late leveller earned Leeds a 1-1 draw may yet prove invaluable.
Jesse Marsch’s side are still the odds-on favourites to finish 18th at 1.73 with football betting sites, however. They are not in the bottom three right now but only have one game left to play, compared to two each for Burnley and Everton.
Leeds also have by far the worst goal difference of the trio: they have scored more goals than both of their relegation rivals, but have conceded an average of more than two per game this term.
The Whites enjoyed a mini-revival soon after Marsch took charge. The American lost his first two matches in charge to Leicester City and Aston Villa, but Leeds then proceeded to collect 11 points from the next 15 available.
At one point during that run, they moved nine points clear of the bottom three, albeit having played more matches than the sides around them. Their results have taken a hit since then though, leaving Leeds with work to do.
A trip to Brentford on the final day will not be easy. The Bees have been in excellent form in recent months: since the start of March, only the top two and Tottenham have accumulated more points than Thomas Frank’s side. They will want to end a terrific season on a high at the Brentford Community Stadium.
Would a win on Sunday be enough to keep Leeds in the Premier League? Not necessarily.
If Burnley take four points from their last two matches, they will be safe regardless of what happens when Leeds take on Brentford. The Whites might have missed their chance.
One Win From Last Two Games Might Not Be Enough For Burnley
Having said that, it is far from a given that Burnley will beat one of Aston Villa and Newcastle United, and draw with the other.
The Clarets were soundly beaten by Villa earlier this month, while the Magpies could still be in contention for a top-half finish when they visit Turf Moor at the weekend. Mike Jackson’s men need to go again after back-to-back defeats.
On the plus side, Burnley’s fate is in their own hands – hence why they are only the second-favourites at 2.63 with bet365. If they can avoid defeat by Villa, they might not even need to beat Newcastle on Sunday to survive.
A draw in Birmingham on Thursday would lift Burnley into 17th place – a psychological boost ahead of gameweek 38. A pair of draws would be sufficient for the Clarets to keep their heads above water if Brentford can deny Leeds a win on Sunday.
Burnley’s failure to score in recent losses to Villa and Tottenham is slightly concerning, though.
Jackson went for Maxwel Cornet and Ashely Barnes in attack against Spurs, but we could see him ring the chances up top once more for the trip to Villa Park.
With Ben Mee out injured and James Tarkowski fighting to be fit for the run-in, Burnley might not be able to rely on their defence as much as they usually do. That could be an issue against two teams with plenty of attacking quality in their ranks.
Everton In Most Favourable Position
Despite Jarrad Branthwaite’s early red card, Everton went 2-1 up against Brentford on Sunday. Had they held out for the win, Frank Lampard’s side would already be safe. Two quick-fire second-half Brentford goals took the game away from them though, leaving Everton’s top-flight status still in the balance.
The good news is that one win from their final two matches would guarantee the Toffees a place in next season’s Premier League. That would move them onto 39 points and make Leeds, currently on 35, unable to catch them.
However, Everton will not want to be sweating on a result on the final day, when they will do battle with Champions League-chasing Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. Thursday’s home game against Crystal Palace is the one Everton will be targeting.
In one sense Palace are ideal opponents since they do not have anything to play for. On the other hand, that is precisely what makes them dangerous.
Patrick Vieira’s side have looked good in recent weeks when they have been playing without pressure, and Sunday’s 1-1 draw with Aston Villa means they have now gone four games unbeaten.
Everton’s relegation odds of 8.0 with Betfair are certain to shorten if they slip up on Thursday.
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