Tennis Betting Tips: Two Long Odds Plays For US Open Glory
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Sean Calvert's Tennis Tips:
- Back Berrettini each-way to win US Open at 29.0 with Ladbrokes
- Back Hurkacz each-way to win US Open at 41.0 with Bet365
The final major of the season gets underway on Monday in New York at the 2022 US Open and betting sites believe it is one of the most open slams in recent times.
Novak Djokovic won’t be in New York, as he’s still in somewhat of a self-imposed exile due to his unvaccinated status and that means he’s not allowed to enter the USA.
Meanwhile, there are also doubts over most of the market leaders heading into the tournament.
The subplot to all of this is that the world number one ranking is up for grabs for several players and we could have a situation where Casper Ruud is world number one in two weeks’ time.
Medvedev Leads The US Open Field
Djokovic’s absence means that the market leader is Daniil Medvedev, the defending US Open champion.
However, Medvedev’s price of 3.5 with tennis betting sites looks rather short considering that he’s only won one tournament since his 2021 New York triumph.
And that title was an ATP 250 in Los Cabos - the Russian has lost five of the six finals he’s contested since his US Open victory and he hasn’t appeared to be in the same sort of form that he’s arrived in New York in in previous seasons.
Lately, opponents such as Nick Kyrgios and Stefanos Tsitsipas have utilised a serve and volley approach that’s disrupted Medvedev’s preferred baseline rhythm, so it’s doubtless several others will try this tactic against him.
And he could face Kyrgios again in round four in New York after Medvedev was drawn in what looks to me to be the tougher top half of the draw.
Can Nadal Battle Past Injury Woes?
Rafael Nadal is available at around 5.0 in the US Open tennis betting odds and while Rafa has performed something close to miraculous to win the Australian Open and the French Open this year, has he used up his miracle dust for 2022?
Rafa tore an abdominal muscle at Wimbledon and has played just the one match since - a loss to shock Cincy champion Borna Coric - and it’s a big ask for him to last the fortnight, but so it was in Melbourne and Paris, too.
The sheer determination and will to win that Nadal possesses means that you cannot rule him out in majors - to do so would be foolish - but 5.0 is too short for me to take an interest, despite his great record here lately.
Nadal has won his last 17 completed matches in-a-row at the US Open, since losing to Lucas Pouille in 2016, so whatever condition he arrives in he’s still a serious contender.
His draw in what looks the weaker bottom half is a positive, but the other slight doubt about him is that Nadal's partner is currently in hospital ahead of the birth of their first child, so it’s not impossible that Nadal may decide to forgo this particular major.
Alcaraz Out Of Form Heading In Year’s Final Major
So, there are doubts over Medvedev and Nadal, and I’m not convinced that third favourite Carlos Alcaraz is coming to the Big Apple in great spirits either, having struggled lately to back up the great success he had earlier in the year.
Alcaraz failed to win either of the clay court events he played post-Wimbledon and lost to Tommy Paul and Cam Norrie in the two Masters 1000 events on North American hard courts this summer – that’s hardly the form of a major winner.
More concerning to me than his form - that’s temporary - is Alcaraz's admission that he struggled to cope with the pressure “for the first time” in his defeat from a set and 4-1 up against Paul. I still believe that Alcaraz can be rushed by power on decent-paced hard courts.
The young Spaniard will be pleased with his draw in Q3, but the in-form Borna Coric is in his immediate section and he’s too short for me at around 6.0 on Betfair.
Kyrgios, Tsitsipas And Sinner Too Short In The Prices
The next contender doesn’t appeal at 9.0 with Unibet either and that’s Nick Kyrgios, whose questionable dedication and fitness/stamina makes him an unlikely champion. The odds would have to be far bigger for me to back Kyrgios to win a slam.
He might fancy his chances of another clash with Medvedev, who Kyrgios beat in Montreal a few weeks ago.
He’d have a very decent chance of winning what would be a round four match, but it’s hard to see him going all the way to the title.
We almost found a nice 19.0 winner with Stefanos Tsitsipas in Cincy, with the Greek landing the place money, but failing in the final as favourite, and is there any value in backing him at a shorter price to win a bigger tournament?
Not for me, and the tame manner of Tsitsipas accepting defeat against Coric in Cincy, combined with his weak record at the US Open and the fact that he’s never won a main level outdoor hard court tournament makes it easy to overlook him this fortnight.
- Live In-Play Tennis Betting Strategy
Next up is Jannik Sinner, and a few weeks ago the Italian was looking in prime form after an impressive win on the clay in Umag following on from a very decent Wimbledon, but his form, as it sometimes does, has collapsed.
Two scratchy wins over Miomir Kecmanovic (by retirement) and Thanasi Kokkinakis (in a final set tie-break) and two defeats has been his hard court summer so far.
While it’s certainly possible that he can find his form again, he has too many bad days for my liking at the moment.
I’m also far from certain that Sinner can last the pace over the best-of-five sets for a fortnight in likely testing conditions in New York, so 17.0 available doesn’t tempt me about Sinner.
Back Berrettini At Flushing Meadows
But Sinner’s fellow Italian, Matteo Berrettini at a much more appealing 29.0 with Labrokes has taken my interest.
Berrettini will arrive in New York in similarly poor form to Sinner, but at the price and with a proven record at the US Open - where he’s won 12 of his last 15 matches (losses to Nadal, Djokovic and Andrey Rublev) - I’m happy to take a chance.
Berrettini was as short as 8.0 to win Wimbledon a few short months ago and while he’s clearly at his best on grass, he’s got the hard court form in his locker too - he just has to find it at the right time.
And it’s quite possible that he can do just that this fortnight at a tournament he’s clearly comfortable at, so if there is any value in this men’s draw Berrettini is high up on the list and that’s despite his draw in the top half.
The Italian’s early draw for the first couple of rounds looks kind and that may be all he needs to get back to form.
Steer Clear Of Auger-Aliassime And Fritz In New York
Berrettini makes more appeal at that price to me than the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime at 26.0 and Taylor Fritz at around the same price.
I took Auger-Aliassime at 51.0 for the US during the Australian Open, but he hasn’t kicked on from that great tournament that he had in Melbourne or built on his first ATP Tour title in Rotterdam a month later.
It’s all been rather disappointing since then and his latest nerve-ridden shocker in Montreal suggests to me that he’s still got some way to go before he’s in a position to lift a major trophy.
And the price about Fritz is too short as well considering that we had him at 151.0 each-way to win Wimbledon and after revealing to all the major flaws in his game against an injured Nadal in the quarter finals I’m not seeing value in 21.0 this fortnight.
Fritz could and should have seen Nadal off that day at the All England Club, but was unwilling (or unable) to change his go-to play of cross court backhand, big forehand and staying on the baseline pretty much the whole time.
Had Fritz gone down the line with his backhand to Nadal’s backhand side (which Rafa was struggling to move to) and approached the net to finish with a volley he’d have won that match, but he doesn’t seem comfortable at the net.
That’s something he needs to work on, as was shown when he lost a set he should have won (and ultimately the match) against Daniil Medvedev in Cincy with his go-to game.
Hungary Hurkacz Worth An Each-Way Play
Instead, I’ll take Hubert Hurkacz each-way at a decent price of 41.0 with bet365 to carry my money as well as Berrettini (and Felix from ante-post) this fortnight.
Similarly to Berrettini, Hurkacz was around 15.0 to win Wimbledon with Djokovic in the field a few months ago and after a round one exit there he’s now a backable price to win the US Open.
Hurkacz is a Masters winner (Miami) and runner-up (Montreal) on outdoor hard and while he hasn’t shown his best form at the US Open yet, I do like his draw in Q3 against the likes of Alcaraz, Coric and Sinner.
Q3 looks winnable for Hurkacz for me and if he does so he may get someone like Cam Norrie in a semi-final if Nadal isn’t fit and/or doesn’t last the full two weeks for personal reasons.
Norrie looks the most obvious alternative to Nadal in Q4, with the likes of Andrey Rublev, Diego Schwartzman and Denis Shapovalov all overlooked.
However, I’m not seeing great value in Norrie, who is as short as 41.0 , in conditions that may be a touch quick for him (given his grinding play style in likely hot and humid conditions).
Conclusion
So, I’ll take a chance on Berrettini for one point each-way at 29.0 and the same for Hurkacz at 41.0 each-way in what looks an unusually open men’s draw at a major.
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