4 Nations Face-Off Prediction, MVP Picks & Betting Offers
4 Nations Face-Off Betting Picks
- USA to win the 4 Nations (+150 Bet99)
- Auston Matthews to be named MVP (+1100 Bet99)
- Sweden most round robin points vs Finland (-145 Bet99)
Goodbye NHL All-Star Game. Hello the return of competitive international hockey featuring the best the NHL has to offer.
We've been starved of top-tier international competition for several years due to the absence of NHL players from the last two editions of the Winter Olympics.
But ahead of the league's star names returning to the Olympic arena in 2026, we are being treated to the 4 Nations Face-Off, comprising NHL-contracted players from Canada, USA, Sweden and Finland.
The tournament, which repaces the All-Star Game, takes place over five days and each team will play three games in a round robin format. The top two nations in the standings at the end of those round robin matches will then collide in a title decider at TD Garden, Boston on February 20.
The 4 Nations got off to a thrilling start on Wednesday night when Canada defeated Sweden 4-3 in overtime at a sold-out Bell Centre in Montreal.
Canada are favorites to win the inaugural competition with betting sites, just ahead of the United States with Sweden viewed as the dark horses and Finland the outsiders.
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4 Nations Face-Off Prediction: Success For Stacked States Roster
The United States get their campaign underway on Thursday evening against Finland and are -340 on the money line on NHL betting sites to get the win.
The Finns have been beset by injuries, losing Miro Heiskanen, Rasmus Ristolainen and Jani Hakanpaa pre-tournament.
That's left them with an inexperienced group of defensemen playing in front of goaltender Juuse Saros, who comes into the 4 Nations with his lowest save percentage (.899) since joining the NHL.
Despite Finland's major red flags, this is still a potential trap game for the USA if they get caught with one eye on Saturday's clash with Canada, but the depth of the US roster and the form of several players available to coach Mike Sullivan should see them get the job done.
Established and new betting sites are forecasting that the USA and Canada will forge a path to the final, and it's hard to argue against their logic.
Sweden could throw a spanner in the works given the level of talent throughout their roster and they nearly ruined Canada's plans on opening night. At +600 to win the 4 Nations, the Swedes are a consideration.
Ultimately, what may undo Sweden is their lack of difference-making superstars, like Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid or Nathan McKinnon.
That trio forms part of an insane forward group for Canada, led by captain Crosby, who has won his last 26 appearances for the national team.
Canada has the most talented crop of forwards, but the United States aren't far behind with Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk and others.
However, it's along the blue line and between the pipes where the US may just have the edge over their neighbors.
The NHL's number one goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, has been named the starter for the USA and if he can't go for whatever reason, he's backed up by two exceptional talents in Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman.
Canada's goaltending options, in comparison, aren't as strong, while they've also lost a key defensemen in Shea Theodore to injury against Sweden.
The USA's power play unit looks terrific on paper too and with the 4 Nations final being in Boston, there's plenty to like about the USA's chances.
4 Nations Betting Pick: USA to win the 4 Nations (+150 Bet99)
4 Nations MVP Prediction: Matthews Makes Sense
If we want the USA to win it all, then it's logical to pair that with our MVP pick.
Three of the top four names in the MVP market on most betting apps are on Team USA with Matthews, Hellebuyck and Eichel behind current favorite Crosby.
Hellebuyck is a strong consideration if he can transfer his form for Winnipeg to the US, but it's rare a goaltender picks up the MVP price in an NHL environment, while the short format may not favor the netminders.
The last goalie to receive the Hart Trophy was Carey Price in 2015 with the last five awards going to centers, including Matthews.
The Toronto ace picked up the prize after scoring an incredible 60 goals in the 2021/22 season and he's going fairly well this season with 20 goals and 45 points overall.
Matthews enters the Four Nations on a run of six games without a goal but he's the type of player that can flick a switch and get hot, making him an ideal MVP candidate in a compact tournament.
4 Nations Face-Off MVP Betting Pick: Auston Matthews to be named MVP (+1100 Bet99)
4 Nations Face-Off Picks: Swedes Superior to Nordic Neighbors
One final bet which caught the eye on Alberta betting sites is the head-to-head points market for Finland and Sweden.
The Swedes are big favorites to have more points than the Finns at the end of the round robin stage and perhaps should be even shorter odds than currently advertised.
The 4 Nations points system works out as 3 points for a regulation win, 2 points for an overtime or shootout win, 1 point for an overtime or shootout loss and 0 points for a regulation defeat.
Sweden already have one point on the board after losing in overtime to Canada and while Finland have played a game less at this stage, having a point in the bank may prove critical.
The Swedes are -160 on the money line to win Saturday's game against Finland, but the -145 with Bet99 on them scoring more points than their Nordic rivals appeals slightly more given the expectations of this being a difficult tournament for the Finns.
4 Nations Face-Off Betting Pick: Sweden most round robin points vs Finland (-145 Bet99)
