Betting Analysis and Predictions for NHL Games, April 5
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Tuesday night serves up a large 10-game slate. Since Ontario sports betting began on Monday, it seemed to make sense to look at two teams from Ontario.
The final month of the season brings about a relentless amount of the unexpected. Let’s get it on!
Ottawa Senators vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Ottawa Senators rebounded after a tough loss last week in Nashville and the passing of owner Eugene Melnyk. Canadian sports bettors will be happy to know that beat the Detroit Red Wings twice. With a 4-5-1 record in their past 10 games, Ottawa is looking to finish strong.
As for the Montreal Canadiens, they have been able to stay closer in games even with their roster in some flux. They have gone 3-4-3 in their past 10 and the Canadiens pummeled Ottawa 5-1 at home in their last meeting. It appears like Jake Allen and Anton Forsberg will be the projected starters on Tuesday night from Bell Centre.
So, what has value from this game?
This is where there are some question marks. Both Ottawa and Montreal give up goals. If one looks at Montreal, they still yield 3.77 goals per game.
There are some trends that may throw off some bettors. For example, Ottawa surprised Winnipeg on the road and scored five goals. That gives them 19 goals in their past five contests.
Now, Montreal’s offense has slowed down with 14 goals in their previous five games. However, they did score four times against Toronto and five vs. Tampa Bay. So, the Canadiens behind Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield will have a plus matchup. Some trends on the moneyline are seeing Montreal as much as a 2.05 underdog in this game.
Also, the Over is staying firm currently at 6. This Ottawa and Montreal matchup will be more entertaining than most expect.
Look also at a possible small wager for Josh Norris who quietly hit the 30-goal plateau over the weekend against Detroit. He has four goals and three assists in the past five games. Point props would be a keen investment and a spot of strength here.
This one trend is odd but has to be mentioned. Ottawa was even when the line opened on Monday but has moved from 1.91 (even) to a slight 1.83 favorite.
On some sites, Ottawa is around 1.80. Consequently, Montreal again is in the plus-money category at home. Even their team Over of 2.5 goals is something to potentially take advantage of.
Let’s look at a few more options from Toronto and Edmonton to cap off Tuesday.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Auston Matthews
The Edmonton Oilers continue their “California Trip” tonight vs. the San Jose Sharks. They naturally are led by their duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
It is not often since the days of Wayne Gretzky and Jari Kurri that one has seen such prolific scoring. Both forwards are already over 100 points with a dozen games still to go.
Online sports betting gets to be fun anytime we delve into individual player props. The question becomes which Oiler forward scores the goals.
Both have 40 or more and both have eight game-winning goals or more. McDavid leads the point race between the two by a count of 105 to 101.
McDavid has a goal in four straight games and a whopping 29 shots on goal. His shot prop is almost an automatic option at this juncture.
Drasaitl is a bit les. If one feels safe looking towards the point prop for the German forward, that is a prudent strategy. After all, this duo plays a role in an offense that has hit the Over in nine of their past 10 games.
Then, there is Auston Matthews. Goal scoring props have taken a pounding over the past couple of months. Consider this run the Toronto Maple Leafs' center is on.
He has 47 goals in his past 47 games and arguably could have more. His expected goals for percentage is 66 which is at an elite level. Matthews is at 54 goals in 64 games currently. 60 almost seems certain. Even 65 is possible.
Toronto and Florida expect to feature a lot of goals tonight as both teams are willing to slug it out offensively.
His 17 shots over the last three games adds the shot prop in as a good option — the anytime goal. Even the Over at 2.55 for Matthews to tally two or more points Tuesday is not unreasonable.
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