MLS: Is TFC's reclamation project the real deal?

Article By Mark Keast

Last Updated: 2024 Mar 12

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We’ve only just completed Major League Soccer’s Matchday 4, but those who watched Toronto FC’s gutsy 1-0 win in their home opener Saturday versus the Charlotte FC could see it’s a different team.

Another week, another Lorenzo Insigne highlight goal, this one later in the match, but the more telling scene was Insigne rushing into the arms of new TFC head coach John Herdman after he scored the goal. The head coach and the team’s best player have a good thing going. The Italian has two goals in their three games (six shots).

It’s been a tough go for the $14 million per year player (making him one of the highest paid players in the league) since joining TFC in 2022 – injuries, hirings and firings of coaches, underperformance, spats with fans, trying to get out of his contract. Last season was hideous for TFC – 20 losses in 34 games, just four wins, finishing 15^th in the Eastern Conference. Insigne was on the front lines of all that.

In comes Herdman, and a culture change. After the Charlotte match, Herdman referenced captain Jonathan Osorio and Federico Bernardeschi for their work ethic. Insigne was named to MLS Team of the Matchday 4.

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“I said today it would be a tough game, Charlotte is a very direct team, you're gonna fight for everything, two strong forwards,” Herdman said later. “We're proud of the lads. I thought our quality came out. To do well in MLS you need your DPs performing at that level and Lorenzo certainly came up trumps there. But for me you got to talk about next man up, Luka Gavran, recovering, making a big save … kept us in the game.

“And then you think as Sigurd Rosted, [Kevin] Long had to go out at halftime and big Sigs comes in. I thought we did well second half with him managing that backline. Then the fans … you could feel it was on a knife edge and I knew this was that game. The fans stuck with us. And when Lorenzo scored, I just felt this is what this stadium can feel like through this season. I think they felt we might be back. We're getting close to it.”

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Gavran made a key comment later, that this TFC team is “way more clear” tactically. There’s nowhere to go but up for TFC, after last season.

For the sports betting crowd, TFC’s next game is Saturday in New York (7:30 p.m. EST), a team they’re tied with in the standings with two wins apiece (draw against FC Cincinnati, a win in New England, win over Charlotte; five teams currently tied for first place in points).

The Red Bulls are led by midfielder Emil Forsberg, with a goal in their three matches. New York is the betting favourite there, according to BetMGM this morning: New York 1.70, Tie 3.75, TFC 4.60.

Again, it’s early, but Toronto FC is inching its way up the MLS League Winner odds chart. Here's a sampling:

BetMGM Sportsbook

1. Inter Miami 3.50

2. Columbus Crew 10.00

3. FC Cincinnati 11.00

4. Los Angeles Galaxy 13.00

5. Los Angeles FC 13.00

6. New York Red Bulls 15.00

24. Toronto FC 67.00

NorthStar Bets Sportsbook

1. Inter Miami 3.00

2. Columbus Crew 10.00

3. FC Cincinnati 12.00

4. Los Angeles FC 12.00

5. Los Angeles Galaxy 14.00

6. New York Red Bulls 14.00

25. Toronto FC 71.00

theScore Bet Sportsbook

1. Inter Miami 3.50

2. Columbus Crew 11.00

3. Los Angeles FC 11.00

4. FC Cincinnati 13.00

5. New York Red Bulls 13.00

6. Philadelphia Union 15.00

15. Toronto FC 31.00

FanDuel says that two per cent of bets are on TFC to win the MLS championship.

Inter Miami CF sits atop the Eastern Conference standings with ten goals in their four games, but they dropped their match Sunday against CF Montreal 3-2, Miami’s first loss of the season. Lionel Messi – with three goals in three matches - sat out the game nursing a shin injury.

Miami’s next match is this Saturday, 2 p.m. EST, at home against DC United (one win and two draws). BetMGM odds this morning: DC United 2.50, Tie 3.60, Miami 2.50.