Next Fianna Fáil Leader Betting: McGrath Leads O’Callaghan To Replace Martin

Betting sites believe the battle to succeed Micheál Martin as Fianna Fáil leader will go down to a face-off between Michael McGrath and Jim O’Callaghan – but the Tanaiste isn’t going anywhere just yet.

Martin expressed his determination to remain as Fianna Fáil leader during the party’s ard fheis in November, dampening suggestions he may run for Ireland’s EU commissioner post.

Indeed, it also seems unlikely that he will run for the Irish presidency in 2025 and instead says he wants to head the government again, having given up the role as Taoiseach last December.

Still, despite Martin’s loyalty to the post, betting sites are weighing up who will eventually replace the 63-year-old.

And while the list of contenders across Fianna Fáil’s front bench is wide, most bookies are pushing for a one-on-one battle between two top names within the party.

Fianna Fáil Leader Betting

Martin currently holds the power within Fianna Fáil and it’s likely that he will take the party into the next Irish election in spring 2025. 

However, his party is not exactly excelling in the polls. Fianna Fáil are polling at around 19%, which is where their poll ratings sat in the immediate aftermath of the last election.

Support for Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael has decreased to drop close to Fianna Fáil’s numbers, but the big uptick in the polls has been with Sinn Féin. 

Mary Lou McDonald’s party is polling between 29% and 35% and is enjoying an uptick in support, at the expense largely of Fine Gael.

Martin has endured criticism in recent months, with suggestions Fianna Fáil has been remoulded for his benefit and his alone. 

It’s no secret that Martin eyes a powerful job once again but, as the polling indicates, his best bet is to share the Taoiseach duties once again after the next election.

With flatlining support for Fianna Fáil and persistent rumours that Martin may go for the EU Commissioner post in 2024, new betting sites are figuring out who could replace him as party leader.

And the two candidates that stick out are Michael McGrath and Jim O’Callaghan.

Michael McGrath Odds

As finance minister, McGrath is perfectly placed to succeed Martin should the party leader either jump ship or be ousted, perhaps after a disappointing set of election results in 2025.

McGrath has only been in the role for a year but has set out to win the approval of voters. His 2024 budget focused heavily on what to do with windfall corporation taxes, which have puffed up the Irish economy by billions or euros.

His Future Ireland Fund is the sort of landmark project that a future party leader and viable Taoiseach can point to when canvassing support among voters.

McGrath has moved into top spot with BoyleSports to replace Martin, at Evens (1/1). His odds, which were once as wide as 6/1, have come in since the budget.

Jim O’Callaghan Odds

The other big contender for Martin’s job is O’Callaghan, the TD for Dublin Bay South who was once the frontrunner in this market with political betting sites.

His odds of 2/1 indicate a drift in support, yet 29% of all bets in this market are backing him.

O’Callaghan’s name began to spike in the markets over the summer when FF’s parliamentary party members came together to request Martin appoint a deputy. 

Whoever became Martin’s No.2 would likely be the de facto successor to the leader.

While Martin rejected the advance, it cast O’Callaghan into the spotlight.

In more recent times O’Callaghan, the FF justice spokesperson, has been vocal about the need to increase police presence in Dublin following a string of assaults over the summer. 

He has also argued for a “change of policy” to address the violence in the city, telling TodayFM that “policing needs to get much tougher”.

O’Callaghan would probably be an ideal candidate for Fianna Fáil’s deputy leader, were a post to exist. 

As a conservative party, its members are always going to gravitate towards those whose brief is justice and security. O’Callaghan is therefore well placed to eventually replace Martin.

Best of the Rest

There is no shortage of candidates who would likely put their name forward to lead Fianna Fáil once Martin cedes power. 

Junior trade minister Dara Calleary played his part in the budget and is the 7/1 third favourite for the post.

Former agriculture minister Barry Cowen has his eyes on the European Parliament next year, but is still well priced here at 10/1 with betting apps.

Were Cowen to become an MEP it would only strengthen his credentials for a shot at the party leadership, but not for years to come.

And housing minister Darragh O’Brien, who is never too far from controversy or criticism, is among the frontrunners at 12/1. 

O’Brien has been at odds with Sinn Féin in recent weeks over housing reforms, yet can fall foul of his own errors of judgement now and again.

There is no guarantee any of these candidates will even be in a position to succeed Martin when the Tanaiste finally steps aside. 

For now, Fianna Fáil is in full support of their leader and Martin has no real reason to jump ship.