Political Betting Specials: Latest Odds On Global Affairs
Political betting sites have a lot to focus on. Whether it’s sleaze at the top of Britain’s government, the spectre of Donald Trump looming over the White House, or the perpetual wrangling around Brexit.
Whereas you used to be able to bet solely on general elections, now there is a litany of markets available for punters.
Included in this are long-standing wagers on national elections across the world, the make-up of parliaments in the UK and further afield, and weird side bets that cover everything from the gender of the next president to what colour tie Emmanuel Macron will wear next.
When a new election is announced politics betting sites are swift to strike up a market, offering a wide range of odds on every outcome imaginable.
And there are some great side markets that also emerge, which often prove more profitable to punters than the obvious choices.
With that in mind, Gambling.com has collected the latest political betting specials from the UK’s best betting sites.
Despite the remarkable fall of Boris Johnson and his inevitable exit as UK prime minister, Labour are not on course to win a majority at the next general election. That is according to the bookmakers, who reckon a Conservative majority remains the most likely outcome at 5/2.
A Labour minority, however, is priced at 11/4. That suggests a 27% chance of Labour overseeing a minority government, which actually isn’t as outlandish as one might suspect.
After all, the Tories are currently split over who should be their next leader, and have recently sugared humbling by-election results.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats won’t admit it but agreeing not to stand candidates against Tories at the next election would likely see them conquer blue seats across the country.
Could Sir Keir Starmer secure a minority Labour government propped up by the Lib Dems? It’s certainly possible, especially with them leading by six points in the polls.
|No Overall Majority||57.90%||8/11||8/11|
Lib Dems To Win 40 Seats
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, look on course to enjoy a successful next election. The party that last came to power as a slice of David Cameron’s coalition government in 2010, the Lib Dems have since fallen way out of favour with the electorate.
Not so much this year, with wins in Tiverton & Honiton and North Shropshire providing they can wrest blue seats off the Tories.
Nailing 40 seats would be a big ask for leader Sir Ed Davey. But at 2/1 William Hill evidently think the Lib Dems have a chance to greatly harm the Conservatives at the next election.
Conservatives To Increase Majority
On the flip side, the recent Conservative leadership race has revealed that much of the country is still concerned with Brexit – and this could play into the Tories’ hands nicely.
The long delays at Dover to cross the channel, the perpetual arguments over Northern Ireland, and an energy crisis that is gripping Europe have all focused the minds of Brexiteer voters yet to be satisfied by how the government has implemented the 2016 referendum result.
Johnson won an 80-seat majority at the 2019 election on the basis he would “get Brexit done”. The UK has now left the EU but there are still issues to be dealt with.
Can the Conservatives use this never-ending saga over Brexit to rally support again at the next election? Bookmakers reckon they’re 16/1 to increase Johnson’s majority. That’s a tough ask – especially if Labour and the Lib Dems team up. But if Brexit becomes the big voting issue once again then it is achievable.
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Ron DeSantis to be VP
Ron DeSantis is right now Donald Trump’s biggest rival to be the next US president. He is more likely to win the presidency in 2024 than incumbent Joe Biden – according to the odds – and the Florida governor isn’t hanging around.
He looks certain to challenge Trump for the Republican nomination. But with the Trump machine in full swing, he may have to make do with being the businessman’s vice president.
At 2/1 the bookies reckon he’s more likely to be VP under Trump than sitting in the Oval Office himself. But that’s still a good price for a figure who has only come to fruition since the 2020 election defeat.
One outcome that would help DeSantis bypass the vice presidency and go for the top job is if Trump cannot run. And the former president is currently 7/2 to be indicted over his participation in the January 6 riots.
Critics say Trump should be charged over the storming of the Capitol building, which resulted in the deaths of seven people. Were he to be found guilty he would not be able to run for office again.
Trump is still 2/1 to win the next US election. But those odds would swing wildly if criminal charges were brought against him.
There was progress in talks of Korean Unification during Donald Trump’s reign as US president but increasingly it appears as though this was more of a photo op for the former Commander in Chief, rather than a realistic coupling of North and South Korea after decades apart.
However, Paddy Power politics odds price a unification on the peninsula at 2/1 by the end of 2023. That’s a short price and is even more surprising considering recent reports that the majority of South Koreans aged under 40 aren’t interested in unification.
Yet the economic might of China, the response to the coronavirus pandemic and the worsening health of North Korea’s population could force the issue onto the table once again.
Year of Next Irish Election
Ireland’s parliament is almost perfectly split between Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael parties – and the 2020 election left ministers with a political headache to overcome.
The next Irish election must take place by March 2025. But with no Taoiseach mandated to form a government, there is a perpetual swing between the parties to nominate a Dáil leader.
Micheál Martin will step down as Taoiseach this December, and be replaced by Leo Varadkar from Fine Gael. Whether they remain in power until the next election remains to be seen – and right now no-one is totally sure when that election will be.
Sinn Féin are riding high in the polls, which will deter the other two parties from calling a snap vote. The bookies reckon it will be 2025 when the next election is held, although a 2024 Irish election is priced at 5/2.
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