Irish Election Odds: Latest Betting Movements Ahead of 2025 Vote

Irish Election Odds: Latest Betting Movements Ahead of 2025 Vote
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Betting sites reckon there is a 25% chance Ireland holds a snap election next year after the Dáil’s coalition lost its formal majority.

Ireland is currently governed by a three-party coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens.

They have been in government since the 2020 Irish election and comfortably won a parliamentary confidence motion in July, but only after surrendering their control of the lower house.

Coalition deputy Joe McHugh’s recent withdrawal means Ireland’s ruling parties now have just 79 seats in a house of 160.

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Yet there are growing concerns the coalition may not last much longer as tensions simmer heading into the summer recess.

Disagreements between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael over carbon emissions has resulted in reports the Greens could walk from the coalition.

Doing this would collapse the government and could well spark a snap election. Green Senator Pauline O’Reilly conceded the negotiations over reducing carbon emissions between 30% and 22% was a deal breaker for her party.

“At the end of the day this can’t wait, we need to stop talking, we need to agree on a target and get on with the action that’s required,” Sen. O’Reilly said.

Irish General Election - Most Seats Odds

Sinn Féin1/3Paddy Power
Fine Gael4/1BoyleSports
Fianna Fáil14/1William Hill
Social Democrats200/1William Hill
Green Party200/1BoyleSports
Labour500/1William Hill

Snap Election In Ireland Not Likely

Yet political betting sites are yet to overhaul their odds on a snap election taking place this year. In fact, the most likely election date remains the scheduled 2025 vote.

Betting apps have priced that at 6/4, while a 2023 Irish election is a 3/1 shot. Still, those latter odds suggest there is a very real possibility that Ireland will again head to the ballot boxes.

The reason for the short odds on 2023 being a possible election year is because bookmakers are never sure what’s going to happen under coalition rule.

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It’s unlikely the Greens would walk away from government over the carbon emissions issue, unless Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael left it totally unresolved.

Meanwhile, the two main governing parties are in no mood to fight another election right now. Sinn Féin is riding high in the polls at 36%, while Fine Gael trails by 16 points and Fianna Fáil by 23.

No wonder Paddy Power give Sinn Féin a 1/3 price on them winning the most seats at the next election.

That may not guarantee the republican party the right to govern though, as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil would probably seek to prop each other up again – but it exposes the drop in support for the governing parties right now.

Taoiseach After Next Election Betting Odds Odds

Mary Lou McDonald4/6William Hill
Leo Varadkar7/2BoyleSports
Simon Coveney11/1BoyleSports
Paschal Donohoe20/1William Hill
Michael Martin20/1William Hill

Who Will Be Ireland’s Next Taoiseach?

Meanwhile, Leo Varadkar is expected to be the next Taoiseach of Ireland when Micheál Martin hands back power to the Fine Gael leader in December. Yet Varadkar is not favourite to lead Ireland’s parliament after the next election.

Instead, William Hill reckon Sinn Féin’s opposition leader Mary Lou McDonald will get the job. She is 4/6 to be Taoiseach after the next election, whenever that may be.

But for this to happen McDonald would likely need to court other parties to prop her up.

It means predicting who will win the next Irish election is immensely tricky. Sinn Féin may have the poll lead, but combined Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil could have enough to deny the democratic socialists power.

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One of the major issues facing all three parties right now is what to do about Northern Ireland and the UK’s determination to rip up the Brexit protocol.

Avoiding a hard border is paramount not only for Ireland, but also the EU. Yet relations between Dublin and London are strained, and Belfast is caught in the middle.

The government also needs to address issues around housing, inflation and a stretched health service in order to keep voters onside between now and election day.

And while it appears as though 2025 will be the next time the Irish head to the polls, there’s every chance a snap vote could soon be called.