Irish Election Odds: Latest Betting Movements Ahead Of Likely 2025 Vote
Betting sites have tweaked their odds on Ireland holding a snap election, increasing the likelihood that the current coalition will hold firm until polls open again in 2025.
There had been much speculation in the betting markets over the summer that a growing void between the three-party coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens would lead to a snap election.
The coalition currently rules as a minority holding 79 of the 160-seat Dáil (lower house). They have been in government since 2020 and comfortably won a parliamentary confidence motion in July.
Disagreements between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael over carbon emissions has resulted in reports the Greens could walk from the coalition.
That friction has since abated, even though it exposed the fragility of a three-way government.
What’s more, the government beat Sinn Féin’s no confidence vote in July that effectively put an end to any opposition hopes of a snap election.
It means that, following a tense summer recess, the sticking points across the government’s three parties have settled just enough to convince bookmakers that a snap poll isn’t forthcoming.
Irish General Election - Most Seats Odds
| Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sinn Féin | 1/5 | Paddy Power |
| Fine Gael | 8/1 | BoyleSports |
| Fianna Fáil | 14/1 | William Hill |
| Social Democrats | 200/1 | William Hill |
| Labour | 500/1 | William Hill |
| Green Party | 1,000/1 | BoyleSports |
Snap Election In Ireland Not Likely
Indeed, political betting sites have altered their odds on the next Irish election date. Having set out a price of 3/1 on a snap election next year, those odds have now expanded to 7/2.
It reflects a chance shift of 25% to 22.2% - a small change but nevertheless an indication of a trend setting in.
Meanwhile, the odds of Ireland next going to the polls in 2025 for the scheduled general election have moved from 6/4 (40%) to 5/6 (54.5%).
Again, it reveals confidence from within the betting markets and polling companies that the Oireachtas isn’t about to fall.
This is obviously good news for Ireland’s three governing parties. But it does still mean there are three years of minority coalition rule ahead.
What’s more, there is now growing chatter about a United Ireland referendum - something that plays into the hands of Sinn Féin, which was the most popular party in Stormont’s recent elections.
No wonder, then, that Paddy Power give Sinn Féin a 1/5 price on winning the most seats at the next Irish election.
Those odds have crashed since the summer and indicate the evident strength of support for Ireland’s current main opposition party.
Of course, winning most seats in the Irish general election is no guarantee of power. After all, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil could well team up again to block Sinn Féin.
The parties are 8/1 to 14/1 respectively to win the most seats - a sign of just how unlikely that is.
Taoiseach After Next Election Betting Odds
| Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Lou McDonald | 4/6 | William Hill |
| Leo Varadkar | 7/2 | BoyleSports |
| Simon Coveney | 11/1 | BoyleSports |
| Paschal Donohoe | 20/1 | William Hill |
| Michael Martin | 20/1 | William Hill |
Who Will Be Ireland’s Next Taoiseach?
Another big question on the Irish political agenda is who will be the next Taoiseach of the country?
Micheál Martin is the current leader of the government, but his tenure is scheduled to end in December 2022 - at which point former Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar will take over.
Betting apps expect that to go off without a hitch, and Varadkar would then have two-and-a-half years to lead the coalition until the next election.
But the bookies also doubt that Varadkar will be in power come 2025. Indeed, the latest odds from William Hill suggest Sinn Féin’s opposition leader Mary Lou McDonald will get the top job. She is 4/6 to be the next Taoiseach, with Varadkar out at 7/2.
In terms of chance, then, McDonald has a 60% to 31% advantage over Varadkar. Yes, we might still be three years out from the election but it’s a fairly strong position to be in for McDonald.
Between now and then there will be a lot of political mud slung and plenty of issues to wade through. The big one for Ireland is its relationship with Northern Ireland, especially with the UK government’s volatile approach to Brexit negotiations.
There is a rising spirit of republicanism in the north - not enough to trigger a United Ireland referendum just yet, but certainly one for politicians to keep an eye on.
What’s more, the winter energy crisis, inflation, house prices and employment are all set to put Martin’s government to the test between now and Christmas.
Whether Varadkar can then steer Ireland into next spring and offer a more hopeful picture of the future remains to be seen.
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