Political Betting Specials: Latest Odds On Global Affairs

Political Betting Specials: Latest Odds On Global Affairs
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The world of politics has rarely been so fraught as it is right now, what with the UK government’s crushing disapproval ratings, the spectre of Donald Trump looming over the US, and international relations between Russia and the West soured over the former’s invasion of Ukraine.

Every week a new drama unfolds – whether it’s the storming of the US Capitol, a Downing Street partygate scandal, or the latest rise of Marine Le Pen in France.

The best political betting sites are often swiftly on hand to offer odds on the latest machinations around the world. Usually, the odds focus on elections and who will come into power, but there are also plenty of markets on politics betting specials.

These can range from voting on a United Ireland or Scottish Independence, right through to what colour coat the next US president will wear at their inauguration.

With that in mind, Gambling.com has collected the latest political betting specials from NZ betting sites.

Kamala Harris To Be President By 2040 – 6/5

Current US vice president Kamala Harris is the fourth favourite to win the 2024 US election. But if Joe Biden decides to run again – most likely against Donald Trump – then Harris may have to wait a further decade to get a real shot at the Oval Office.

Harris certainly ticks the right boxes for left-of-centre voters in America, and Republicans fear she could capture the middle ground against a firebrand like Trump or even Ron DeSantis.

William Hill price her at 6/5 to have become president by the end of 2040. That’s five election cycles. Were the Republicans to win in 2024 and oust Biden from office, Harris would face a difficult job winning in 2028. But a 2032 victory could be within her sights.

Conservatives Fail To Win Majority – 8/11

The next UK election is not expected to take place until its scheduled summer 2025 date – and this means there is still plenty of time for the Tories to claw back a poll deficit against Labour. But right now UK bookmakers don’t believe the Conservatives will win a majority at the next election.

Despite Boris Johnson securing an 80-seat majority at the 2019 vote, issues over Brexit, coronavirus, Westminster sleaze and economic inflation are beginning to pull at the PM’s popularity.

Coral’s odds on the Tories failing to secure a majority at the next election at 8/11. That’s still more likely than Labour to come into government, but it’s a big slip from the heights of 2019.

Lib Dems Win Over 25 Seats – 6/4

Sticking with the UK, the fall in popularity among Tory voters doesn’t necessarily mean they flip straight to Labour. In 2010 many Labour supporters voted instead for the Lib Dems, which meant Britain’s third-biggest party formed a five-year coalition with the Conservatives.

Right now, a similar shift of voter intention could well occur. The Tories are losing voters primarily from the ‘Red Wall’ areas who had traditionally voted Labour. But they may also lose further votes to the Lib Dems, while Labour’s refusal to consider a return to EU membership may also hit them hard at the ballot box.

The Lib Dems currently have 13 MPs and landing 12 more would be a big achievement. That’s why betting sites have them at 6/4 to effectively double their number.

Korean Unification – 2/1

There was progress in talks of Korean Unification during Donald Trump’s reign as US president but increasingly it appears as though this was more of a photo op for the former Commander in Chief, rather than a realistic coupling of North and South Korea after decades apart.

However, online bookmakers price a unification on the peninsula at 2/1 by the end of 2023. That’s a short price and is even more surprising considering recent reports that the majority of South Koreans aged under 40 aren’t interested in unification.

Yet the economic might of China, the response to the coronavirus pandemic and the worsening health of North Korea’s population could force the issue onto the table once again.

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Macron Vote Share Odds

Both betting sites and pollsters believe Emmanuel Macron is on course to win the 2022 French election. Yet punters are practically split on whether he will claim a big win in the first round of voting.

French elections are usually a two-part affair whereby the population casts their votes on a first-choice candidate. If there is no majority win here, the list whittles down to two people, who then square off before a second vote two weeks later.

Macron is 3/4 (57% likelihood) to win fewer than 25% of the votes. He is 9/10 (52% likelihood ) to win more than a quarter in the first round. Eventually he should win in the second round, even if Le Pen makes it through with him.

Bets on this market are currently split almost 50/50 between the two outcomes. It’s certainly a more volatile and potentially profitable market compared to the outright winner odds.