Best Long Shots At Augusta – Three Outside Masters 2023 Betting Picks
Betting at the Masters is expected to focus on the Big Three – Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. But in doing so, both bookmakers and punters are missing out on value elsewhere.
There will be a maximum of 90 golfers competing for the coveted Green Jacket this April.
Tournament organisers have begrudgingly accepted LIV golfers onto the list, which means there could be some spiky scenes on the luscious greens and fairways of Augusta National.
Rivalries aside, the Masters is always a spectacle to behold. And 2023 will be no different, this tournament is usually one that delivers golfing excellence.
It’s a notoriously difficult course, and because of that only the very-best, in-form players realistically stand a chance of winning the year’s first major.
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US Masters betting sites are well aware of this, and quite rightly plunge the odds of in-form players.
It means past champions who are out of form can slip under the betting radar at the Masters, as the focus is drawn elsewhere.
And this is good news for bettors. After all, placing a bet on the Masters isn’t all about who wears the Green Jacket come Sunday evening.
There are plenty of bet options out there, and the big one to exploit is the Top 10 finish – a wager that, like an Each-Way bet in horse racing – has a tendency to produce profits on outsiders.
With that in mind, we’ve crunched the numbers and taken a look at three Masters picks that are priced at 50/1 or above.
The implied probability of a winner at 50/1 is 2%. But perhaps the bookies will be wrong this year…
Masters 2023 Outside Picks
Indeed, even at a tournament like the Masters, sometimes an outsider storms in to claim victory. Hideki Matsuyama claimed victory in 2021 despite being ranked 25th in the world.
In 2016 Danny Willett, who had never been higher than sixth at a major, delivered a remarkable triumph to finish three shots ahead of Jordan Spieth and Lee Westwood.
And who can forget Trevor Immelman in 2008, when he led from practically his first shot and beat the in-form Tiger Woods by three strokes to claim $1.35m in prize money and the Green Jacket?
So, could another rank outsider claim victory here? Below are three very possible picks…
One of golf’s rising names is Kurt Kitayama, the 30-year-old Californian who only recently won his first career PGA Tour title at the Arnold Palmer.
The win shot Kitayama into the PGA’s top six. And while he’s since dropped to eighth, Kitayama is still an interesting prospect heading into the Masters.
“Finding those little successes around the world and making it out here, putting myself in contention, you start to really believe in yourself, that you belong out here,” Kitayama recently said.
And he does belong there. But betting apps don’t seem to have noticed him. Bettors can snap up Kitayama at 100/1 on him to win the Masters. And an Each-Way bet on a top-eight finish isn’t a bad shout.
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Bookmakers have priced Tyrrell Hatton at 50/1 to win the Masters this year, and it’s not a bad bet considering his form.
Hatton hasn’t won a tournament this year but has secured four top-seven finishes, making him a worthwhile Each-Way wager.
The Englishman has not finished better than tied 18th at Augusta but past form shouldn’t be an issue here.
Instead, let’s look at his recent finishes. Hatton admitted himself he was shocked to be runner-up to Scheffler at The Players last month.
He zoned in on the greens, and battled in the final round to equal the lowest back-nine total (29) in tournament history.
Hatton’s best major finish last year was tied 11th at the Open. If he hits like he did at TPC Sawgrass then he’s sure to finish higher here.
Some may feel it’s a cop-out backing Justin Rose to win the Masters. After all, the Englishman is usually one of the names bettors gravitate towards when a major comes around.
But golf betting sites have gradually backed away from Rose since his sole major victory at the US Open in 2013. Over the past decade he’s finished runner up at three more majors, twice at Augusta.
Could this be his year? Quite possibly. Rose has posted five top-10 finishes since 2012 at the Masters, and knows the course inside out.
He also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by three strokes back in February – his first PGA Tour triumph in four years.
His mix of experience and form – he tied sixth at The Players in March – places Rose among the “possible” outsiders to don the Green Jacket this April. And at 66/1, he’s really not a bad shout.
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