Aberdeen South By-Election Odds: Opportunity Knocks For Tory Leader Badenoch

On June 18, British politics will be consumed by the most consequential by-election this century and arguably ever. 

We have discussed the Makerfield contest on these pages, but don’t miss out on two other by-elections taking place in Scotland on the same day. 

One of them may also end up having a significant impact.

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The by-elections were called because the two incumbent MPs have now been elected to the Scottish Parliament. Both were among the nine seats retained by the SNP in an otherwise disastrous 2024 general election. 

Given the Scottish Nationalists have since bounced back with a dominant victory in May’s elections for Holyrood, it is no surprise to see them start as odds-on favourites with all betting sites offering prices.

Do not, however, assume they are certainties.

SNP To Hold Arbroath And Broughty Ferry Easily

In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, odds of 1/7 with Ladbrokes are perfectly justified. 

First contested in 2024, SNP only won the constituency by 2% from Labour. 

However the wider context is that Labour were enjoying their best results across Scotland in 14 years and SNP their worst. That momentum has since significantly reversed.

Electoralcalculus currently projects an 18% winning margin, with Reform jumping straight into second place. 

Its ever useful demographic indicators label the electorate’s tribe as ‘strong left’, which again points to a comfortable hold as SNP should pick up many of the inevitable Labour defectors.

Arbroath And Broughty Ferry By-Election Odds:

Odds correct at time of publishing at 1pm on June 5, 2026

Aberdeen South Much More Competitive

Aberdeen South is a very different constituency. Historically, several parties have won or gone close here, but more recently it seems to have become a SNP/Conservative marginal. 

The latter won it in 2017 and were a very clear second in 2019. 

Five years later in 2024, it was a fairly close three-way contest, with the SNP prevailing on 35%, ahead of Labour on 25% and the Tories on 24%. 

Again, thinking of the wider picture in Scotland, expect Labour to fall back sharply.

Here, the electorate is labelled as ‘kind capitalist’ and is younger, wealthier and better educated than the Scottish average. Oil and gas play a critical role in the local economy and the future of the industry will be central to this by-election.

The electoralcalculus projection is a 15% winning margin for the incumbents. 

However, that is highly questionable given what happened in last month's Scottish elections and the particular dynamics of this contest.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader in Westminster, beat the Tories by a mere 3.5%, despite probably benefitting from a personal vote. The SNP's tally was 34%, so they would be vulnerable were supporters of other parties to tactically coalesce around an alternative.

A Referendum On North Sea Drilling?

That might just happen. There is nothing like a standalone by-election for running a single issue campaign and that is precisely what the Tories are doing. 

Kemi Badenoch has been campaigning in the constituency, framing the contest as a ‘referendum on the future of the North Sea oil and gas industry’.

This is a powerful argument in the current context. 

The Labour government stands accused of causing job losses due to their Energy Profits Levy and blocking new drilling. 

The SNP have a draft position for a presumption against new licences for drilling.

Whilst the SNP may try to adopt a more oil and gas friendly position for this by-election, they will find it hard to sell as their administration is in a power-sharing agreement with the Greens.

Aberdeen South By-Election Odds:

Odds correct at time of publishing at 1pm on June 5, 2026

Building A Unionist Coalition Is Realistic In Aberdeen

Can Badenoch build that tactical coalition with supporters of parties who are usually mortal enemies of the Conservatives? In England, it would be unlikely but Scotland is very different. 

Ever since the 2014 independence referendum, the SNP have monopolised the nationalist vote, while unionists have tended to shop around for the best tactical option. 

Aberdeen was staunch unionist, by around 60-40%, in that referendum, and there’s no question the Tories are the strongest unionist option. 

Odds of 2/1 with Betfred about them make plenty of appeal.

Badenoch Stock Rising

A Conservative gain here would provide a huge boost for Badenoch, whose stock has been rising. 

Her net approvals have risen to the best of any party leader and, from being regarded as highly vulnerable last year, her position looks safe now.

The next general election remains wide open, with all sorts of potential outcomes. 

The job of any opposition party is to become a magnet for anti-government sentiment. 

Blanket publicity enabled Reform to seize much of that during the early stages of what is an unpopular Labour government, but they seem to have hit a ceiling.

The headlines on June 19 may well be that Andy Burnham has defeated Reform in Makerfield, while Badenoch’s Tories have landed their first by-election gain in five years. 

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The narrative may begin to shift away from Reform to the old duopoly which has dominated every general election for a century.

Currently the Conservatives are 5/1 with some betting apps to win the most seats at the next general election - a market which could plausibly be won with as few as 200 seats. 

Given that they start in clear second place on 121 and are on an upwards trajectory, there is plenty of scope for those odds to crash.    

Who will win the Aberdeen South by-election? Leave your comments in the box below!