David Cameron Odds To Be Prime Minister Revealed As Ex-PM Returns

Date IconLast Updated: 15 Nov 2023
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David Cameron Odds To Be Prime Minister Revealed As Ex-PM Returns
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David Cameron is back in frontline politics seven years after he quit as UK prime minister, but UK betting sites don’t expect him to lead the country again any time soon.

Cameron has been appointed foreign secretary under prime minister Rishi Sunak despite not being an elected MP.

He is to be appointed into the House of Lords so that he can take up the government role and help prop up Sunak’s flailing government that has lurched from one crisis to another in recent months.

Cameron replaces Suella Braverman, the renegade MP for Fareham who pushed Sunak’s loyalty too far when igniting far-right tensions over the Remembrance Day weekend.

Sunak hopes that by appointing a former prime minister to his cabinet he can stem the wave of pessimism across his party and position himself as an electable figure heading into the next UK election.

It is understood that Cameron, meanwhile, is not merely here for the short term and considers a return to frontline politics as an opportunity to rewrite his chequered reputation.

David Cameron Odds

Yet political betting sites don’t think Cameron is returning to Westminster with an eye on the top job.

According to the bookies, the 57-year-old is 100/1 to be prime minister before 2040. 

Any normal appointment to foreign secretary would be considered to have shorter odds than this. Yet Cameron’s is not a normal appointment.

He is back beside the seat of power in the UK government yet doesn’t even represent the electorate. 

Being parachuted into the House of Lords means he can be secretary of state but cannot be questioned by fellow MPs in the House of Commons.

Instead, it may well be down to fellow unelected Lords to quiz Cameron over the UK’s foreign policy.

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Best Odds
% Chance
Labour Party
83.33%
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No Overall Majority
16.67%
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Conservative Party
6.67%
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Could Cameron Be Prime Minister?

The Marquess of Salisbury was the last peer to serve as UK prime minister back in the 1800s. Since then the PM has always been an elected Member of Parliament.

It would be highly unusual for Cameron to succeed Sunak while still only a peer. In fact, it’s likely that fellow MPs would not accept the appointment.

Cameron would need to win a seat at the next UK general election in order to realistically gun for the Tory leadership. 

However, it’s likely that the Conservatives will lose the next election. So, while the top job in the party may become available, does Cameron really want to lead the Tories in opposition again?

Then there is the question of whether he is even wanted. Cameron is disliked by swathes of the electorate. 

Remainers blame him for hubristically calling the Brexit referendum and then running for the hills when the Leave vote won. Brexiteers dislike him for campaigning for Remain. 

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The left hate him for his austerity policies while in office, and the far right are furious he has replaced their champion Braverman.

Cameron served as prime minister between 2010 and 2016, leaving the day after the Brexit vote. At 57, he is still relatively young for a frontline politician.

If he sticks around and potentially runs in a constituency at the next UK election then the betting apps will have to think hard about cutting his odds on being prime minister again.

For now, he has a 1% chance of returning the No.10. But the last few years of Tory-led politics has been anything but predictable and Cameron could be the figure to help his party out of its current mire.

Perhaps not now, but maybe within the next decade if he truly wants a life back on the political front line.