Denmark Election Odds: Frederiksen’s Price Falls After Announcing Vote

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Denmark Election Odds: Frederiksen’s Price Falls After Announcing Vote
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UK bookmakers have slashed Denmark prime minister Mette Frederiksen’s odds of winning the country’s upcoming election following her announcement of the November 1 poll.

Frederiksen has called a general election in Denmark with opinion polls suggesting it’s currently too close to call.


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The 44-year-old, who has been in office since 2019, has been forced to put her leadership to the ultimate test after becoming embroiled in a mink culling scandal.

Frederiksen lost support of her closest allies following months of debate over the decision to cull the country’s 17-million mink population in 2020 due to Covid-19 fears.

The leader of the Social Democrats has steadily lost support from the Social Liberals, Red-Green Alliance and Green left parties that have propped up her government.

And now political betting sites aren’t totally sure who will lead Denmark into 2023.

Denmark Election Odds

According to the bookies, Frederiksen is 9/10 to be prime minister after the November 1 election. Those odds have come in from 21/20 but nevertheless reflect just a 52% probability of happening.

Compare that to this time last year, when the bookies gave Frederiksen a 75% chance of winning the next election.

The reason for the shift is two-fold. The first is the Social Democrats’ falling approval ratings due to the mink scandal. On top of this, the growing economic crisis in Europe, war with Russia and spiralling energy costs haven’t helped Frederiksen’s cause.

The PM said that she was reluctantly heading to the polls despite these crises, stating it was “nevertheless what a majority in parliament wants”.

This claim immediately pitches the PM against her former coalition colleagues, and betting sites are now weighing up who could replace her if a left-wing coalition fails to materialise come November.

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Who Could Challenge In Denmark?

Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, leader of the right-wing Venstre party, and the Conservative People’s Party’s Søren Pape Poulsen are both 9/4 to become the new PM.

Ellemann-Jensen had seemed the most likely replacement for Frederiksen. Venstre has 10 fewer seats than the Social Democrats right now, but is the leading right-wing party and could join forces with others to block off the left.

Ellemann-Jensen is also the opposition leader. However, Venstre’s own polling numbers have fallen since the beginning of 2021 and it is now Poulsen’s party that could form the biggest party in parliament.


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With no one party destined to form a majority, and Denmark’s propensity to forge coalition governments, it’s evident that this election isn’t going to be settled on the night.

Instead, what will likely entail is a period of negotiating between the big winners in the election, and the smaller parties who have claimed a handful of seats.

Right now, betting apps are favouring Frederiksen. But only just.

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Joe Short

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