Championship Play-Off Final Betting Tips: Our 3 Leeds Vs Southampton Picks
Championship Play-Off Final Tips:
- Match To Be Decided By Penalties – 9/2 Bet365
- Adam Armstrong First Goalscorer – 6/1 Unibet
- Crysencio Summerville Over 1.5 Shots On Target - 9/5 Betway
Leeds and Southampton will duel it out for an immediate return to the Premier League in the Championship play-off final on Sunday (3pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
Both teams suffered relegation from the top flight in the last campaign but have the chance to bounce back at the first attempt. Leeds missed out on automatic promotion after a late-season collapse, losing four of their last six matches.
However, Daniel Farke’s men dispatched his former side Norwich with ease in the semi-finals. The Whites ran rampant at Elland Road to surge into the final, putting four goals past the listless Canaries.
Leeds will enter Wembley with a spring in their step and as favourites with UK betting sites, but after losing both games to Southampton during the regular season there will be natural trepidation about their hopes of winning the richest game in football.
The Saints had a collapse of their own late in the campaign after it appeared they had a chance to close the gap on the top two. Three defeats on the spin derailed those hopes, but they regained their form by beating Leeds on the final day of the campaign.
Russell Martin’s side displayed their quality to see off West Brom in the semi-finals and could be peaking at the right time. Despite beating Leeds in both regular season matches, Southampton are underdogs with UK bookmakers, but who will return to the Premier League?
Not For The Faint-Hearted
When the play-offs were confirmed, these sides were seemingly on a collision course.
Both could and should have perhaps presented a stronger case to pip Ipswich to second place, but ultimately failed under the pressure cooker of the promotion battle.
Now the two sides face off in the richest game in football that could have huge ramifications for the futures of both clubs.
Win and a return to the Premier League is secured and the chance to solidify their standings in the top flight. Lose and a rebuild with several departures is almost guaranteed.
Although Leeds are favourites on football betting sites, their history against Southampton this season cannot be ignored.
Adam Armstrong put on a clinic with a first-half brace in a 3-1 win for Martin’s men in the first game against Leeds and he loomed large once more at Elland Road in a 2-1 triumph. Leeds have been unable to stop the forward from finding the net which will be a priority for them at Wembley.
On the other hand, Leeds also have dangerous players like Crysencio Summerville, Georginio Rutter and Joel Piroe who found the net in their drubbing of Norwich. Both sides can score and that makes it an appealing match for the neutral, not so much for supporters.
We’re anticipating a nervy contest. Desperation may play a factor and that could lead to a tactical battle between two experienced managers. Two of the last seven play-off finals have been decided by penalties, including last year’s duel between Luton and Coventry.
We fancy another nerve-shredder for the game to go the distance at Wembley at odds of 9/2 with Bet365.
Tip: Match To Be Decided By Penalties - 9/2 Bet365
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Armstrong To Trouble Leeds Again
Armstrong tormented almost every Championship team throughout the campaign, finishing with the most goal contributions in the second tier.
Not only was the 27-year-old deadly in front of goal with 23 strikes, second to only Sammie Szmodics, but he also supplied 13 assists for his team-mates.
He is Southampton’s most important player in the final third and after scoring three goals in two games against the Whites, Farke will be determined not to let him ruin his side’s promotion chances again.
The issue is that Armstrong manages to find a way to contribute, especially in the closing stages of the campaign where he scored or provided an assist in eight of his last 14 matches.
When the stakes were high against West Brom in the semi-final second leg, Armstrong scored twice and provided the assist for Will Smallbone to break the deadlock.
Armstrong is the favourite on betting apps to score or assist with odds of 11/10. But given Armstrong broke the deadlock in both matches against Leeds this season, we like the value for him to score first again at odds of 6/1 with Unibet.
Tip: Adam Armstrong First Goalscorer - 6/1 Unibet
Summerville To Carry Leeds Forward
Leeds will pose just as much of a threat in the final third with their plethora of talent.
Southampton will have concerns given their defensive record, shipping 63 goals in their 46 matches during the regular season.
As eye-catching as they are going forward, Martin’s men are not renowned for their defensive strength.
They’ll also have reserve keeper Alex McCarthy between the posts, which may encourage Leeds to shoot on sight. No player will accept that invitation more than Summerville.
The 22-year-old has registered at least one effort on goal in 25 of his last 26 matches, finding the net in eight of those games, including two braces.
Summerville has not produced his best in games against Southampton this season, but he will relish the spotlight of the play-off final.
We’re not going to go as far as backing him to score, but we like his odds of 9/5 with Betway to put two shots on target. This bet would have paid out in 14 of Summerville’s 48 matches this season.
Tip: Crysencio Summerville Over 1.5 Shots On Target – 9/5 With Betway
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