New York Mayoral Election Odds: Mamdani Tipped To Beat Adams And Sliwa

Betting sites believe Zohran Mamdani is the clear favourite to win this year’s New York mayoral election, but Eric Adams still has a chance of retaining the post.

New Yorkers will head to the polls in November to vote for a new mayor, and Adams will defend the seat he won in 2021.

Adams is running as an independent this year after federal corruption charges were dismissed. 

It means the Dems had a primary between Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo, which the former won.

Yet Cuomo might also stay in the race as an independent, while Republican Curtis Sliwa is looking to cause an against-the-odds upset in this race.

New York is one of the most congested and socially diverse cities in America. The mayor has wide-ranging responsibilities to uphold and deliver public services and keep public finances in check.

The state has a history of switching between Democratic and Republican candidates, with independents also standing a viable chance of being elected.

That’s why political betting sites aren’t ruling out a challenge to Mamdani just yet, despite his shock win in the Democratic primaries.

2025 New York Mayor Odds

The latest odds with betting apps suggest Mamdani will become New York’s next mayor. 

He won a surprising victory in the Democratic primaries, beating Cuomo 56% to 44% in the third round.

He is a 33-year-old progressive politician who, during his primary election campaign, advocated for free buses, rent freezes and tax rises on millionaires.

Adams, meanwhile, is ostracised from the Democratic party but still carries some support across the city.

Sliwa is polling at the same pace as Adams, while independent Jim Walden is way behind the rest.

As for Cuomo, polling before the Democratic primary result suggested he had a better chance of winning the mayoralty than Mamdani. 

Cuomo polls at 45% with New Yorkers, with his adversary at 33%.

And yet, Cuomo now has to decide whether or not to run as an independent after Mamdani’s victory.

Who Will Be Next New York Mayor?

The race for the next New York mayor is expected to heat up as we near November. It’s too easy to assume the Democrat candidate Mamdani will win, purely because they’re the party’s pick.

Yes, New York is a largely Democrat-leaning city, but it’s more conservative than Mamdani’s politics.

Of course, the spectre of Donald Trump hangs over New York, too. 

The president left New York for Florida during his first term and has a fraught relationship with the city.

Naturally, he fired shots at Mamdani the week he won the Democratic primary, falsely alleging he was “illegally” in the country. Trump added: “We don’t need a communist in this country, but if we have one, I’m going to be watching over him very carefully on behalf of the nation.”

For context, Mamdani is a naturalised US citizen, having been born in Uganda.

Trump has also endorsed Adams, saying, “You have a good independent running - Mayor Adams, who is a very good person.”

The president’s impact on the mayoral race could be significant – but not in the way he expects. By attacking Mamdani, Trump could inflame support for the 33-year-old state assemblyman.

Adams may also see his stock rise with Trump’s support, although in New York, it could have the opposite effect.

And then there is Cuomo, who could feasibly come through the middle and gain support from voters who don’t want to get dragged into a polarised Mamdani-Adams contest.

In fact, Cuomo and Adams’ presence practically kills Sliwa’s chances of winning, because non-Mamdani voters have two other options without going full-MAGA.

The odds suggest Mamdani will win, but don’t be surprised if Adams’ price falls this summer. 

Cuomo could make it a viable three-horse race, assuming he carries his support from the primaries into the election itself.