Newham Mayoral Election Odds: Is This The Best Race To Bet Against Labour?

May 7 is a huge day for elections across the UK, with betting sites offering a wide range of options.

Different parties are expected to thrive in different regions, but there is a common theme. Labour are heading for a terrible, perhaps catastrophic, beating.

Note, this was already the case before Keir Starmer's premiership was destabilised by the Peter Mandelson/Jeffrey Epstein scandal.

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Nationalists Ahead In Scotland And Wales

For example, when we last discussed the Welsh Senedd betting on these pages in October, the odds projected a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform. 

The former were then an 11/10 chance and have duly shortened to 4/11 with Star Sports. Reform are out to 5/2 with Bet365.

The Scottish Parliament elections don't look vaguely competitive, with SNP at 1/33 with William Hill to win most seats.

In England, thousands of council seats and several mayoral contests are up for re-election.

We will look deeper into these races as more markets become available. Today, let's focus on a specific mayoral race and what may well prove to be an outstanding value bet.

Governments Usually Suffer In Mid-Term Elections

First, some broad dynamics about local elections. These are almost always bad for the governing party, for reasons that apply in any era.

Turnout is way down compared to general elections and not evenly spread among demographics.

Simply, opponents are better motivated, angrier perhaps, to vote. Smaller, mid-term elections offer the perfect opportunity to register a protest vote against the government.

When Labour were last in government, they won three majorities in general elections, yet never fared well in mid-term, local or European elections.

To Win Most Seats At Next General Election: 

Newham Looks Vulnerable

Newham is an extremely deprived and ethnically diverse borough in East London.  

A median age of 32 is much younger than the national average. It has the lowest share of white voters in London. At 32%, it has the second highest share of Muslims in the UK.

In short, the type of area which Labour historically faced virtually no opposition. 

When the Newham mayoralty was last contested, Labour were completely dominant here, and more generally across London. Rokhsana Fiaz won with 56.2%, five times more than any rival.

Independent Muslim Candidates Rising

However, as we saw at the 2024 general election, even as Labour were winning a huge nationwide victory, they lost vast swathes of Muslim voters, principally due to their response to the Gaza conflict but also due to the emergence of strong, locally-orientated Muslim candidates.

Consequently, four independent Muslim candidates were elected as MPs, and formed a parliamentary group with Jeremy Corbyn.

Similar independents fared well in the constituencies within Newham, and even more so in neighbouring Ilford.

In Ilford South, Noor Begum finished second on 23.4%. In Ilford North, which almost neighbours Newham, Leanne Mohamed came within 1.2% of a monumental upset against the now health secretary, Wes Streeting.

The Newham Independents Party was only formed in 2023, and ran one candidate, finishing second in West Ham and Beckton. They now comprise a four councillor group on Newham Council and easily won a 2025 by-election in Plaistow.

Their candidate here, Mehmood Mirza, already has a local profile, as he won 8.5% in the previous mayoral election.

Certainly, the Newham Independents are a rising force in the area. They have secured the endorsement of Corbyn's Your Party, and the former Labour leader will campaign for them.

Labour’s Core Vote Splitting Three Ways

Where their bid could be problematic is competition from the Greens, who are also represented by a local Muslim councillor. 

The party are challenging Labour hard across London. Thus, the 'anti-Labour left vote' will be split.

However, that isn't Labour's only problem. Former mayor Sir Robin Wales has defected to Reform, along with their candidate and former council leader Clive Furness. 

Whilst extremely unlikely to win, these well-known local figures will have a following and take from Labour's share.

In the absence of reliable polling, there is a lot of guesswork involved, but that equally makes it likelier that the bookies will get it wrong.

At 4/7 (BetGoodwin), Labour make no appeal whatsoever given the circumstances. The Greens (10/1 with BetGoodwin) may underperform without being able to call upon this large Muslim vote. 

As voters consider which are the best-placed non-Labour options, the local group seems likely to benefit.

It could be that 35% will be enough to win this and that doesn't look unrealistic for the independents based on what we already know, plus national and local trends. Odds of 11/4 with William Hill may have gone, but 2/1 still looks decent value.

Recommended bet: Back Newham Independents to win the Newham Mayoral Election @ 2/1 with William Hill.

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