Welsh Senedd Election Odds: Reform Tipped For Victory In 2026

Betting sites believe Reform UK will win the most seats at the 2026 Welsh Senedd election in a monumental shake-up of British politics, although Plaid Cymru aren’t far behind.

Welsh voters go to the polls in May next year, with 96 seats up for grabs in the national parliament.

Reform are surging in the polls under leader Nigel Farage and they would come close to securing a parliamentary majority were a general election to be held today.

The right-wing party rumbled both Labour and the Conservatives at this May’s local elections in England and are making inroads in Scotland too.

Active in Wales but without any political power to date, Reform are now setting their eyes on the Senedd. And the latest odds suggest there is a good chance they will succeed.

Welsh Senedd Election

Coral recently cut its odds on Reform winning the most seats in the Senedd from Evens to 10/11 on political betting sites. 

The new price reflects a 52.4% probability and highlights a growing expectation among bookmakers and punters that Reform will thrive next spring.

Welsh Senedd Election Odds:

Plaid Cymru, who won 13 seats of the 60 seats available at the last election, have seen their odds sit at 13/8 (38.1%), while Labour’s have come in slightly to 5/1 (16.7%).

The odds are bad news for Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan. Her party won 50% of the seats at the last Welsh election, but are now projected to struggle in a three-way tussle against Reform and Plaid.

The polls are all over the place. Labour lead some but fall dramatically behind Reform in others. 

Plaid are the only party to hit 30 points since the last general election. Notably, none of the three parties have a lead that could result in securing a Senedd majority.

But majority victories in the Welsh government are unlikely from 2026 onwards as the Senedd takes up a new party-list voting system.

And that means the betting apps are focusing on who will win the most seats next year.

Who Will Win The Welsh Election?

We’re less than a year out from the Welsh Senedd election but the bookies seem increasingly confident about the outcome – even if the polls are muddled.

Reform’s vote share in Wales reflects UK-wide polls, with most surveys posting them in the high 20s. 

Tory support has evaporated across the country and Reform are reaping the benefit.

Reform are 10/11 to win the most seats in both the Welsh election and UK election odds.

And yet, success in Wales won’t come easy. Nationally, they only have one opponent: Labour. 

However, a revamped voting system and two genuine opponents – Plaid and Labour – means Reform can be attacked on multiple sides.

This is causing bookmakers a massive headache. It’s a lot easier to set odds when only two parties have a realistic chance of winning.

In Wales, no single party has a significant advantage over the others. 

Both the bookies and punters appear to have gone early on Reform, assuming their Senedd results will reflect the May election success.

That’s why their odds have passed Evens. But there’s a limit to how short that price can fall. After all, plenty can change between now and May 2026. 

Reform and Plaid may be from different ends of the political spectrum but they’re competing to be the “not Labour” option. 

With the Tories already gone, it remains to be seen if Labour can hold their own over the next year, or see their support sap away, too.

It’s very possible the UK’s two historically dominant political parties finish third and fourth in this election.

If Labour’s support dwindles then Plaid may see an uptick towards the high 20s. Or, Reform could surge and push into the high 30s.

It’s almost impossible to predict how Wales will vote next year, so the bookies are keeping Reform’s price in line with their nationwide odds. 

It’s down to Labour to force that change.