Recent Premier League Trends Point To Value in HT Betting
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It took several rounds of fixtures, but it seems a sense of normality has returned to this season's Premier League
Defenders have remembered how to defend, which is bad news for strikers who thought they could continue to score for fun.
After the opening four rounds of fixtures, football fans were being treated to an average 3.8 goals per game. Then came the first international break which seems to have given managers enough time to tighten up their defences.
Since the return, the last two rounds of games have produced a total of 47 goals, which is just three more than the total scored in the record-breaking Gameweek 2.
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Goals Per Gameweek This Season
| Gameweek | Total Goals | Total Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 8 |
| 2 | 44 | 10 |
| 3 | 36 | 10 |
| 4 | 41 | 10 |
| 5 | 28 | 10 |
| 6 | 19 | 10 |
Last weekend produced the lowest number of goals in a single round of fixtures this season with 19, which is only nine more than the lowest number ever scored in a weekend (10 in November 2001).
The last 20 matches have produced an average of 2.4 goals a game. Perhaps one of the reasons for this is that teams are now up to full speed after Covid-19 meant preparations for this campaign were not the same as they were in previous years.
A closer look at the results in recent weeks reveals an interesting trend. It seems managers are now starting matches with a more cautious approach to allow their players to settle into games. As a result, we are seeing more matches level at half-time.
Of the 58 fixtures played so far this season, 26 (44.8 per cent) have been level at the interval and 18 of those have been goalless.
Both those figures are significantly higher than at this stage last season when 19 (31.6 per cent) of the 60 games played were all square at the break with 14 of those failing to produce a goal.
As we enter Gameweek 7, a bet worth considering in your game of choice would be a draw at half-time, or a 0-0 draw for greater value. Of the 20 Premier League games played over the last two gameweeks, 12 have been level at the break. Furthermore, nine of the aforementioned 12 games have been 0-0 at half-time.
A breakdown of the goals scored this season shows there are more goals scored in the second-half than the first. There has been 191 goals scored in this campaign already and 57.1 per cent (109) have been netted after the interval.
Goals this season after 6 rounds:
- 1st half - 82 (42.9%)
- 2nd half - 109 (57.1%)
Goals last season after 6 rounds:
- 1st half - 83 (47.2%)
- 2nd half - 93 (52.8%)
Leicester lead the league in second-half goals with 11 of their 13 total goals scored in the second-half.
Chelsea are second with 10 of their 13 goals netted after the interval while eight of Leeds' 12 goals have come in the second period.
This weekend Leicester travel to Leeds in a game that might see all the action come in the second-half.
Leeds have not scored a first-half goal in their last four matches while Brendan Rodgers' side have now gone three games without scoring before half-time. Will this contest continue these trends?
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This Weekend's HT & 0-0 HT Odds
| Fixture | HT Draw Odds | 0-0 HT Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves v Crystal Palace | 20/21 | 5/4 |
| Sheffield Utd v Man City | 7/4 | 11/4 |
| Burnley v Chelsea | 7/5 | 12/5 |
| Liverpool v West Ham | 7/4 | 3/1 |
| Aston Villa v Southampton | 13/10 | 12/5 |
| Newcastle v Everton | 5/4 | 2/1 |
| Man Utd v Arsenal | 13/10 | 9/4 |
| Tottenham v Brighton | 7/5 | 12/5 |
| Fulham v West Brom | 11/10 | 13/8 |
| Leeds Utd v Leicester | 5/4 | 9/4 |
A couple of bets to consider would be for this fixture to be goalless at half-time which is available at 9/4 with most top bookmakers while a draw at the interval is trading at 5/4.
If recent trends are to continue, then the second-half could and should be the highest scoring at Elland Road which is priced at 11/10. And if you think both sides will score in the second-half, you can double your money with 2/1 odds.
Will managers continue to adopt a cautious approach this weekend, or will they be a little more adventurous? We’ll soon find out.
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