SLIPS: Brady Still Money, Notre Dame Perfectly Risky

Date IconLast Updated: 28 Sep 2022
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SLIPS: Brady Still Money, Notre Dame Perfectly Risky

Oddsmakers and bettors tend to exhibit great confidence in Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

So much so, Brady established a Super Bowl-era record on Sunday by bringing the five-time champions into their game against undefeated Kansas City as a favorite for the 56th consecutive game.

New England won, 43-40, with a late Stephen Gostkowski field goal, but it didn’t cover the 3.5-point spread, underscoring that there not only is joy in despising the Patriots, but an exploitable resource in betting against the National Football League’s most ubiquitous player and franchise.

“I think there is still value there,” SugarHouse Online Sportsbook analyst David Tuchman told “Obviously, if they are the favorite, you can take the dog and get the points. KC was getting 3-and-a-half. I was on that and we made money there. So, that was good.

“They lost plenty of games in that 56-game span, but they’re in a terrible division with great players and a great coach. Still, you see [Brady] favored 56 times in a row and you wonder if the linesmakers and bettors are getting lazy.”

According to ESPN Stats & Information, the previous favorite favorite was former Ram Kurt Warner, who held sway with oddsmakers and bettors for 55 consecutive games from 1999 through 2003.

Brady and the Patriots had not been underdogs since Week 13 in 2014 season, when they entered as a 2.5-point underdogs at Green Bay. They lost, 26-21.

Kansas City was the first 5-0 underdog since the Panthers (+1.5) at Dallas in 2015. The Panthers won, 33-14, en route to improve to 11-0.

New Patriots Might be Tapping Old Formula

There is much to like, Tuchman said, in this iteration of the Patriots with their 41-year-old three-time National Football League Most Valuable Player, even if they perhaps are favored too often.

“It’ll be fun to see Sony Michel if they continue to give him the rock, because that’s sort of what it seems like,” Tuchman observed. “They haven’t really had that kind of guy in a while.

“Part of me kind of equates this Patriots team, in a weird way, to the 1998 Denver Broncos where John Elways wasn’t quite the John Elway he was of ten years earlier … still a great quarterback but not quite as good, but they kind of had to figure out a new way to win.

“And I think now New England can do the same thing if they can rely on a running game and then you can supplement that with [tight end Rob Gronkowski] and [wide receiver Julian] Edelman and the rest of that. They already are a dangerous team, but then they become a really, really dangerous team. And I think in the first couple weeks of the season you saw how vulerable they were without a reliable running game, having to rely on just Gronk and Brady. I think they’re far more dangerous when they are as balanced as they are yesterday.”

Bears Disappoint in Rare Favorite Role

Chicago – which lost to the Dolphins, 31-28 in overtime on Sunday – entered the game as a seven-point favorite, the first time it had been favored by a touchdown on the road since 2010 against Minnesota, when the line was 6.5.

It was a popular play. Twenty percent of all money and eleven percent of all tickets – all highs for the weekend – wagered at William Hill were centered on the game.

The Los Angeles Rams are a +300 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl as the last remaining undefeated NFL team.

Paddy Power was offering 20/1 odds on any team going 16-0 before Sunday.

Golden Doldrums Covering Underdogs

Notre Dame continues its fitful slog toward college playoff consideration through a non-conference rogues gallery of middling competition. A late touchdown against woeful Pitt salvaged a 19-14 home win and a 7-0 record for the Irish and helped them improve to fourth nationally, although their deficiencies were on full display.

Bettors already know plenty about Notre Dame, specifically, to avoid them.

Notre Dame entered with a –1210 moneyline and a 21-point spread but needed the late rally and some strange Pitt (2-4) play-calling to avoid becoming yet another AP Top 10 casualty of the weekend.

The game marked the third double-digit line unattained at home against teams with losing records this season. Notre Dame was –34 in a 24-16 win against Ball State (3-4), -14 in a 22-17 win over Vanderbilt (3-4).

Finding a sure thing in college football remains bedeviling, except on low-yield bets on No. 1 Alabama.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, seven Associated Press top ten teams have lost the last two weeks, including four – then No. 2 Georgia, West Virginia, 6; Washington, 7; and Penn State, 8 – on Saturday). There were only six losses by top ten teams over the first five weeks combined.

One player at SugarHouse Sportsbook hit on 10-, 11- and 12-way parlays last week, according to a company spokesperson.

The 10-item winner was on international soccer friendlies. The 11-way was a mix of college football and other games and the 12-piece winner was all on NFL results. The player bet on alternate lines (picked his own point spread line for each bet). ...

... National Basketball Association bettors seems confident that Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokoumpo will win the Most Valuable Player Award, just ahead of LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers. .... Action is heavy on the Philadelphia 76ers winning the Eastern Conference. .... New York Knicks small forward Kevin Knox is the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year. .... SugarHouse is seeing high volume on the Knicks, owever, to win less than 29.5 games.