Virginia Gubernatorial Election 2025 Betting: Democrat Vs Republican Odds

Betting sites believe the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be a one-sided race, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger tipped to win this November.

Virginia is one of two states to vote for a governor this year in what is seen as an early acid test of Donald Trump’s presidency.

The Old Dominion tends to vote Democrat at presidential level, but its state legislature swings red to blue. 

Republican Glenn Youngkin is ineligible to run again, and, for the first time, Virginia has an all-woman shortlist of candidates from the two major parties.

Spanberger had served as a member of the US House of Representatives for Virginia’s 7th district since 2019, until she resigned to run for the state governorship this year.

She is up against Winsome Earle-Sears, Virginia’s first female lieutenant governor, who is looking to succeed Youngkin.

Virginia is considered a bellwether state that reflects the wider mood of the nation. 

If the Dems were to secure a big win here, then it could spell trouble for Trump. Should Earle-Sears win, then Trump has a welcome neighbour on the other side of the Potomac.

Virginia Gubernatorial Election 2025 Odds

Betting on the Virginia gubernatorial election is already in full swing at Ladbrokes. The bookmaker has Spanberger way ahead, with odds of 1/4. 

That price carries an 80% probability, which reflects optimism across political betting sites that the Dems will win this state.

However, Earle-Sears’ odds offer a one-in-four chance of success. Back in 2021, Democrat Terry McAuliffe held a seven-point lead in the polls and was winning at the bookies, only for Youngkin to turn things around on election day.

The odds evidently favour Spanberger, but what do the polls say? Well, back in February, Spanberger carved out a double-digit lead over her rival. However, one in four voters are still undecided.

And, like in all US elections, the undecideds are being targeted. Ads and personal attacks have already begun. 

It’s believed Spanberger has raised more than $15m for her campaign, with Earle-Sears perhaps securing a third of that in donations.

Money talks in US politics and the bookies evidently think Spanberger’s spending power gives her the edge right now.

Who Will Win The 2025 Virginia Gubernatorial Election?

So, betting apps reckon it’s Spanberger’s election to lose and, based on history, they may be right. 

This election is seen as a test of Trump’s second administration and his policies since returning to office. Virginia is a swing state when it comes to electing its governors.

In 2017, Virginians voted for the Democratic candidate in the wake of Trump’s first presidential election victory. Four years later, they flipped to the Republicans a year after Joe Biden secured the White House.

Will we see an anti-president vote again? Perhaps. Trump’s policies have proved controversial to date, and his approval ratings are sinking.

However, there is a glimmer of hope for Earle-Sears. Trump’s high-stakes gamble of imposing trade tariffs on other countries could, he hopes, rejuvenate the US economy. 

If the president starts increasing his approval rating, Republican politicians running for election this November will benefit.

That could be enough to get Earle-Sears back into the race and ensure her policy proposals are taken seriously.

Earle-Sears has worked under the incumbent governor, so knows the ropes. 

She’s also well-versed in winning tight races. Although socially conservative, she appears willing to buck “traditional Republican orthodoxy” that doesn’t float well in the state.

Time will tell if Earle-Sears can pull herself back in the polls, but, for now, Spanberger seems to be having it easy. She’s the “not Trump” candidate and could win on that alone.