NASCAR Cup Series Champion Betting Tips: 5 Keys to Consider

There are several common threads to keep in mind when betting on NASCAR Cup Series champions. While the format for crowning a champ has changed several times, even over the last decade, similar trends can be applied to breaking down the championship contenders.

As a quick refresher course, since 2014, NASCAR has implemented a format that breaks the year into 26 regular-season races and then a ten-race Playoff to decide the title. A total of 16 drivers qualify for the post-season, with four eliminated in each of the opening four race rounds based on point totals.

A win automatically gets you both into the postseason and also moves drivers to the next round of Playoffs if they find Victory Lane. The three rounds boil down to the four eligible drivers after the third round, who move on to the last race of the season.

The race within a race is between that quartet with the highest finisher among the group claiming the crown.

As drivers navigate the gauntlet of the grueling season, three keys have historically led to winning the championship:

Wins

The driver with the most wins over the course of the full season isn’t automatically the champ. However, winning, as they say, is the best avenue for success. Dating back to the 2010 season, championship driver win totals have been impressive. Joey Logano’s 2018 title saw him win three times, the lowest number over the decade. The average over the other nine years in the period is just under five victories.

A win early in the regular season brings an automatic Playoff berth and allows teams to alleviate a great deal of pressure. Victories during the Playoff rounds carry advancement and provide opportunities for teams to try different set-ups or nuances to their cars to improve performance. The bottom line is that drivers capable of multiple win seasons while not a lock are still the best bets for winning the title.

Consistency

Equally important is staying and finishing near the front of the field on a regular basis. Points are distributed to the top 10 finishes at the end of the two stages inside a race that leads up to the final leg to the checkered flag. Racking up those valuable markers is a vital safety net for drivers who don’t win.

Six of the last ten champions had put more than 20 top-10 finishes in the books with high water marks in 2017 and 2018 when Martin Truex Jr. and Logano scored 26 each year.

Every position on the track counts for a point, and what might seem like a meaningless eleventh-place finish in June could come back to haunt a driver later on in the Playoff picture. Tony Stewart’s 2011 championship over Carl Edwards came on a tiebreaker because the duo was tied in the point standings. However, Stewart had more wins than Edwards, which was the deciding factor. But had Edwards just garnered one additional position and/or point during the season, he would have won the crown.

Durability

There’s an old adage in racing that “to finish first, you must first finish.” A driver with multiple DNFs (did not finish) marks next to his name will most often not be someone in championship contention.

While mechanical failures are rarer than ever in today’s NASCAR because of engine reliability and the resilience in cars’ construction, there are still ways not to finish a race. Accidents top the list, which is not always the fault of a driver who is eliminated from competition. However, the ability to make good decisions and stay out of situations that could easily turn into contact and lead to a wreck is paramount.

Betting on veterans and their wealth of experience is a vital element in this department. The propensity for accidents over the last ten seasons has come at various ends of the schedule spectrum: the three shortest tracks on the slate (Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond) and the two largest (Daytona and Talladega).

The tight quarters of short-track racing produce much closer racing and increased potential for contact and damage. Conversely, the high-speed restrictor plate racing on the two mammoth speedways are breeding grounds for what’s known as “The Big One,” a multi-car accident that breaks out when one driver breaks loose and triggers a chain reaction wreck of cars racing in close proximity to one another.

Drivers with high average finishes at both disciplines of tracks are better positioned to remain in the championship chase. For instance, 2015 champion Kevin Harvick has a career average finish of 13.21 at Bristol and 15.47 at Talladega, both of which place him in the top five over the last ten seasons.