U.S. Presidential Election Odds: Trump the betting favourite, but there's a long way to go

Article By Mark Keast

Last Updated: 2024 Apr 1

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U.S. Presidential Election Odds: Trump the betting favourite, but there's a long way to go

In Canada, we have our own election issues: A Liberal prime minister, Justin Trudeau, intensely unpopular among huge blocks of the population, the head of a minority government being propped up in Parliamentary voting via a deal they did with the federal New Democratic Party.

The next election isn’t on the calendar until October 2025, so Trudeau, with the NDP’s support, still has a lot of time to implement policies, like the carbon tax, which goes into effect today in Canada.

But Canadians are political beasts, and it’s not just in this country where we’re focusing our attention. The campaign for U.S. president, with the election to be held on Nov. 5, is ramping up in intensity. It’s the ultimate reality show for people north of the border.

Former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden are travelling the country, holding events, and raising money. Biden was on stage with former Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton last week in NYC, with an event at Radio City Music Hall that raised north of $25 million. Trump that day went to the wake of a NYC police officer killed in the line of duty, and the optics of both those happenings is the source of a lot of debate and chatter this morning.

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Is the African American and Latino vote heading more the Republican’s way, compared to elections past, which would tilt the election in Trump’s favour if true? The Democrats are raising more money than the Republicans, which means more ad spending for them, attacks ads on Trump, and efforts to get more people out to vote, but is too late for that, on the backs of a southern border that’s been smashed to pieces, continued high inflation, out-of-control crime in big cities across the country, and other unpopular policies?

Sportsbooks are jumping all over this since the election is believed to be the most pivotal in decades, offering markets.

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At BetMGM Trump is the betting online favourite this morning, at 1.90. followed by Biden at 2.50. Former First Lady Michelle Obama is at 17.00, then Gavin Newsom (29.00), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (29.00), Kamala Harris (41.00), Nikki Haley (67.00), Gretchen Whitmer (67.00), Dwayne Johnson (101.00), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (201.00), Amy Klobuchar (201.00), and Pete Buttigieg (201.00).

At DraftKings, same deal: Trump 1.83, Biden 2.65, Obama 17.00, Newsom 21.00, Kennedy 26.00, Harris 26.00, Haley 66.00, Whitmer 81.00, Dean Phillips 101.00, Elizabeth Warren 101.00.

FanDuel has it a little tighter: Trump odds at 1.91, Biden, at 2.40. A spokesperson from FanDuel said currently just over half the handle is on Trump.

And this from BetMGM: 15.0% of tickets and 30.6% of handle are on the Trump, 5.2% of tickets and 10.6% of handle are on Biden (97% of the bets came before Trump clinched the Republican nomination March 12).

Stay tuned!

By the way, Dwayne Johnson, AKA The Rock? Who’s next, Hulk Hogan?