Which NFL Teams Were Best Against the Spread Last Year?
They say history is a good predictor of the future. While a lot changes in the NFL from year-to-year, it's important to remember what happened in the previous year to learn from it when it comes to NFL betting.
So let's take a look at the best NFL bets from last season, specifically into the five teams with the best ATS record. Perhaps taking a walk down memory lane can help us examine the characteristics of what teams might be good bets in the upcoming season.
These five teams were the most profitable against the spread from last season.
Miami Dolphins | 2020 ATS Record 11-5
Coming in with the best ATS Record for the 2020-21 season was Miami, who ended up placing second in the AFC East following a huge loss to the Buffalo Bills in week 17. They finished the season 10-6 overall, with 404 points, a record total in franchise history. Despite not earning a playoff berth, the season was considered to be successful, especially for sports bettors who backed Miami against the spread.
What does this mean for 2021-22? We aren't eager to jump off the Miami money train anytime soon - we still consider the Dolphins to be a profitable ATS team.
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Buffalo Bills | 2020 ATS Record 11-5
Buffalo Bills fans are coming off one of the best seasons the franchise has had in decades finishing with a 13-3 record. The Bills secured their first AFC East title since 1995 and made it to the first AFC Championship since 1993 – while they lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, the season wasn't a total wash. The 2020 season had the Bills tied with the Dolphins as the most profitable team against the spread, which worked out to be a 68.8% ATS percentage.
We expect the momentum will continue in the 2021-22 season behind Josh Allen (with a fresh new contract) and an explosive offensive line that includes Stefon Diggs.
Green Bay Packers | 2020 ATS Record 10-6
The Green Bay Packers finished the 2020 season with a very similar record to the Bills, but the Bills edged them out against the spread and that's why they're in our third spot. They finished the season 10-6 against the spread, and we're all a little apprehensive whether they can pull that off again this season. With all the drama surrounding Aaron Rodgers demanding a trade, we are questioning if the team will suffer due to the atmosphere and conflict for the upcoming season.
Baltimore Ravens | 2020 ATS Record 10-6
The 2020-2021 Baltimore Ravens had their ups and downs, and at least two of those ups included 30+ point blowouts against Cleveland and Cincinnati. The Ravens finished the regular season 10-6 against the spread, which is a three-way tie with the Packers and Steelers. The Ravens fell to the Bills in the Divisional Playoff round after working their way past the Titans in the Wild Card.
Baltimore could be a major contender in the AFC North this season, despite three running backs being injured before the season even begins. Filling those gaps will be tough, but we still believe that the Ravens have a solid chance of being a profitable ATS team yet again.
Pittsburgh Steelers | ATS Record 10-6
Finally, our last profitable team of 2020 was the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is truly our biggest wild card team of having a repeat year as a profitable ATS team, as we simply aren't sure what to expect from the 2021-22 Steelers. The previous year's team finished with a 12-4 overall record and made the playoffs, and Ben Roethlisberger had a less-than-ideal season and dealt with a shoulder injury in the off-season. However, 10-6 against the spread is nothing to complain about for sports bettors, as they turned out to be one of the most profitable teams last season.
Can they do it again?
Also Check Out: The NFL odds explained by our experts.
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