Irish General Election Date Odds Split Between 2024 and 2025
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Betting sites believe there is a 50/50 chance taoiseach Leo Varadkar will call a snap election before 2025 and send voters to the polls in what will be a monumental Irish general election.
Varadkar currently heads a coalition government of his own Fine Gael party alongside Fianna Fáil and the Greens.
The three-party bloc successfully prevented Sinn Féin from coming to power during the 2020 snap election.
Ireland’s legal framework dictates that the taoiseach must instruct the president to dissolve the Dáil no later than February 2025, ahead of a March election that year.
However, it looks increasingly likely that Varadkar and his coalition partners will agree to a snap poll, potentially next summer, instead.
Bookies have been keeping a keen eye on the goings on in the Dáil and have recently shifted their odds again, suggesting a 2024 poll is on the cards.
Irish Election Date Odds
According to betting apps, the Irish election odds have levelled out at Evens for both 2024 and 2025. If Varadkar decides to hold on to power and keeps his coalition partners on side then March 2025 is still possible.
However, coalitions rarely end well – especially when an election is looming – and it’s likely that cracks in the government will begin to appear as early as next spring.
The bookies had been tentatively offering shorter odds on a 2025 vote but that price has now levelled out with 2024. The odds of a 2023 Irish election have, understandably, widened to 8/1.
While the politics betting odds expose a trend that seems to favour a 2024 date, the latest Irish election polls suggest we could be in for a full five-year parliament.
Sinn Fein’s popularity, which has soared since the last election, dipped in May as Fine Gael enjoyed a bump.
However, the trend is set in. Sinn Fein are polling around 35%, compared to 19% for Fine Gael and 17% for Fianna Fáil.
Combined, the two biggest parties currently in government may not have enough support to prevent Sinn Fein from taking power.
These poll numbers could convince Varadkar and his cabinet to steer clear of a summer 2024 election and instead push the term to its limit in the hope of gaining support over time.
Who Will Win The Irish Election?
Indeed, this might be both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s best bets of remaining in power.
Sinn Fein are motoring away with record-high poll numbers and the bookies have taken note.
Right now William Hill are offering a price of 1/3 on Mary Lou McDonald being the next taoiseach. That’s a big comedown from the 6/5 price offered back in April 2021.
McDonald has made the case for Sinn Fein to be in government and the boost in support for the party in Northern Ireland has only strengthened that cause.
However, Varadkar is still a 4/1 outsider to be taoiseach after the next election, while Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney, who had the job for 18 months, is 7/1.
Interestingly, the odds of Irish unification have not been affected by the recent poll changes.
Bookies still think there’s only a 7.7% chance of a United Ireland referendum being held before 2027.
How The Irish Election Works
Ireland elects a new Dáil every five years, or sooner if a snap election is called.
There are 43 constituencies voting at the next election, with 174 seats up for grabs.
Ireland uses a proportional representation vote system, where constituents list in order their preferred choice.
Depending on how many seats are available in a constituency, a candidate will need between 16.7% and 25% of the vote share to earn a place in the Dáil.
Ireland has a pretty robust election system that means the winners of general elections are usually known by the following day.
In 2020, however, three parties earned between 38 and 35 seats, making a single-party majority impossible.
Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens formed a coalition to keep Sinn Féin in opposition. As part of the agreement, Martin was to hand over the role of taoiseach to Varadkar midway through the parliament.
It’s likely that the next Irish election will lead to another result where no single party has a majority.
In this instance, parties will need to negotiate with each other to form a working coalition.
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