South Africa v India Second ODI: Latest Odds & Analysis

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South Africa v India Second ODI: Latest Odds & Analysis

South Africa v India predictions: 

When: Tuesday 19 December, 4:30pm IST 

Where: St George’s Park, Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth)

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar (Supersport in South Africa)

Best Odds: South Africa 2.2, India 1.66

India embarrassed South Africa during the annual Pink ODI in Johannesburg to record their fourth consecutive win over the Proteas in this format, and boy did they do it in style!

Just two days after South Africa recorded not only their lowest ever score in a home ODI but their biggest loss by balls remaining (200!), the teams move to the coastal city of Gqeberha (formerly Port Elizabeth) for its first ODI since February 2018.

India were the last touring team to visit for an ODI and they came out on top by 73 runs, albeit with only three Indian squad members (Shreyas Iyer, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal) and just five South Africans (Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Phehlukwayo, Shamsi) in contention to shape up for this one.


The Numbers That Matter

  • Five of the last six ODIs in Gqeberha had successful run chases
  • Seven of the eight teams to score 270+ batting first here were winners
  • Kuldeep Yadav to Aiden Markram in ODIs: 3-16
  • David Miller has five 50s from 11 home innings this year

Success starts at the top

It doesn’t seem to matter who they field throughout 2023, but India’s opening bowlers have a knack of picking early wickets against all opposition, throughout the recent World Cup and beyond.

Not for the first time on this tour, it was Arshdeep Singh who grabbed the first headlines when he removed the classy pair of Reeza Hendricks and Rassie van der Dussen in successive balls on Sunday. Followers of this blog would have been especially happy with the second wicket!

As it stands, India have taken their first wicket for the price of less than 20 runs in six of their last eight ODIs, whilst in the third T20I Mukesh Kumar - who was wicketless on Sunday - grabbed the first wicket of the game in just the second over.

South Africa, on the other hand, have conceded 20+ run opening partnerships in eight of their last ten games in this format, whilst they’ve got a makeshift opener (Tony de Zorsi) who has recorded three scores in the 20s in his three ODIs

The tourists have got the class both with bat and ball to get the team off to the right start once again, irrespective of what happens from there.

Prediction: India highest opening partnership - 1.72 @ Parimatch

‘Klassy’ Kuldeep restores former glory

It seems like the 2023 Asia Cup, where Indian leg-spinner Kuldeep Yadav took nine wickets in the space of two ODIs against Pakistan and Sri Lanka, was now years ago.

He has been comparatively quiet since then, taking no more than two wickets in a game on 14 occasions including across the entirety of the World Cup. 

But despite that, he has collected exactly two wickets in 50% of those games, so you’re getting true odds if you can still get odds of 2.00 (“even money”) based on that record.

It’s expected that he’ll get more than 2.3 overs on this occasion on the basis that South Africa won’t be putting in a second consecutive dreadful batting performance, especially having won 63% of home ODIs since the start of 2022.

This coming occasion, Kuldeep will return to the venue where he grabbed a match-best four wickets in India’s last ODI in Gqeberha - which was almost six years ago! 

Prediction: Kuldeep Yadav over 1.5 wickets - 2.00 @ Parimatch

All-Round Aiden back at his SA20 home

Aiden Markram’s performance in this match is one that will particularly interest us, given he has ample experience at St George’s Park as the captain of SA20 franchise Sunrisers Eastern Cape.

His most recent outing in Gqeberha was of course in the second T20I against India, where he picked up 50 ‘player performance’ points (30 runs and 20 points for the wicket of Jitesh Sharma).

He collected five wickets at St George’s across the 2023 SA20 season at an average of less than 15, and if India are in a position to bat the full 50 overs or close to, he too like Kuldeep will get more overs and more opportunities for some wickets.

If he can reclaim his best form of 2023, which was lost in the second half of the World Cup, he may not even need wickets to clear 42+ points, given he is averaging 45 runs per innings in 2023 ODIs regardless of whether or not he was dismissed or not out.

Prediction: Aiden Markram over 41.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Parimatch

Updated by GDC - Icon - Black - Info

Aaron Murphy

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