T20 World Cup Final: Latest Odds & Analysis

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T20 World Cup Final: Latest Odds & Analysis

India v South Africa predictions: 

When: Saturday 29 June, 8:00pm IST

Where: Kensington Oval, Bridgetown (Barbados)

Watch: Star Sports and Disney+ Hotstar

Best Odds: India 1.52, South Africa 2.63

A new format has produced a new pair of finalists and, despite the organisers provoking many discussions and debates about the fairness and integrity of the scheduling and predetermination of the Super 8s and semi-finals matches, the tournament still appears to have produced the fairest final.

India and South Africa are the only two sides to have gone through the 2024 T20 World Cup unbeaten and therefore one of the duo will become the first team in the history of the tournament to lift the trophy with an undefeated record.

But most importantly, one team will be exorcising their trophy cause that has plagued their respective nations: India have not won a major ICC event for 13 years, whilst this is South Africa’s first ever final in any World Cup after seven semi-final defeats. 

It’s bound to be one of the busiest days of the sporting calendar for Indian betting sites. Followers of our T20 World Cup predictions blog have come out on top on almost every occasion throughout this tournament, so let’s hope we can finish this momentous month on a high! 

The Numbers That Matter

  • India scored the most powerplay runs six times at this T20 World Cup
  • Both India and SA took 6+ wickets in every bowling innings of this tournament
  • The average 2024 T20WC run rate in Barbados is 7.78rpo (9.06rpo for Test playing nations)
  • Rohit Sharma and Quinton de Kock top scored for their teams three times each

The drought is over… but for who?

Whereas South Africa have had to lift themselves up off the canvas and stumble over the line on several occasions, including against the Netherlands, Nepal and USA, India has barely been challenged throughout this T20 World Cup.

They comfortably accounted for both England and Australia, who joined India as the three teams most favoured by cricket betting sites to win this tournament at the start of the month. 

They have almost ‘ticked all the boxes’ so to speak, with four different batters top scoring in a match (Rohit, Rishabh, Hardik and SKY), four bowlers returning the best figures (Bumrah, Arshdeep, Kuldeep and Hardik), whilst their last five games all produced different Player of the Match recipients. 

They have also overcome the adversity of being sent in to bat in each of their last three games and that appears to have suited them well, with their last four innings all seeing 170+ scores.

Whilst South Africa’s ability to pull themselves out of the fire could serve them well in the final, it’s unlikely that India would allow them out of any difficult positions. 

They’ve often found themselves struggling to get off to a good start with the bat, losing 2+ powerplay wickets in three of their five matches against full member opponents, whilst more than half of their 15 powerplay wickets came on seam bowling paradises against Afghanistan and the Netherlands. 

Having already avenged their famous World Cup losses to England (T20 2022) and Australia (ODI 2023) late in this tournament, they appear unimpeded by recent troubles and on the road to new glory.

Prediction: India to win - 1.5 @ 22Bet Sports

Six Proteas bowlers that SKY knows and loves

Owing to his several IPL campaigns and three years in the India T20I setup, few batters are as intimately familiar with their upcoming opponents for this final as Suryakumar Yadav.

The two longer formats of the game haven’t worked out for him, and he probably won’t be reclaiming the number three spot anytime soon given Rishabh Pant’s success in the role, but returning back to his more familiar number four role has been the bedrock of his success.

‘SKY’ has been one of their most consistent performers at this World Cup, even being one of the very few players in the competition to get on top of the tricky New York surfaces to clear 30+ runs in four of his last five games of the tournament.

He was the standout player of his only two bilateral T20I series against South Africa, recording scores of 50*, 61 and 8 at home and then 56 and 100 away in December 2023, either side of 68 against the Proteas in Perth at the last World Cup.

Combining that and his IPL history, SKY has accumulated 337 runs at an average of nearly 50 against South Africa’s six likely bowlers for this match, and this fresh Bridgetown pitch should be more to his liking.

The only thing against him is a propensity to bat poorly in grand finals, with his five scores from five IPL finals below the 26.5 run mark set by cricket betting apps (24), but we’ll be hoping his 47 in the semi-final steers him away from those failures. 

Prediction: Suryakumar Yadav 30+ runs - 1.9 @ 22Bet Sports

Markram has experience in T20 finals

South Africa may not have played any finals in a World Cup of either format but this will be captain Aiden Markram’s third major final this calendar year alone.

Back in February, his 42 not out helped his side Sunrisers Eastern Cape to a 200+ score that was more than enough to lift the SA20 trophy for the first time. 

Three months later in the IPL there was no team success as Sunrisers Hyderabad were steamrolled by Kolkata Knight Riders in the final, but Markram was the second-top scorer with 20 runs in a meagre total of 113. 

Markram now knows how to win and to lose a T20 final and should be able to draw upon that experience to build upon his average of 29 against India’s last six bowlers.

He hasn’t had the best T20 World Cup with the bat by any stretch of the imagination, but must have gained an enormous psychological boost from getting through the run chase against Afghanistan on a very difficult batting pitch. 

In some of the most batting-friendly conditions the Caribbean can offer, we’re anticipating him to perform above average here. 

Prediction: Aiden Markram over 23.5 runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports

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