Ballon d’Or Odds: Yamal And Mbappe Lead As Trophy Race Takes Shape
The Ballon d’Or betting market is beginning to take shape as Europe’s biggest competitions enter their decisive stages.
Kylian Mbappe currently tops the odds on most betting sites, but he is facing serious competition from Barcelona’s teenage sensation Lamine Yamal.
With domestic title races tightening and the Champions League knockout rounds approaching, individual performances are increasingly being judged alongside team success.
History suggests Ballon d’Or voters prioritise players who deliver decisive moments on the biggest stages, placing added importance on silverware over the coming months.
While forwards dominate the top of the market, midfielders and creators remain firmly in contention.
As things stand, the race looks finely balanced, and below we look at the main contenders for the coveted prize.
Ballon d'Or 2025 Odds:
Player | Club | Odds | Betting Site |
Kylian Mbappe | Real Madrid | 9/4 | |
Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | 10/3 | |
Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | 5/1 | |
Erling Haaland | Man City | 11/2 | |
Declan Rice | Arsenal | 10/1 | |
Raphinha | Barcelona | 20/1 | |
Vitinha | PSG | 25/1 | |
Michael Olise | Bayern Munich | 33/1 | |
Lionel Messi | Inter Miami | 40/1 | |
Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | 40/1 | |
Pedri | Barcelona | 40/1 |
Mbappe's Year?
Mbappe sits at the head of the market at 9/4 on most betting apps, as he combines headline-grabbing performances with realistic trophy prospects.
Despite the recent sacking of Xabi Alonso, Real Madrid remain well placed in both La Liga and the Champions League, competitions that traditionally carry significant weight in Ballon d’Or voting.
He has delivered consistently in high-profile fixtures, strengthening his case for a first Ballon d'Or.
If Madrid win major silverware, and France go deep in the World Cup, Mbappe's position at the top of the betting will look fully justified.
Youngster Yamal Well Placed
Yamal’s odds of 10/3 with William Hill reflect the teenager's mature performances at club and international level.
Despite his age, he has become a decisive attacking presence for Barcelona in domestic and European matches.
Barcelona’s continued push for trophies and Spain's status as favourites for this summer's World Cup significantly enhance his Ballon d’Or chances.
A major title, combined with his growing influence, would put Yamal firmly at the forefront of the race.
Prolific Kane Staking Claim
Harry Kane (5/1) continues to produce extraordinary goal returns for Bayern Munich, reinforcing his status as one of the game’s most reliable scorers.
However, Ballon d’Or history suggests numbers alone are rarely enough.
Bayern’s Champions League performance is likely to define how seriously his candidacy is taken.
Without European success, and if England struggle in the World Cup, Kane may find it difficult to force his way to the very top of the market.
Champions League Odds
Guaranteed Goals Give Haaland A Chance
Erling Haaland’s scoring output remains relentless, keeping him firmly among the leading contenders.
Manchester City’s overall season, rather than individual matches, will shape his Ballon d’Or prospects.
A defining Champions League run would significantly strengthen Haaland’s position in the betting.
The big Norwegian will lead the line for his country at the World Cup and is currently 11/2 in the Ballon d'Or betting market.
Rice Leading Midfield Contender
Declan Rice is the shortest-priced midfielder in the market, reflecting his importance to Arsenal’s title challenge.
The Gunners' position in the Premier League race gives Rice a credible pathway into Ballon d’Or contention.
While midfielders often face an uphill battle in voting, leadership and consistency are key factors.
A domestic title or cup success would see Rice's price of 10/1 shorten significantly.
Raphinha And Vitinha Have Momentum
Raphinha (20/1) and Vitinha (25/1) stand out among the longer-priced contenders due to their roles in teams still competing for major honours.
Raphinha has delivered important goals and assists for Barcelona, giving him a platform if they add further silverware.
Vitinha has become a key figure for PSG and Portugal, particularly in big competitions, where influence can be decisive.
While neither sits near the top of the market, strong finishes to the season could see their odds shorten.
Olise Among Outsiders
Michael Olise remains an interesting option at 33/1 thanks to his creativity and end product for Bayern Munich.
Lionel Messi, Bukayo Saka and Pedri are priced at 40/1, reflecting their quality but also the difficulty of their respective paths to winning.
Each would likely need an exceptional trophy-winning campaign to force their way into serious contention.
As the season develops, standout performances in decisive matches could yet reshape the betting picture.
Who do you think will win this season's Ballon d'Or? Let us know in the comments below, or vote in the poll above!
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