London Mayoral Odds Tip Sadiq Khan To Beat Any Conservative Candidate
UK bookmakers expect Sadiq Khan to win the 2024 London Mayoral election and reckon his closest Conservative rival has just a 3% chance of claiming victory in the capital.
Khan was elected Mayor of London in 2016 after voters turned against the Conservatives following Boris Johnson’s eight-year reign.
He then came through a trickier election in 2021, fending off Shaun Bailey and Sian Berry to keep the top job at the London Assembly.
Since then bookies have kept a historically low price on the incumbent winning again in 2024.
Khan has never been longer than Evens to win the next mayoral election, and his price has fallen to a record low in recent weeks.
There are two contributing factors to this. The first is that the Tories are yet to put up a candidate, and so voters considering who they may back have a choice between the continuity candidate and no-one.
The second is that Labour performed well at the 2023 local elections, while the Conservatives lost more than 1,000 council seats. London is a Labour-leaning city and would likely stay red if the current polls are replicated next summer.
In fact, so damning were those local election results that betting firms reckon Khan’s biggest challengers will come from within the Labour party itself, or via independents.
London Mayoral Election Odds
Political betting sites recently sunk Khan’s London Mayoral odds to 1/4, from 1/3. The nudge implies Khan has an 80% chance of winning the election, and comes in the wake of the local council results in May.
This puts him in a better position than when he was campaigning in 2016 and 2021.
But what’s particularly remarkable about this market is his competitors. The Tories have only just begun their process of picking a candidate, and appear to be struggling.
Duwayne Brooks, Samuel Kasumu, Susan Hall and Paul Scully could all have a stab at the job, but they lack the celebrity pull-factor many believe is required to topple Khan.
Rob Rinder and Karren Brady have been considered for the role but it wouldn't be a surprise if both politely declined.
After all, there’s a risk of having their political careers ruined by such a campaign – just ask Zac Goldsmith, the 2016 Tory pick.
Shaun Bailey is the best-priced Conservative figure tipped to run for the London mayor role, at 33/1. Ahead of him is a list of Labour figures – David Lammy, Dawn Butler and John McDonnell – who would all be a more realistic option were Khan to step aside.
Jeremy Corbyn is the 8/1 second favourite with Ladbrokes after losing the Labour whip. The Islington North MP could well split the left-wing vote here.
And another independent – ex-Conservative MP Rory Stewart – is reckoned to have a 6.7% chance of winning the mayoral election, at odds of 14/1.
He sought the job in 2020 but pulled out when the election was set back a year due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
How London Mayoral Election Works
Londoners vote for their mayor every four years. The 2024 mayoral election is due to take place on May 2. Not only do voters choose their next mayor, but they also elect members of the London Assembly.
It is a first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, which means whichever candidate gets the most votes in total wins.
This is a change from the previous system, where voters were given the chance to provide a second choice. Khan won in 2021 after earning 40% of the first round votes, and then 55.2% following the second round.
Diverting to FPTP has been criticised as it favours the bigger parties. Just like in the UK’s general elections, a candidate now needs to merely have more votes than anyone else – even if they don’t have a majority.
There was no referendum on whether Londoners wanted the change.
Khan will run as the Labour candidate, while Zoe Garbett is standing for the Greens.
It’s expected that the Green Party will earn more votes than the 197,000 picked up in 2021, which means Labour and the Conservatives will be fighting for fewer votes themselves.
The Tories plan to have their candidate in place by mid-July 2023. And unless they pick a star-studded name, they’re unlikely to affect the odds with betting apps that are leaning heavily on Khan.
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