Michael van Gerwen vs Michael Smith Tips: World Darts Final Odds And Predictions

Date IconLast Updated: 3 Jan 2023
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Michael van Gerwen vs Michael Smith Tips: World Darts Final Odds And Predictions
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Michael van Gerwen vs Michael Smith Predictions:

Michael van Gerwen will bid for a fourth PDC World Championship title when he takes on Michael Smith in Tuesday’s final at Alexandra Palace.

Betting sites have installed MVG as the heavy favourite following his demolition job on Dimitri Van den Bergh in the semi-finals.

The Green Machine dropped just four legs in that match, and he is confident in his ability to secure another commanding victory in the final.

“He is not going to stop me,” the Dutchman declared. “No one is going to stop me,” MVG declared. “I feel too good for that. I am playing out of my skin at the moment.”

However, Smith has won his last three matches against MVG, which could hand him a psychological advantage when they lock horns.

It promises to be an entertaining showdown between two in-form stars, and we have detailed our top tips below.

Back Over 10.5 Sets In This PDC World Final

Smith and van Gerwen have faced one another eight times in 2022, and they have generally been very tight contests.

MVG beat Bully Boy 6-2 in the Premier League back in March, and Smith won 8-4 when they met in the US Darts Masters final in June, but their other six matches were decided by a margin of just one or two legs.

These are the head-to-heads this year:

  • Michael Smith 8-4 Michael van Gerwen (US Darts Masters)
  • Michael Smith 6-4 Michael van Gerwen (Premier League)
  • Michael Smith 6-5 Michael van Gerwen (Premier League)
  • Michael Smith 5-6 Michael van Gerwen (Premier League)
  • Michael Smith 5-6 Michael van Gerwen (Premier League)
  • Michael Smith 5-6 Michael van Gerwen (Premier League)
  • Michael Smith 4-6 Michael van Gerwen (Premier League)
  • Michael Smith 2-6 Michael van Gerwen (Premier League)

In their seven Premier League matches prior to the US Darts Masters final, Smith and van Gerwen averaged 10.28 legs per match, which just shows you how tight games are between the pair.

Premier League matches follow a best of 11 legs format, while the PDC World Championship final is a best of 13 sets affair, so backing over 10.5 sets looks very appealing.

Both men are in fine form right now, so it is hard to see either of them losing 7-3, 7-2, 7-1 or 7-0 in the final.

It did finish 7-3 to van Gerwen when they met in the 2019 final, but Smith has improved over the past four years, and he should be a lot more competitive this time around.

Tip: Over 10.5 Sets - 11/10 With Paddy Power

Can Smith Clinch A Famous Upset?

Most darts betting sites make van Gerwen the 3/10 favourite to win this match following his superb run of results.

That is understandable when you consider that he thrashed Chris Dobey 5-0 in the quarter-finals and Van den Bergh 6-0 in the semis.

Dobey could only win three legs, while Van den Bergh took just four after The Green Machine averaged 108.28 against his Belgian rival.

MVG has destroyed everyone in his path, and he has averaged over 100 in all five matches at the tournament thus far.

He is certainly in scintillating form right now, but a clash with Bully Boy represents a far sterner test for van Gerwen. 

Smith secured his first PDC major title when he won the 2022 Grand Slam of Darts, and he made short work of MVG in the US Darts Masters final.

He made a sluggish start to his semi-final against Gabriel Clemens, but Bully Boy displayed all the hallmarks of a champion to wrap up a convincing 6-2 win.

Smith averaged 101.85 in that match, with 19 maximums, five 100-plus finishes and a magnificent 161.

He is the 5/2 underdog with William Hill for this match, which could represent great value, but giving him a +2.5 sets handicap looks more appealing.

If he does lose, it is unlikely to be by more than a couple of sets when you consider how close the head-to-heads have been this year.

Tip: Michael Smith +2.5 Sets - Evens With Ladbrokes

Punt On Over 30.5 180s In The World Darts Final

This could develop into a long, drawn-out final between two superstars that will be keen to put on a show for the fans at Ally Pally.

Both men will need to raise their game to clinch victory, so we can look forward to some high-quality darts, making over 30.5 180s look like an attractive option.

Smith has averaged 0.34 180s per leg so far, while MVG has averaged 0.33 180s per leg.

Fans have come to expect lots of 180s from Smith, and he is the 1/2 favourite with Bet365 to record the most 180s in this match.

However, it is also easy to see MVG going over 14.5 maximums, so over 30.5 in total appeals as a tidy bet.

Tip: Over 30.5 180s - 4/5 With Betfair