US Presidential Election Odds: Market Underestimating A Kamala Comeback
It is fair to say that the 2028 US presidential election is nowhere near a top priority for most bettors and oddsmakers yet, and that is good news for the few paying close attention.
For this market - historically the biggest in the world - is one where playing the long game, taking value prices on betting sites ahead of the crowd, pays big dividends.
Democrats Have Become Clear Favourites
First, the backdrop. In light of Donald Trump’s terrible approval ratings, his Republican Party trailing in the congressional ballot and being on course for a drubbing in November’s midterms, the Democrats are clear favourites at 4/6 (Virginbet) to regain the presidency in 2028.
This recent TPSI poll vindicates those odds.
Given that clear opportunity, expect a crowded field to assemble in the Democratic primary next year.
When this primary was last open, 20 different candidates lined up for the opening TV debate.
Name Recognition Offers A Huge Advantage
That may sound like a wide-open race, but in reality, it offers a huge advantage to the best-known candidates.
Speaking time per candidate is minimal, and it is extremely hard to cut through. The end result was a duel between the two oldest and best-known - Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Polls are already arriving thick and fast, including 15 since the beginning of May, and they are consistently producing a clear leader.
Kamala Harris leads by an average ranging from 7.6% to 12.8%, according to four poll aggregators.
In a separate survey on the most popular politicians in America, the losing 2024 candidate also fares pretty well.
Of course, it is very early days, and other Democrats have greater scope to improve.
Whereas only 7% don’t have an opinion about Harris, 55% don’t about Jon Ossoff - highlighted on these pages at 25/1 for the nomination last year, now into 15/2 (Virginbet).
Nevertheless, Harris’s numbers deserve less than 33/1 (Betfred) for the presidency, and her case is even stronger when deeper questions are considered.
Nobody Is Better Placed For The Essential Fast Start
First, consider how primaries pan out, where a fast start is essential.
After the first three or four primaries, non-competitive candidates will drop out. Only the best-positioned, most-recognised and best-funded candidates survive.
The Democrats haven’t yet confirmed their schedule, but South Carolina went first in 2024 and is sure to be among the first three.
As the first black vice president, Harris would start as a very short-odds favourite to win a state where black voters (especially females) tend to prove decisive in Democratic primaries.
Win here, and Harris would be top two in their race for sure.
Strong Indications That Harris Is Preparing A Bid
Second, we must ask whether she will run again. All the evidence points that way.
She turned down an opportunity to run for California governor, which would likely have produced an easy win.
Her speaking schedule has smacked of another presidential run, as does this new Axios story.
Harris is entitled to think she deserves a chance to run on her own merits, rather than as the rushed replacement for Joe Biden, forced to effectively run on his record.
Rightly or not, many believe it was Biden’s inability to curb Israeli aggression in Gaza that wrecked the Democratic coalition and enabled Trump to win states such as Michigan.
Israel/Palestine is arguably the biggest single factor in the ongoing Democratic primaries for the midterms.
When Harris first ran poorly in 2020, she was seen as a progressive.
If that is indeed the route to the nomination, she will reposition herself and, in doing so, could well eclipse would-be left candidates such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
To reiterate, this race is a marathon. Various candidates can and will rise and fall over the next 28 months.
However, if Harris merely confirms her candidacy, the 33/1 odds available with most betting apps will crash.
If one year from now, she is still clearly top of the Democrat polls, she will not be available anywhere near double-figure odds for the presidency.
During her term as VP, Harris was available at huge odds, right up until a few hours after Biden’s withdrawal.
She was underestimated in the betting until she was overestimated, right at the end.
History may well repeat itself.
Recommended Bet
Kamala Harris to win the 2028 US Presidential Election @ 33/1 (Virginbet, Livescorebet)
* Odds correct at time of publication.
