US Presidential Election Odds: Ossoff Raises His Game
President Trump's approval rating has sunk to new, record lows - a dismal 33% with Reuters. Nate Silver's new prediction model rated them favourites to win both the House and Senate.
If betting markets are your preferred estimate, the Democrats have edged very slightly ahead for the (much closer) Senate race, with StarSports the only firm now offering the highest quote of 10/11.
Senate Probability Chart
Democrats | 51% |
Republicans | 49% |
Midterm Success Will Elevate 2028 Contenders
Thinking beyond that betting bonanza, the results will have deep implications for the 2028 presidential election - especially the Democratic nomination. Their best performers in November are bound to soar on those markets.
One in particular is beginning to really cut through. Jon Ossoff is bidding for a second term as Georgia Senator, and regarded overwhelmingly likely to do so at odds of just 1/12. A double-digit victory feels plausible.
Anything around that scale, in a swing state which has only voted Democrat once since 1992 (and by just 0.23% on that occasion), will send a chill down Republican spines.
The youngest incumbent Senator, 39 year-old Ossoff has been rising up the 2028 markets ever since we shortlisted him on these pages in July 2025, at 25/1 for the nomination. He's now a mere 4/1 chance on betting sites.
Ossoff Is Having His Breakthrough Moment
His approvals are tremendous but based on relatively low name recognition, compared to his main rivals in that market. As I write, that situation is being transformed.
Ossoff: While the sailors on the Lincoln fight his war, while he fruitlessly drains our munitions and oil reserves, the president sleeps through his meetings. He golfs and trades stocks. So he doesn’t want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on… pic.twitter.com/6KqephHAd3
— Acyn (@Acyn) August 16, 2026
Ossoff's campaign rally in Atlanta has gone viral, and placed him at the centre of America's political conversation. Why? It was an excellent speech and wide-ranging attack on Trump, the war in Iran, and corruption.
But one line was the gamechanger. He went where others hadn't dared to go and mentioned Trump 'travelling with Natalie'.
Natalie Harp Is Now The Biggest Story
This refers to Natalie Harp, described by one of Trump's aides as his 'binky'. Multiple credible reports had already claimed she rarely leaves his side, writes his social media posts, and had become his gatekeeper and “instant enabler of his impulses”.
The book “Regime Change” claimed she left him messages such as “You are all that matters to me” and “I want to bring you joy”. Her own brother described the relationship as unhealthy. Now we learn she was among a handful of selected aides alongside Trump on a secret plane used when Air Force One was allegedly the target of an Iranian assassination plot.
This was not news to the most avid Trump news junkies. However a timid media, perhaps fearing retribution, had been tiptoeing around this obviously newsworthy story.
Ossoff's comments - one line in a long speech - and the panicked over-reaction of Trump’s allies, has given them licence to embrace it. This is masterful PR strategy. Many more multiples of voters are aware who Ossoff is and are hearing his message.
Jon Ossoff knew exactly what he was doing by invoking President Trump’s “travel with Natalie” the other day.
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) August 19, 2026
Google searches for Trump’s executive assistant Natalie Harp spiked by 5,000%. News outlets hurried to meet the demand for info... https://t.co/Hzr8iMqF0q
AOC Also Challenging Newsom For Favouritism
The other forward Democratic mover has been Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez. Widely seen as the heir to Bernie Sanders, the success of other socialist candidates in the primaries left many of the view that this is the inevitable direction of the party. Much of the party establishment is now embracing her too. Many betting apps have her as co-favourite alongside one-time clear market leader, Gavin Newsom.
Caution is advised here. It remains to be seen how socialist candidates will fare in November. The party is far from united behind them and were they to underperform, it will reflect badly on AOC.
A left-wing, Latino woman remains a risky choice, however strong her brand or socials are. Another takeaway from the primaries has been that Democrats are ultra-motived and determined to win, as David Crowley's huge upset win over socialist Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin Governor primary illustrated.
