Who Will Win The 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Gavin Newsom is the narrow frontrunner to win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro, according to betting sites.
The Democrats are still soul searching following their 2024 US election defeat to Donald Trump’s Republicans, which also saw the Dems surrender majorities in the House and Senate.
With Trump shaping America to his image, Democrat lawmakers have very little power right now.
The party appears rudderless, with key figures seemingly waiting for direction to take on Trump’s MAGA machine.
Millions without healthcare and food assistance.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) July 9, 2025
Trillions added to the national debt.
All to fund tax cuts for billionaires that weren’t even asking for them.
Donald Trump’s bill is a betrayal to the American people. pic.twitter.com/VLu7gkPOxt
The likes of Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom have been critical of Trump – but that’s not what will earn them Democrat votes in the 2028 primaries.
Instead, rather than go after Trump, the Democratic presidential nominee needs to provide a strong, unifying vision for America post-2028.
This is the test for all candidates seeking to contest the Democratic primaries – and it’s what bookmakers are considering when weighing up their odds.
Democratic Presidential Odds
Political betting sites are yet to offer odds on who will secure the party nomination, but they have worked out who is most likely to be the next US president.
California governor Newsom is the current favourite to become president from among the Democratic candidates.
Betfred has him at 10/1 to win the 2028 US election – odds that carry a 9.1% likelihood.
Ocasio-Cortez comes a close second at 12/1, while Buttigieg and Shapiro can be backed at 14/1.
None of them come close to JD Vance’s 5/2 odds of being the next president, while Trump himself is 10/1 with William Hill to force an unprecedented third term, which he would need a constitutional amendment to earn.
Who Will Be The Democratic Nominee?
The reason betting apps have placed huge odds on each Democratic candidate right now is because there is no knowing who will emerge from the pack.
The Republican party is almost certainly going to nominate Vance to run in 2028, which is why his odds are so short.
The markets are waiting for a Democrat to step forward and effectively take on Vance. That won’t happen for three years – but the odds will continue to fluctuate until then.
Here are the top four Democratic presidential candidates, according to the odds:
Gavin Newsom
It’s no secret that Newsom has his eyes on the 2028 US presidential election. The California governor is already out there, fundraising and getting his name in the mouths of voters.
Kamala Harris struggled to connect with Rust Belt voters, who deemed her to be part of the Californian elite. Newsom is aware of this and is trying to shed that image.
He has also been highly critical of Trump, which gets his name in the news.
The recent ICE raids on migrants in Los Angeles and wildfires that spread across California in the spring resulted in a sparring match between Newsom and the president.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
This wouldn’t be the Democratic primaries without a left-leaning candidate in the mix.
Ocasio-Cortez is loathed by the right as much as she is loved by the left.
The New Yorker is one of the most proactive, erudite and persuasive figureheads at the top of the Democratic party.
Granted, she is much closer to Bernie Sanders than Newsom, Harris or Joe Biden, but she has enormous pulling power with young voters.
AOC is 35 and could enter the Democratic primaries as a means of securing a top job in someone else’s cabinet come 2029. However, she could also easily win the party nomination.
She has brushed aside speculation for now but the latest politics odds and polls suggest she would fare well if she went for the presidency.
Pete Buttigieg
Buttigieg confirmed in May that he is considering running for president. That’s a little more transparent than other tipped candidates and could give Buttigieg an edge.
The former transportation secretary always fared well with voters during media appearances.
He is a relatively centrist Democrat more likely to attract undecided voters who are sick of America’s combative politics.
However, Buttigieg doesn’t have the financial muscle of Newsom or Shapiro. He would have to work hard to match them for attention during the primaries.
That won’t be easy but Buttigieg has an ace up his sleeve: he’s really good at attacking Trump.
Few Democrats are able to articulate arguments that sensibly dismantle Trump’s policies like Buttigieg.
Voters tend to switch off when Democrats start shouting at their opponents.
Buttigieg is calm and reasoned in his deliverance – and that could make a big difference with voters during a presidential campaign and debates.
Josh Shapiro
Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro suffered the humiliation of seeing his state flip red in the 2024 US election.
However, he is not quitting the state just yet.
Shapiro is running for Pennsylvania governor again at the 2026 midterms, and should win as the Republicans struggle to find a suitable candidate.
Pennsylvania doesn’t require officials to resign in order to run for higher office, so Shapiro can maintain his job as governor while also gunning for the presidency.
He did this successfully when working as attorney general during his 2023 gubernatorial campaign.
Shapiro represents a critical swing state, which gives him weight in the Democratic primaries.
He was also a finalist to be Harris’ running mate in 2024. Don’t be surprised if his odds drop if the media get a hint that he’s running for president.
