2023 AFL Grand Final: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Grand Final Predictions:
- Brisbane to win - 2.1 with Bluebet
- Under 166.5 total points - 1.91 with Unibet
- Brody Mihocek to kick 3+ goals - 2.9 with Ladbrokes
When: Saturday, September 30, 2:30pm AEST
Where: Melbourne Cricket Ground
Watch: Seven Network, 7Plus
Best Odds: Collingwood 1.75, Brisbane Lions 2.1
Wherever Michael Voss is in the world after Carlton’s heartbreaking loss to Brisbane last week, we hope he’s not watching the television or newspapers which have had his much younger face plastered all over them as Brisbane’s last Premiership-winning captain.
Voss led his Brisbane Lions to consecutive Grand Final wins over Collingwood in 2002 and 2003 and they will soon meet on the final Saturday of the season for the first time since then, with Collingwood searching for their first flag in 13 years and betting sites expect them to come out on top.
It’s only fitting that the top-two sides from the home and away season will duke it out at the MCG for the 2023 AFL Premiership, though it’s the first time since 2014 first and second went all the way!
AFL betting sites are locked and loaded for their busiest day of the year and we’ve got our three best AFL Grand Final tips to end the season on a high.
The Numbers That Matter
- Brisbane scored the most points per game (95.3) of all clubs in 2023
- The Lions won five of their last six games as pre-match outsiders
- Joe Daniher (x5) and Bobby Hill (x4) kicked their respective team’s opening goal more than any other player
- Charlie Cameron’s last four appearances v Collingwood (most recent first): 4.0, 6.1, 1.0, 6.0
The 20-Year Wait Will End
The only thing that stands between Brisbane and their fourth Premiership as the Lions is the venue, where they have a W1 L11 record in the Chris Fagan era.
Fagan said earlier this year he is “acutely aware” of their record at the MCG, describing the ground as “a little bit wider and a little bit longer” before insisting that his side don’t play the ground but the opposition of the day.
It’s a win rate too poor to ignore, but the sole exception - which came against Melbourne in last year’s semi-final the week before they were obliterated by eventual Premiers Geelong at the same ground - shows they are capable of winning high pressure football in front of a hostile crowd.
If football really is all about the opposition and the surroundings, they’ve got this one covered. Brisbane handed Collingwood two of their five losses in 2023, albeit at The Gabba and Marvel Stadium, as part of six consecutive head-to-head wins.
The Lions lead the league for inside 50s and are ahead of Collingwood on other key metrics such as clearances, contested possessions and contested marks, and marks inside 50.
They don’t call the third quarter of the Grand Final “the Premiership quarter” for no reason. The last 10 Premiers ‘won’ this quarter and it’s a period in which the Lions have particularly excelled, booting 31 third quarter goals to 21 across their five consecutive victories.
The manner in which they came from behind to run over the top of Carlton last week was a replica of the first of their two wins against the Magpies, where they kicked six goals to nought in the second term to erase a quarter-time deficit.
The only thing against them here is venue form and an overwhelmingly pro-Magpie crowd, but on the balance of all of the important factors noted above, Brisbane are a great price.
Tip: Brisbane to win - 2.1 with Bluebet
Back Unders On The Total Points Line
Finals matches can often be conservative arm wrestles and we’re of the opinion that, especially the way Collingwood has been scoring in recent weeks, this will be no doubt.
The total points line has moved up a few points in the week leading up to the first bounce, which only gives us more leeway to tackle the ‘unders’ for a handicap that Collingwood’s last three matches has failed to clear by a long way.
Anything near a repeat of the Magpies’ two finals this year, where they came out on top with scores of 60 and 58, sees this sail home smoothly.
Granted, the Lions have been the most prolific scoring side in the competition this year, but across their last 10 appearances at the MCG they’re averaging just 67 points per game, and even that might be enough to edge out a thrilling Grand Final!
Tip: Under 166.5 total points - 1.91 with Unibet
A Grand Final Display Worth Mihocek-ing Out
West Coast kept him quiet with 1.1 in the 2018 Grand Final, and it’s not often at all that he pops up with bags of goals in September, but the combination of venue and opposition could just be what Brody Mihocek needs to make a stellar contribution.
There are only two Magpies players who registered more than two 3+ goal hauls at the MCG this year: Jamie Elliott did it on three occasions, and Mihocek five.
He also averages a healthy 2.29 goals per game against the Lions, with returns of 3.1 at The Gabba earlier this year and 2.3 under the roof of Docklands in Round 23.
The 30-year-old was on fire during Collingwood’s eight-game winning streak in the first half of the season, booting 22 goals in that period, and should be hungry and primed to avenge the 2018 loss to the Eagles that still stings the Magpies faithful.
Tip: Brody Mihocek to kick 3+ goals - 2.9 with Ladbrokes
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