AFL Betting Tips Round 13: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
- Western Bulldogs-Brisbane over 170.5 points - 1.9 With BlueBet
- St Kilda-GC either team by under 15.5 points - 2.65 With PlayUp
- Collingwood-Melbourne under 165.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
It was yet another profitable round last week for readers of our regular AFL betting blog, which with three successful picks returned a modest profit of about 12% thanks in part to Christian Petracca getting some disposals under his belt in Alice Springs.
The King’s Birthday weekend in Victoria means that AFL betting sites will be kept busy across five consecutive matchdays, starting with a quiet bottom-six clash in Adelaide and building up to two blockbuster matches at the MCG on Sunday evening and Monday afternoon.
In a competition that continues to add more high profile matches by the year, Essendon and Carlton have secured themselves a new annual marquee fixture on the Sunday night prior to the King’s Birthday public holiday in June, where they will join the wonderful fundraising efforts that Melbourne and Collingwood have led for several years now in the ‘Fight MND’ campaign.
Add to that a couple of fixtures between some sides fighting hard to get back into the top eight, one of which has attracted our attention, and it makes for a particularly fascinating round of footy.
So irrespective of whether or not we pick up another handy collect through our three AFL best bets and three popular player props for Round 13, make sure you donate to the cause and help the 10th annual Big Freeze reach its $3m target!
Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
The Friday night program will see a resurgent Western Bulldogs side look to propel themselves into the top eight on percentage, against a struggling Brisbane Lions team that can’t string together consecutive wins to save themselves at the moment.
The Bulldogs are on a seven-game winning streak at home to Brisbane, whether at Marvel Stadium or Mars Stadium in Ballarat, and certainly have the superior form, having recently defeated Collingwood and GWS in the last three weeks.
That’s why AFL betting apps have rated them as very warm favourites at an unattractive price, but there was another major market that caught our eye for a couple of reasons.
Backing matches involving the Bulldogs to finish ‘overs’ has been one of the most profitable plays of recent weeks thanks in part to them scoring a healthy 88+ points in five of their last seven games.
For that reason, six of their last seven games cleared the main total points handicap, so it’s one you will do well to keep an eye on if other stats stack up in its favour.
These two teams are averaging a combined 177 points scored per game in 2024, well above the mark of 170.5 set by most Australian betting sites, and should relish the conditions under the Marvel Stadium roof where 63% of games this season have seen 172+ total points scored.
You could also do worse than to have a sneaky little play on Lions rookie Logan Morris to record a fourth consecutive multiple-goal haul, especially when there is better than three dollars available at Ladbrokes.
Best Bet: Over 170.5 total points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Logan Morris to kick 2+ goals - 3.05 With Ladbrokes
St Kilda v Gold Coast, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
We’re staying at the Marvel Stadium for our second game, which is one of a handful of games rated by bookmakers to be decided by a single-digit margin.
No team has been involved in more games to have a margin of fewer than 15.5 points than St Kilda this year (eight of their 12 matches), so we’re happy to agree with the markets and take the traditional ‘tri bet’ which pays out should either team win by a 1-15 point margin.
Just make sure your chosen bookmaker also includes the draw in that option - since there have already been three of them in 2024!
The Saints have had the wood over the Gold Coast Suns at Marvel over the years, winning six out of seven head-to-heads at the venue, but the Suns have been improving under Damien Hardwick and started the round in the top eight after winning four of their last six.
The one thing holding them back is their travelling form - they’re still yet to win away from the Gold Coast or Darwin - but the ‘favourites’ tag they narrowly hold here sits well with them, underlined by their 6-0 record in 2024.
St Kilda, on the other hand, have lost five out of six games as pre-match outsiders. We’re inclined to sit on the fence with this one and hope the bookies are right in terms of a narrow margin.
Backing Gold Coast’s Ben King to score a bag of goals is always a popular play, so we’ve scanned the market to find an excellent price for him to kick 3+ goals for a seventh straight match.
Whereas some sites offer as little as 1.8 for the bet, both BlueBet and Ladbrokes were offering a much more appealing 2.1 at the time of writing.
Best Bet: Either team by under 15.5 points - 2.65 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Ben King to kick 3+ goals - 2.10 With Ladbrokes
Collingwood v Melbourne, Monday, 3:20pm (AEST)
Melbourne’s long weekend ends with a tasty annual fixture that they won in a boilover last year, before the eventual premiers Collingwood got the ultimate revenge in the qualifying finals.
Whilst last weekend’s blowout at the hands of Fremantle in the red centre was another shocking effort that has contributed to them remaining outside the top eight, a 3-1 record as underdogs shows they can give a good account of themselves against higher-ranked opposition.
This has been a matchup that has typically been low scoring in recent years which attracted us to take a look at the total points market.
Seven of the last eight matches between these sides, only one of which had shortened quarters during the Covid pandemic, finished with fewer than the 165.5 total points set by AFL betting sites.
In addition to that, Melbourne finished the previous round third in the league for 2024 when it came to fewest total points per game - just 155.8.
The threat of a possible late shower could also drag the score down a fraction, but nothing significant.
These odds may not be particularly exciting to some punters, but if you’re looking at Bayley Fritsch’s goal scoring ability as an avenue to boost your same game multi, Bluebet has got you covered with a comparatively generous price of 1.55.
He has booted 2+ goals in almost all of his last 10 games at the MCG, so it looks to be a solid investment.
Best Bet: Under 165.5 total points - 1.9 With Unibet
Player Prop: Bayley Fritsch to kick 2+ goals - 1.55 With BlueBet
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