AFL Betting Tips Round 14: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 14 Predictions:
- Brisbane Lions -27.5 Points - 1.9 With Bet365
- GWS-Fremantle Either Team By Under 15.5 Points - 2.65 With PlayUp
- Carlton v Gold Coast: Under 159.5 Points - 1.9 With Bluebet
- Western Bulldogs By 1-39 Points - 2.28 With PlayUp
A perfect four out of four best bets as well as a successful player prop last week would no doubt have excited our loyal readers and filled their pockets over the King’s Birthday long weekend!
The third of four split rounds will be a television viewer’s delight with no overlaps across the four days of action, opening up with an important game between Port Adelaide and Geelong that will have ramifications both for the top two and top eight.
While the reduced number of matches provides fewer opportunities to find some betting value, we believe we’ve identified another four best plays across betting sites that will produce another winning weekend, starting in Brisbane on Friday evening.
Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans, Friday, 7.50pm (AEST)
The Brisbane Lions (W8 L4) were clinging onto a top four position by percentage only after back-to-back away losses and will be hoping that a return home - where they remain undefeated (W5) with an average winning margin of 35 points - will be the thing they need to reset and return back to winning ways.
Out-of-form seniors Daniel Rich and Jack Gunston took responsibility for some poor performances against Adelaide and Hawthorn by omitting themselves from selection indefinitely, a move that coach Chris Fagan described as “a circuit breaker”.
Brisbane’s long-term form, which saw them cover the pre-match line on AFL betting sites in eight of their first 10 games of the season, warrants confidence in them bouncing back against a side three wins currently behind them.
That is particularly so when the Lions’ five home wins this season were all against clubs above the Sydney Swans (W5 L7) on the ladder after last round.
Since opening their season with a round one demolition of Gold Coast at Heritage Bank Stadium, Sydney have lost three of four matches at an opposition venue, with a last-gasp win gifted to them by North Melbourne’s interchange infraction the only exception.
The Swans have lost against the line in eight of their 12 games, are averaging just 74 points a game, and have lost four of their last five matches at The Gabba against all opponents.
No man will be more pleased to return to Brisbane than Joe Daniher, who has been Brisbane’s top goalscorer in four of five outings this year with an average of 3.8 goals per game.
Tip: Brisbane Lions -27.5 Points - 1.9 With Bet365
Value Play: Joe Daniher To Kick 3+ Goals - 2.25 With Unibet
GWS Giants v Fremantle Dockers, Saturday, 4.35pm (AEST)
Fewer clubs have seen more games end with close margins than the GWS Giants (W5, L8) and Fremantle Dockers (W6, L6) this season, and PlayUp are expecting those trends to continue in western Sydney as these sides fight to break into the top eight this month.
It’s the first time since 2017 that the sides will meet at Giants Stadium, with the last six fixtures taking place either in Perth (2-1 to Fremantle) or Canberra (also 2-1 to Fremantle).
While the margins in that slate of games have not been in keeping with what we’re expecting here, none of the four clashes since 2020 have seen a side breach a score of 100+ points.
GWS have seen either team win by fewer than 16 points in seven of their last 11 matches and a minority (six) of games all season with the same leader at the end of each quarter, owing in part to some inconsistent performances where they have completed the full ‘wire to wire’ win just twice this year.
Fremantle’s supporters have not been spared from the tension of some tight contests, with last week’s 15-point loss to Richmond their fifth game of 2023 to fall under the 15.5 point margin band.
Jake Riccardi’s improved efficiency in recent weeks has seen him boot 2+ goals in three of his last six outings, so the 2.85 price on offer for another performance appeals.
Tip: Either Team By Under 15.5 Points - 2.65 With PlayUp
Value Play: Jake Riccardi To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.85 With Ladbrokes
Carlton Blues v Gold Coast Suns, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
Round 14 could be Michael Voss’ last in charge of Carlton Blues (W4 D1 L8) if they succumb to what would be a seventh consecutive loss, particularly given the talented playing group he oversees and the expectations of finals foisted upon him during pre-season.
Only Richmond had a poorer record as pre-match favourites than Carlton’s (W3 L5) going into this weekend, which among other concerns makes them quite difficult to trust against the Suns.
They’ve just one win from their last nine games at the MCG (D1 L7) and that doesn’t go any way towards establishing a home ground advantage.
The Suns continued their march up the ladder by getting the better of the Bulldogs and Adelaide in Darwin, and five wins from their last seven games cannot be ignored.
They’ve made just 16 appearances at the MCG throughout their history, defeating Collingwood in 2021 in one of their three games there this decade.
A W2 L3 record at opposition venues this season doesn’t inspire, and we’re instead looking to Carlton’s record of a fraction under 151 total points in 2023, as well as six of the last seven head-to-heads producing fewer than 155 points, as one of our plays of the week with Bluebet.
Levi Casboult is expected to play his second game against his former club and could bob up early on the scoresheet again, having recorded the opening goal in two of his last three games.
Tip: Under 159.5 Total Points - 1.9 With Bluebet
Value Play: Levi Casboult First Goalscorer - 19.0 With Ladbrokes
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)
The late Sunday afternoon time slot often draws a lot of derision and satire for the low-quality football it can serve up, but there’ll be nothing for the Western Bulldogs (W7 L6) to joke about as they attempt to arrest their fall out of the top eight.
Concern is setting in at Whitten Oval after the Dogs failed to cover the pre-game line in three consecutive outings (L3), two of which took their win rate as favourites to an unenviable 50% (W3 L3).
Three straight wins against GWS, Hawthorn and Carlton earlier in the season - who went into this round occupying the three places directly above next opponents North Melbourne (W2 L11) on the ladder - suggest they should collect an important four Premiership points here.
But each of those three wins were by a margin of fewer than 40 points, and if that form line stacks up there could be some good value in attacking the 1-39 point bracket instead of the line market, which at around 30 points could be a difficult one to predict.
Cody Weightman kicked himself back into form with three against Port Adelaide last week and has recorded bags of five and four goals in his two games against the Kangaroos, so check out his 3.6 odds to grab 3+ Goals with Ladbrokes.
Tip: Western Bulldogs By 1-39 Points - 2.28 With PlayUp
Value Play: Cody Weightman To Kick 3+ Goals - 3.6 With Ladbrokes
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