AFL Betting Tips Round 18: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 18 Predictions:
- Brisbane Lions by 1-39 points - 2.65 With Bet365
- Collingwood Magpies -40.5 points - 1.90 With PlayUp
- Port Adelaide -5.5 points - 1.90 With Bluebet
- Essendon by 1-39 points - 2.45 With Ladbrokes
Readers of this regular blog would have finished in front last week thanks to the Bombers as well as an anticipated low scoring affair between Melbourne and St Kilda.
Here’s hoping we can continue to take some weekly profits into the pointy end of the 2023 AFL season with some of our best bets for Round 18, which features some juicy top eight clashes.
Here are what we believe to be some high value plays amongst the best Australian betting sites offering AFL odds. As always, we’ll be sitting out of the Thursday night games and will begin our four-game program with Friday night footy at the ‘G - is there anywhere better to start?
Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Brisbane Lions (W12 L4) have rarely earned the privilege of being able to sing the team song under the expanses of the Ponsford Stand, but their 12-game losing streak at the MCG was consigned to history when they defeated the Melbourne Demons (W10 L6) in last season’s semi-finals.
Melbourne put back-to-back losses behind them last week against St Kilda but still have more questions to answer after winning just one of their three games against fellow top four clubs this season, including an 11-point loss to the Lions at The Gabba despite kicking 13.4.
After they fell just a couple points short last week of covering the line for an 11th time this year (and they would have been the second club to do so after Essendon), the Lions are on a four-game winning streak in which they’re conceding an average of just 56 points and have amassed at least 24 scoring shots in each game.
This time they’re up against the second-best defence in the league (Melbourne concede 70 points a game on average), and coach Chris Fagan insists the Round 13 loss to Hawthorn at the MCG was not a matter of venue but came during a period of poor form.
We fancy they’ll edge ahead on this occasion, and with less than one goal difference between the 1-39 margin and the +3.5 point line, the value certainly lies with the 1-39 play.
Melbourne’s tall defenders such as Steven May are likely to be keeping Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood busy, which could open up an opportunity for small and dynamic forward Charlie Cameron to record his sixth 3+ goal haul of the season.
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 1-39 points - 2.65 With Bet365
Player Prop: Charlie Cameron to kick 3+ goals - 3.5 With Unibet
Collingwood Magpies v Fremantle Dockers, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
An enormous percentage of 137 had the Collingwood Magpies (W14 L2) sitting high at the top of the ladder after last week’s hard fought win over the Bulldogs, in which they ominously assumed control of the game with six goals in the so-called “Premiership quarter”.
Being set a line of about 40 points by Australian AFL betting sites against the Fremantle Dockers (W7 L9) seems a fair number given they have an average winning margin of 44.5 points against clubs starting this round in the bottom half of the standings.
That said, there’s a little more in their favour. With a record of 17-1 from their last 18 home and away matches at the MCG, there’s no doubting that they’ll be a formidable task for an opposition that just last week couldn’t even cover +40 as favourites at home to Carlton.
Fremantle are back in the doldrums, losing four of their last five matches, whilst more importantly failing to cover the line in all four defeats.
Their last trip to the MCG was a 20-point semi-final loss to Collingwood in which they held the Magpies to just 79 points, but this time around they come in with the 15th worst defensive record in the league prior to this round.
Bet365 have set an interesting over/under mark of 28.5 disposals for Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw, whose disposal count has been 29 or higher in 10 consecutive games.
Tip: Collingwood Magpies -40.5 points - 1.90 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Andrew Brayshaw over 28.5 disposals - 1.87 With Ladbrokes
Carlton Blues v Port Adelaide Power, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
Those who have been following this blog throughout the year may remember just how profitable Port Adelaide were for us in the first half of the season, particularly when Australian bookies priced in a supposed ‘away ground disadvantage’ at Marvel Stadium.
Three thumping 50+ point wins for the Carlton Blues (W7 D1 L8) have them back in finals contention amongst some pundits, and it’s just reward as the senior players rallied around their embattled coach and lifted their efforts on the field.
But - and forgive us for mentioning this pertinent fact once again - the Blues have not beaten any side starting this round in the top eight since Geelong in Round 2, and Premiership contenders Port Adelaide Power (W14 L2) will promise a much sterner test than Fremantle, Hawthorn and the Gold Coast.
Port Adelaide start this weekend as one of four clubs to have covered the line at least 10 times in 2023, have an imposing 8-1 record as favourites, whilst wins over St Kilda and Western Bulldogs this year stretched their record at Docklands to a perfect nine from nine since the pandemic.
They appear to have significantly long odds at one of their strongest venues against a club yet to prove themselves against the best of the best, and the 5.5 point line looks quite safe.
For a juicy player prop, we’re looking at one of two Port Adelaide players to have kicked the opening goal of a match three times in 2023: ‘SPP’ has done so despite having not having more than two goals to his name in a match since the Round 3 Showdown.
Tip: Port Adelaide -5.5 points - 1.90 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Sam Powell-Pepper First Goalscorer - 21.0 With Unibet
Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants, Saturday, 7:40pm (AEST)
At time of writing, Ladbrokes were offering the best price on the market (either as a ‘Same Game Multi’ (SGM) or a match double) for two plays that we simply couldn’t resist.
It’s almost as if the Adelaide Crows (W8 L8) are completely different sides at home and away in 2023, so much so that their last nine matches have been won by the home side of the day.
No interstate side has been able to conquer them at the Adelaide Oval since Richmond in Round 2, which followed a 16-point loss to next opponents GWS Giants (W8 L8) at Giants Stadium.
They’ve enjoyed gluttonous wins at home to hapless West Coast and North Melbourne in recent weeks, but it was home victories against Brisbane and St Kilda earlier in the season that keeps them as favourites for this clash.
The Crows have been wonderfully efficient in front of goal, helping them to an average of 97 points per game and 75% of their matches finishing ‘overs’.
However, GWS bring plenty of credentials into this match and likely won’t make it easy for their hosts, coming in off the back of four consecutive wins albeit only one of which was against a side above them on the ladder.
They’ve cleared 80 points in all but one of their last eight outings, have a 5-3 record on the road, and should also draw confidence from last season’s 59-point win away to the Crows.
Toby Greene and Tom Green, who have been in tiptop form of late, were dominant against the Crows in Round 1. Jesse Hogan booted three goals on that day, and after four last week against Hawthorn, is primed to repeat it.
Tip: GWS win/over 170.5 point SGM - 6.37 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Jesse Hogan to kick 3+ goals - 3.55 With Unibet
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