AFL Betting Tips Round 2: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round Two Predictions:
- St Kilda-Collingwood under 161.5 points - 1.87 With Bet365
- Fremantle -17.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
- GWS by 40+ points - 1.62 With Ladbrokes
Whilst Brisbane and Carlton have the week off after kicking off proceedings in Queensland two weeks ago, there are eight games of AFL this week to sink our teeth into in the hope of finding a couple of winners.
There is the very real threat of the reigning premiers going 0-3, particularly as they were mauled by the Swans at their beloved MCG last week, whilst the Swans themselves are shaping up as one of the most impressive teams of the competition so far.
Some of the best AFL betting sites are offering as many as 400 different markets on AFL nowadays, so there will be no shortage of opportunities to find both profit and value.
As well as another trio of games at the home of football, the competition will spread its wings from Adelaide to Perth once again, whilst Ballarat’s Mars Stadium will make its first appearance of 2024 when the Bulldogs host the Suns at their second home.
Let’s hope we can go one better than last week, when landing three out of six picks for a -12% return. Good luck!
St Kilda v Collingwood, Thursday, 7:30pm (AEDT)
Another week, another Thursday evening spectacular at the MCG - and if this one is anything like last week’s Thursday night match, it’s going to be memorable!
It probably comes as no surprise that Collingwood have won five of the last six meetings between these clubs given the gulf in success between them recently.
But only 10 points separate the sides across most exchange betting sites after Collingwood’s disastrous start to the season in which they failed to cover the line twice, once as favourite and again as an underdog.
St Kilda were left to rue poor kicking and missed opportunities in Geelong last weekend but were otherwise admirable in defeat given their absences, and get two-time All-Australian Jack Sinclair back in their ranks.
Where we are instead looking is the total points market, with two very defensively sharp sides coming together under the lights at the MCG, where seven of the last eight night matches finished ‘unders’.
St Kilda have conceded fewer points per game than any other team since the beginning of 2023 - 73 on average - whilst scoring fewer than 77 per game themselves in return during that same period.
It should be a chance for Collingwood to sharpen up defensively after conceding consecutive tons.
Best Bet: Under 161.5 total points - 1.87 With Bet365
Player Prop: Lachie Schultz to kick 2+ goals - 2.40 With Unibet
North Melbourne v Fremantle, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEDT)
Rumours emerged during the week that the AFL were immensely concerned about the near-zero sales of non-member tickets to this fixture at Marvel Stadium between two sides that do not scream “blockbuster” let alone “sellout”!
The early season optimism amongst Roos fans didn’t last long when they were outclassed by GWS north of the border, and the 39-point margin could have been so much worse were it not for the Giants’ profligacy in front of goal (17.19) and North Melbourne at least being remarkably efficient with their 17 shots (13.4).
As many as five North Melbourne players were reportedly training separately during the week because of an illness that threatens to spread throughout the squad, with George Wardlaw and Callum Coleman-Jones two players who could be gametime decisions as a result.
The line of 18.5 with betting sites looks a bit flattering to North given that Fremantle are coming here off the back of a strong 23-point win over Brisbane in which they kicked nine goals to one across the second and third terms, when it mattered most.
They are improving as a travelling side, winning four of their last seven games outside of Perth last year.
Whilst they were unsuccessful in both matches at Marvel Stadium last year, three wins and a draw from five trips in 2022 demonstrate that Docklands is anything but a graveyard for the Dockers.
If you’re looking for a solid boost to your same game multis, you can get a market-best 1.40 at PlayUp for Roos ball machine Luke Davies-Uniacke to rack up 25+ disposals for an eighth consecutive time.
He went on to clear 30+ only twice in that seven-game streak, so it’s hard to chase the larger collect with any great deal of confidence.
Best Bet: Fremantle -17.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
Player Prop: Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ disposals - 1.4 With Ladbrokes
West Coast v GWS Giants, Sunday, 6:50pm (AEDT)
Poor hapless West Coast suffered their 17th 40+ point defeat since the beginning of 2023 last week when going down by 50 away to Port Adelaide, with a scoreline that was somewhat generous to them given Port amassed 40 scoring shots for their 16 goals.
Thursday’s news that co-captain and gun onballer Oscar Allen needs knee cartilage surgery and will miss at least eight weeks confirms that there’s still a horrendous curse at Lathlain Park that needs exorcising, and fast.
It means that all they have left to hold onto for inspiration is a 19-point win over the Giants that will, next Tuesday, be one year to the day.
That snapped a nine-game losing streak across two seasons but was followed up with one almost twice as long (16), at the same time that the Giants continued to build themselves up as a potential grand finalist.
Since we’re all about prioritising low-odds winners ahead of high-odds losing plays, we have shopped around for one of the best prices available for the 40+ margin rather than playing the main handicap.
As far as player performances are concerned, Toby Greene seems to love filling up his goal column against weaker opposition, although he hasn’t quite been able to fire this year.
Last year he booted 3+ goals in 11 of his 15 winning appearances, including four against the Eagles in Round 2.
Best Bet: GWS by 40+ points - 1.62 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Toby Greene to kick 3+ goals - 2.1 With Unibet
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