AFL Betting Tips Round 23: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 23 Predictions:
- Gold Coast-Carlton Under 165.5 points - 1.9 With Bet365
- Adelaide-Sydney either team by under 15.5 points - 2.8 With PlayUp
- Western Bulldogs -65.5 points - 1.9 With Bluebet
- Port Adelaide HT/FT double - 1.94 With Ladbrokes
As the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup sets off into the sunset, the AFL finals can be seen making their way to shore with just two rounds of home and away competition remaining in another fantastic season of footy.
Friday and Saturday evenings both feature clashes between clubs in or verging on positions in that top eight, highlighted by a Friday night clash under the roof that could determine the minor Premiership race.
But there are four other fixtures across the weekend that have interested us from a wagering perspective, particularly with betting sites offering up some interesting lines and handicaps that we think are a little off the mark.
It’s on the Gold Coast on Saturday afternoon where we begin our slate of best bets and player props to fill your weekend multis for Round 23 during another enormous weekend of sport.
Gold Coast Suns v Carlton Blues, Saturday, 2:10pm (AEST)
It’s season over for the Gold Coast Suns (W9 L12) as their quest for an inaugural finals appearance once again went bust.
Loyal midfielder David Swallow will this weekend move to joint-third for most career games played without a single final whilst he and his teammates aim to eclipse their highest finish of 12th in 2014 with an unlikely win at home to in-form Carlton Blues (W12 D1 L8).
Seven of their nine victories this season have been either on the Gold Coast or in Darwin, so if there’s anywhere they’ll shake up an opponent it’ll probably be at home, where their victims this year include Geelong, St Kilda and Brisbane.
But it’s the total points line set by AFL betting sites that caught our eye, particularly with these two sides 15th and 17th respectively in the league when it comes to total points scored or conceded in their season to date.
Backing the ‘unders’ for Carlton’s games is one of the hottest bets in the sport at the moment and is one we’ve been following with great success in recent weeks, with 10 of their last 13 matches falling below the 165.5 mark.
All but one of the eight games played at Heritage Bank Stadium in 2023 also fell under that particular score, so on the basis of those numbers, it appears to be a significant edge in favour of going under.
So too does George Hewett’s disposal count: Bet365 have set his over/under mark at 25.5, despite him clearing 26+ touches in just six of 17 appearances this year.
Best Bet: Under 165.5 total points - 1.9 With Bet365
Player Prop: George Hewett under 25.5 disposals - 1.87 With Unibet
Adelaide Crows v Sydney Swans, Saturday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Whilst the eyes of millions of Australians will be trained upon the Matildas’ third-place playoff against Sweden in Brisbane, a healthy South Australian crowd will be filling the Adelaide Oval hoping their Crows can keep their season alive.
A bit of fortune in other games will be required to ensure that Adelaide could sneak into the top eight with 48 points, but they’ve already got a significantly healthy percentage that will almost certainly be boosted further next week against the West Coast Eagles.
2023 could end up being a case of ‘what if’ after five losses by fewer than 20 points in their last eight games, but it’s hard to imagine they won’t be coming out all guns blazing against a Sydney Swans outfit that is peaking at the perfect time.
The Swans are the in-form side of the competition alongside Carlton, having now won five in a row that includes three wins away from home and three still in contention for the finals.
They’re up against an opposition with a 5-1 record as home favourites this season, but their superb travelling record in 2023 also makes them an appealing prospect.
We’ll be hoping exchange betting sites, who have given them a two-goal head start, are spot on here and that Sydney notch up a 10th game this year with a margin of less than 16 points - which would be the second-most of all clubs.
After three goals against Gold Coast and four last week in Brisbane, 2.15 for Adelaide’s Shane McAdam to register a third consecutive multiple goal haul is an excellent price, and one that’s well above the rest of the market.
Best Bet: Either team by under 15.5 points - 2.8 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Shane McAdam to kick 2+ goals - 2.15 With Ladbrokes
Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
The Western Bulldogs (W11 L10) may need 13 wins this year to guarantee themselves a fifth consecutive finals appearance, which would include their first win in Geelong in 20 years, and they should be picking up number 12 at home to the hopeless West Coast Eagles (W2 L19) at Marvel Stadium on Sunday.
It’s a timely opportunity to boost their percentage, particularly with chasing sides like Geelong and Adelaide already boasting gargantuan percentages that could come into play next Sunday night.
Whilst the intent will be there, the form is not. Losses to Hawthorn and the two Sydney sides in the last month have left their season teetering on the edge, prompting head coach Luke Beveridge to lament a “stark difference between their very best and what the boys showed” against the Hawks.
But a key difference is that when the Bulldogs win, they often make a big statement when doing so.
That is illustrated by covering the pre-match line in 10 of their 11 wins this season - whether as favourites or otherwise - and it’s a reasonable argument to make that despite their recent slip-ups, they’re still a better club than the likes of Fremantle, Sydney and Adelaide, all of whom have put up 100+ point margins against the Eagles recently.
One Bulldog who will need to get amongst the goals if they’re to join the club is Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. He has booted 3+ goals on five separate occasions this year, with the Dogs winning four times, whilst three of those bags have been picked up across his last seven appearances.
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs -65.5 points - 1.9 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to kick 3+ goals - 1.8 With Unibet
Fremantle Dockers v Port Adelaide Power, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)
Finals chances had already been vanquished for the Fremantle Dockers (W9 L12) before they became the most recent side to give beleaguered West Coast a whipping.
The season has illustrated that thrashing the Eagles is not necessarily an immediate precursor to finding form and we expect this to be yet another example despite the Dockers enjoying a five-game winning streak in Perth against next opponents Port Adelaide (W15 L6).
Freo’s only three wins since the start of June (L7) have come against clubs starting this round outside the top eight, a period that includes four losses from five games as the home side in Perth.
Port Adelaide finally put a month of misery behind them with a booming win over the Giants, and they still maintain a respectable 60% win rate as the visitors of the day in 2023.
They also head into the round as one of four sides to have collected at least 10 half-time/full-time doubles this season, and last week’s seven goal first quarter suggests they could reclaim their status as one of the league’s best starters.
Whilst his side may not come out on top, our favoured player bet for the final match of the round is for Fremantle’s Lachie Schultz to kick at least two goals for a fifth straight week.
Best Bet: Port Adelaide HT/FT double - 1.94 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Lachie Schultz to kick 2+ goals - 2.2 With Unibet
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